Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: David Sacks, Post-Trump Ukraine Abandonment, Missile Strategy
Table of Contents 📖
"In modern politics, if someone is trying to sell you the mind virus of wokeism... what they are doing is getting you to concentrate on the wrong thing. It's a magician's sleight of hand."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:33⏩
Jonathan introduces the video - an "Extra nuggets and tidbits" Extra video.
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Mick Ryan on Ukraine's Evolving Strategic Strike System
🎦 00:33-04:35⏩
Jonathan discusses a thread by Mick Ryan (@WarintheFuture), retired Australian general, about Ukraine's recent attack on Crimea.
- Ukraine's attack on Crimea is part of its wider, adaptive strategic strike campaign, which aims to make the Russian military presence there untenable.
- Ukraine uses a sophisticated and evolving strategic strike system that utilises both Western and indigenously-produced missiles and drones.
- The most recent strike included the use of "Beaver", "Liutis" and refurbished Soviet-era Tu-143 drones.
- Ukraine's strategic strike campaign, along with the degradation of Russian oil refining capacity, appear to be the two highest priorities for the maturing Ukrainian strategic strike complex.
- Covert Shores recently published a summary of indigenously developed Ukrainian drones.
Cost-Effectiveness of Ukrainian vs Russian Missile Strategy
🎦 04:35-11:30⏩
Jonathan compares the effectiveness of Russian and Ukrainian missile strategies, noting that while Russia has achieved some success through sheer mass, Ukraine has been more strategic and effective with fewer resources: Russian Missile Strategy:
- Initially focused on breaking Ukrainian morale by targeting civilian infrastructure.
- Shifted to energy infrastructure, but this proved largely ineffective.
- More recently, targeting the Ukrainian military-industrial complex, but often using outdated intelligence and failing to prioritise military targets.
- Jonathan argues that Russia has been largely wasteful with its missiles and drones.
Ukrainian Missile Strategy:
- Started with limited capacity, relying on developing indigenous missiles and drones due to restrictions on using Western-supplied equipment within Russia.
- More targeted and precise, consistently hitting factories and military targets.
- Shows greater adaptability and learning throughout the war.
- Increasingly able to strike targets within Russia using its own indigenous missiles and drones.
Jonathan concludes that while Russia relies on mass, Ukraine has demonstrated greater strategic thinking and effectiveness with fewer resources. He believes that if Ukraine had access to a similar quantity of missiles and drones, the impact would be significant.
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David Sacks: Background and Pro-Russian Stance
🎦 11:30-14:13⏩
Jonathan expresses his disdain for David Sacks, an American entrepreneur and close friend of Elon Musk, criticising him for amplifying pro-Russian and anti-Ukrainian rhetoric on Twitter. Jonathan highlights Sacks' recent tweet, which baselessly accuses Ukraine of being behind the recent attack in Moscow.
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David Sacks: "Vatnik Soup" by Pekka Kaluyeniemi
🎦 14:13-35:28⏩
Jonathan delves into a "Vatnik Soup" exposé by Pekka Kalyuniemi that dissects David Sacks' pro-Russian stance.
- Highlights Sacks' lack of understanding of the history of the region and the roots of the conflict.
- Criticises Sacks for parroting the Russian narrative of endemic corruption in Ukraine without acknowledging its historical context and the efforts being made to address it.
- Questions Sacks' simplistic comparisons of US and Russian foreign policy, arguing that it's a false equivalency.
- Challenges Sacks' assertion that concerns about Russian nuclear escalation should prevent support for Ukraine, arguing that it's a dangerous argument that would allow Russia to act with impunity.
- Dispels Sacks' claims about US involvement in the 2014 Maidan Revolution and his suggestion that the Donbas conflict is a civil war, pointing to overwhelming evidence of Russian involvement.
Jonathan expresses frustration that influential figures like Sacks can control narratives on social media despite their ignorance and propensity for conspiracy theories.
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Viktor Orban and Donald Trump's Plan to End the War: Analysis of a ChrisO_Wiki Thread
🎦 36:01-47:06⏩
Jonathan dissects a thread by ChrisO_Wiki (@ChrisO_Wiki) on Twitter, which analyses Viktor Orban's claim that Donald Trump has a plan to end the war in Ukraine by cutting off US aid.
- The thread argues that Trump's plan, based on the assumption that Ukraine's resistance relies solely on US support, is flawed and would likely backfire.
- Cutting off US aid would embolden Putin, prolong the war, and lead to more Ukrainian territory being seized.
- Ukraine is not Afghanistan; it has a legitimate government, a united populace, and is receiving significant support from the EU and other allies.
- The thread suggests that Trump's plan could ultimately force European nations like France and Poland to intervene directly, escalating the conflict into a wider European war.
- Jonathan finds ChrisO_Wiki's analysis compelling, particularly the focus on the strategic importance of Odesa. He agrees that a Russian seizure of Odesa would be disastrous for Ukraine and likely trigger a European response.
Wrap Up
🎦 47:06-47:11⏩
Jonathan ends the video.
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