Ukraine War Update NEWS
Table of Contents 📖
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"These are just normal young lads doing something that they feel they have to do and it's not their fault that they'll die. They are protecting their homeland that's been invaded by an aggressor. It's such a shame, this waste of human life that is completely the fault of the Russians here."
Hello Team!
Jonathan opens the video, noting he is having some trouble speaking coherently this morning. He will start with the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses from the previous day.
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Russian Losses
- 800 Russian personnel lost, which is high but lower than the spike seen yesterday
- Losses in tanks, APVs, and artillery are also down significantly from yesterday
- No losses reported in MLRS, anti-aircraft, drones, cruise missiles, and only 1 piece of special equipment
- Jonathan speculates the lower numbers could be due to it being Monday and a weekend lag in reporting, or the weather
- Despite the lower equipment losses, the high personnel losses indicate heavy activity and losses for Russia in certain areas
Visually Confirmed Losses
Looking at visually confirmed losses from Andrew Perpetua's mapping:
- Ratio firmly favors Ukraine at 4-5:1
- Ukraine lost a recovery vehicle, a drone, artillery pieces, and some armored vehicles
- Russia lost a truck with autocannon, electronic warfare system, artillery, tanks, IFVs, trucks and an APC
- Jonathan notes these ratios are what Ukraine needs to prevail against Russia's larger force, not one-off amazing days
Russian Commander Shoots Own Soldier
In occupied Berdyansk, a Russian commander shot and killed one of his own soldiers in front of the unit. The murdered soldier was described by the others as "an ordinary decent man." The commander claimed it was due to an alleged insult, shooting the soldier 5 times. This highlights the lack of accountability and value for life of their own troops in the Russian army.
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Strikes
The only news in this segment is Russia reporting an arson attack on a military commandant's office in occupied Crimea. A molotov cocktail was thrown at the door and a 62-year-old was later arrested. Jonathan notes there is usually more to cover here.
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Other Bits & Pieces - Kherson Area
- Footage of a Ukrainian ferry carrying a 155mm wheeled gun, possibly over the Dnipro river, which would be significant for Ukraine's logistics in eastern Kherson
- Combat footage from southwest of Krynky leading to the M14 highway where Ukraine is pushing. The footage is geolocated to the outskirts of the forest/village.
- JR's updated mapping shows the Ukrainian line around Krynky reduced, possibly an initial over-interpretation or Ukrainian pullback
- More footage of young Ukrainian soldiers crossing a river in the morning fog, likely the Dnipro. Jonathan reflects on the human tragedy of their likely deaths in coming days, through no fault of their own.
Russian "Regrouping" Announcement
Russian state media outlets RIA and TASS posted, then retracted, an announcement that Russian forces would "regroup to more advantageous positions" on the left bank of the Dnipro river. The timing of the message release may have been off. Analysts believe it signals some Russian retreats in that area due to Ukrainian pressure, though Ukraine's positions in Krynky may not be as advanced as first thought.
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BBC Report on Krynky
A BBC Russia article, based on interviews with Russian soldiers, provides insight into the difficult situation for Russian forces around Krynky on the left bank of the Dnipro:
- Ukraine broke through and occupied Krynky a few days ago, transferring heavy equipment
- Russian soldiers describe the fighting as "suicide" with 500 Ukrainians gaining a foothold
- Ukraine used small groups disguised as Russian personnel to infiltrate
- Russians are on duty constantly without replacement and have suffered heavy losses
- Communication issues have impacted Russian operations
- Overall a very challenging situation for the Russian side trying to dislodge the Ukrainians
Jonathan believes this Krynky area is a very positive frontline development for Ukraine as Russia struggles to get needed reinforcements there.
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Ukraine Intensifies Attacks on Russian Rear Areas
The ISW reports Ukraine has intensified attacks on Russian logistics and high-profile targets in occupied Ukraine and Russia, including:
- Killing of 3 Russian officers in Melitopol by local resistance
- Ukrainian drone attack sinking 2 Russian landing craft in Crimea
- Killing of a Russian proxy official in Luhansk
- Rocket strike in Skadovsk allegedly killing several high-ranking officers
Attacks since summer in Crimea/Black Sea have led to a "functional defeat" of Russia's Black Sea Fleet per the UK MOD, forcing it to move east from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk, adding 400km to their range. The Washington Post also reported Ukraine's security services were allegedly behind dozens of assassinations of Russian targets, including navy commander Razitsky and military blogger Tatarsky. So while Russia may be gaining ground on frontlines, Ukraine is having significant impact on Russian command, control and logistics in rear areas.
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Frontline Update
Looking at the mapping, most of the pins over the last 24-48 hours indicate Russian gains. Jonathan believes we are moving into a period of renewed Russian offensive posture. However, Ukraine reports the Russians are losing a lot of equipment in these assaults, particularly around Vuhledar, Novomykhailivka, and Avdiivka. So while Russia is gaining some ground, it has been a very costly month for them as they shift to offense.
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Wrap Up
Jonathan notes he focused more on frontline and equipment topics than news in this update. He signs off asking viewers to like, subscribe and share the video. More geopolitical coverage will be coming in the next parts.
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