Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"This is what freedom looks like in Russia - you can't be on a bus and say to someone else 'Wagner X Y Z' without getting manhandled and beaten up - as an 87 year old man. It's just absolutely ridiculous."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:22⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to another video, a Ukraine War Update for 10/08/2024 - the first part of the day's updates. He is in a different time zone today.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian losses for 08/08/2024 from the Ukrainian General Staff
🎦 00:22-02:48⏩
Jonathan begins by going through the daily losses reported by the Ukrainian General staff - the caveat being these can't be verified. The figures (which are high and a significant increase) are:
- 1160 personnel
- 7 tanks
- 9 armoured fighting vehicles
- 69 artillery systems
- 1 multiple launch rocket system (MLRS)
- 2 air defence systems
- 82 vehicles and fuel tanks (a significant number)
- 20 pieces of special equipment
Jonathan notes the high number of vehicles and fuel tanks as the Russians appear to be using more of these (including quads, golf buggies and Bukhanka) to get closer to the front line for attacks/resupply. He also notes that the number of air defence systems destroyed is increasing, possibly due to the incursions into Kursk. Jonathan then reviews visually the losses reported by Oryx for 08/08/2024 and 09/08/2024, commenting that the list is extensive and visually dominated by artillery pieces. Jonathan concludes that the ratio of visually confirmed combat losses is 4:1 or 5:1 Ukrainian to Russian losses - very bad for Russia.
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Ukrainian losses for 08/08/2024 from Oryx
🎦 02:48-03:48⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian losses from Oryx, starting with Starlink terminals. These are included because they are communication devices and this category is of increasing interest. Jonathan notes they can be picked up for $299. The combat losses are minimal and include:
- 1 D-30 Howitzer
- 2 x T-64 tanks
- 1 Damaged Bradley
- 1 Humvee
- 2 x M113s (1 destroyed, 1 abandoned)
- 1 Cougar MRAP
- Some pickup trucks
Jonathan observes that Ukrainian losses are not high.
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Russian losses for 08/08/2024 from Oryx
🎦 03:48-07:11⏩
Jonathan then reviews the Russian losses from Oryx for 08/08/2024. He begins by observing that a significant amount of FPV footage has been released and speculates whether this is why there is a high number of damaged/destroyed artillery systems - primarily D-30 howitzers. Jonathan questions whether it is possible to tell if a howitzer with a damaged/destroyed barrel has been destroyed or damaged because although it is unusable, it could be repaired/replaced, so could be classed as damaged rather than destroyed. Jonathan lists the other Russian equipment losses which include:
- T-80BV, T-62 and T-72 tanks
- A number of destroyed infantry fighting vehicles including BMP-2s and BTR-82s.
- A destroyed assault shed.
- A destroyed BMP-2 which has been up-armoured with corrugated iron for protection.
- Tiger-M APCs
- Numerous Ural command trucks destroyed in the Kursk region (confirmed by Gimlers - a Telegram channel that posts footage of attacks)
- ATVs, Quads, Golf Buggies
- A significant number of damaged and destroyed civilian vehicles.
Jonathan concludes by reiterating that this is very bad news for the Russians, who are suffering serious attrition.
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Ukrainian Losses for 09/08/2024 from Oryx
🎦 07:11-07:34⏩
Jonathan moves on to the 09/08/2024 losses, starting with Ukrainian losses which include:
- Communication equipment
- 2 Abandoned boats
- Around 15 pieces of other military equipment.
Russian Losses for 09/08/2024 from Oryx
🎦 07:34-10:22⏩
Jonathan moves on to the Russian losses for 09/08/2024 and notes the loss ratio is around 1.5:1 Ukrainian to Russian. Russian Losses include:
- 1 x Damaged KA-52 Alligator
- 1 x Damaged MI-8 Hip Helicopter (damaged by an FPV drone)
Jonathan notes that there has been confirmation that a KA-52 Alligator has been destroyed and there were earlier claims that a second KA-52 was destroyed. Fighter Bomber (a pro-Russian milblogger) has confirmed the loss of a KA-52 by posting an "eternal flight" message which is how they announce the death of a pilot. Tim White has also said that the Russians have admitted to losing a KA-52 in Kursk. Jonathan then summarises the remainder of the Russian losses from 09/08/2024, which include:
- Artillery systems (a mixture) including a Grad
- A destroyed T-90M (Russia's most modern tank)
- T-80BVM and other T-80 variants
- BMP-1, BMP-2, BMP-3, BTR-80 infantry fighting vehicles.
- Numerous trucks (destroyed/damaged)
- Motorcycles and civilian vehicles (destroyed/damaged)
Jonathan concludes by stating that a significant amount of equipment has been lost by the Russians who are suffering significant attrition.
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Ukrainian Special Forces raid on Kimberne Spit - Kherson
🎦 10:22-15:52⏩
Jonathan talks about the footage that has been released showing Russian POWs being captured in the Kursk region. He then reports that The Korn Group who are part of the 160th Mechanised Brigade are claiming that 490 Russian personnel were killed in the attack on a column near Rilsk (footage was shown of the attack yesterday). Jonathan then talks about footage showing Ukrainian Special Forces operating on the Kimberne Spit. They are using jetskis to attack Russian positions. The attack took place on 09/08/2024. 6 Russian Armoured vehicles were destroyed and 3 dozen Russian personnel were killed during the raid. The amphibious operation was carried out by various units:
- Chimera
- Aratta
- Stugna
- Paragon
- Siberian Battalion
- Terror
- Timur unit (part of the Ministry of Defence)
The operation was supported by the Ukrainian Navy as well as other security and defence components. Jonathan comments that it was a significant operation. The footage shows:
- Ukrainian special forces attacking Russian fortifications.
- Ukrainian special forces attacking a marine station.
- Ukrainian special forces raising a Ukrainian flag at the Suvorov Monument on the spit.
The attacks took place near Ochakiv, between the Bug River and the Dnipro River, just before the Dnipro flows into the Black Sea. Jonathan notes that the Ukrainians are coordinating attacks in various places to keep the Russians on their toes and that there are claims that the Ukrainians might be attacking across the border into Belgorod. The Ukrainians could use the spit to establish a bridgehead to push towards Kherson but Jonathan believes this might be a bit too optimistic. He does however think that if Russia diverts resources from elsewhere, the Ukrainians could exploit this.
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HIMARS now being used more liberally by Ukraine
🎦 15:52-17:08⏩
Jonathan notes that HIMARS appear to be being used more liberally by the Ukrainians and footage shows that a Russian Supercam drone operator team has been taken out by a HIMARS strike. Jonathan observes that the Ukrainians are making a concerted effort to destroy Russian reconnaissance drones, including:
- Air to air combat using FPV drones
- Using Yak-52 aircraft armed with shotguns
- Using HIMARS and Gimlers to strike reconnaissance teams behind Russian lines.
Jonathan notes that there haven't been reports of high-value Ukrainian targets being hit by Iskanders recently and speculates whether this is due to the focus on destroying Russian reconnaissance drones.
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Ukrainian forces recovering damaged vehicles from Kursk
🎦 17:08-18:04⏩
Jonathan then discusses footage which shows the Ukrainians successfully recovering damaged vehicles from the battlefield, including a Striker which was damaged during the Kursk operation, being recovered by the 170th Logistics Regiment Air Assault forces and a French VAB armoured personnel carrier being recovered. He also mentions that some Russian vehicles have been captured by the Ukrainians.
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Russian strikes on frontline settlements
🎦 18:04-19:28⏩
Jonathan reports that there haven't been any reports of Ukrainian drone or missile attacks overnight. He notes that frontline settlements continue to be shelled by the Russians, with Kramatorsk and Konstantynivka being hit. Osint Aggregator is reporting that a large Ukrainian drone attack was underway in Kursk overnight and that explosions had been reported, although Jonathan has not seen any confirmation of this.
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Civilian casualties in July 2024 the highest since October 2022
🎦 19:28-19:59⏩
Jonathan reports that July was the deadliest month for Ukrainian civilians since October 2022, according to the UN. The Russians are targeting civilian infrastructure as retribution for Ukrainian successes and also because that's what they do.
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Ukrainian forces destroy Russian Gas Rig in the Black Sea
🎦 19:59-21:19⏩
Jonathan reports breaking news that Ukrainian soldiers have attacked a Russian gas rig in the Black Sea. The Ukrainians are claiming that it was being used to spoof GPS, making it unsafe for civilian shipping. The attack is reported to have been carried out using sea babies and aerial drones. The gas rig is located West of Cape Tarkhankut, off the coast of Crimea. NASA FIRMS has detected a fire at the rig.
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Russian public opinion turning against dissenters
🎦 21:19-22:21⏩
Jonathan then discusses an incident on a bus in Russia where an 87-year-old man was beaten up for saying that the Wagner mercenaries are killers of women and children. Jonathan is disgusted by the incident, pointing out that this is what freedom looks like in Russia - you can't even express an opinion on a bus without being beaten up.
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Russian economy - inflation at 9.1%
🎦 22:21-24:25⏩
Jonathan talks about the state of the Russian economy. He refers to a post by Tim White who states that despite Russia raising interest rates by 2% to 18% to try and combat inflation, it is still rising and is now at 9.1%. Jonathan points out that Russian inflation figures should not be trusted. He explains that wages are rising due to a shortage of workers in Russia. Many men have been killed, conscripted or have fled the country and in order to attract workers, employers have to offer higher wages, which in turn pushes up prices, leading to a wage/price inflation spiral.
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Ukrainian/Georgian forces cross border into Belgorod and capture the village of Poroz
🎦 24:25-25:01⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian and Georgian volunteer fighters have crossed the border into Belgorod and have captured the village of Poroz. He suspects that this is another attempt to force the Russians to commit scarce resources.
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Belarus relocates military equipment to Ukrainian border
🎦 25:01-25:37⏩
Jonathan reports that Belarus is moving Iskander missile systems and Polonez MLRS to the Ukrainian border and has ordered the strengthening of military forces in the Kamel and Mosir regions. He speculates that Lukashenko is concerned that Ukraine might invade and is either trying to deter this or is trying to help the Russians by forcing the Ukrainians to commit troops to the Belarusian border.
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Kursk Nuclear Power Plant taken offline after substation hit
🎦 25:37-26:47⏩
Jonathan reports that the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant was taken offline yesterday following a strike on a substation. Russia has introduced counter-terrorism operations in the Bryansk region (Northwest of Kursk) due to the increased threat from Ukraine. There are discussions about whether Russia might invoke the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (similar to NATO) and call on its allies (Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) or other countries it has bilateral agreements with (such as North Korea) to assist. Jonathan recommends a Twitter thread by NOEL reports about the incursions into Kursk. Jonathan summarises the NOEL reports thread:
- The Russians are concerned about an attack towards Rilsk and are worried about Ukrainian reserves in the area.
- There are numerous claims that Russian equipment has been captured, as well as POWs.
- There have been reports of increased shelling in Tetkino, Belgorod (where the Russian Volunteer Corps previously attacked) with communications being taken out and the shelling continuing into the afternoon.
- The Russian's are concerned about the Ukrainians stretching their resources with artillery strikes and deep reconnaissance units.
US denies prior knowledge of Ukrainian incursion into Kursk
🎦 26:47-29:10⏩
Jonathan then discusses an article in the New York Times by Shashank Joshi about the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk. Senior US officials have said that they were not told in advance about the operation and are still trying to understand the logic. They also doubt whether Ukraine will be able to hold the territory for long enough to force Russia to divert significant resources. Jonathan believes this, as the Russians seemed genuinely surprised by the attacks (based on their reactions during press conferences) and had accused the British and Americans of being behind the attack (which appears to be untrue). A senior Ukrainian official has said that the aim of the operation was to force the Russians to divert troops from other parts of the front line.
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Evidence emerges that Russia is diverting resources away from other areas to Kursk
🎦 29:10-31:02⏩
Jonathan states that despite initial claims that the Russians weren't diverting resources, evidence has now emerged to show that they are. He shares footage from Vladislav Davidzon showing Russian equipment being moved from the Kharkiv direction to Kursk. He shares further evidence from a Twitter account PS01, who lists the Russian units that have been redeployed:
- From Kherson - 2 Paratrooper Battalions
- From Zaporizhia - 38th and 64th Motorised Rifle Brigades
- From Kupyansk - Several motorised Rifle battalions.
- From Kharkiv - Battalions from the 1009th Motorised Rifle Regiment, 79th, 272nd and 138th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade
- From the Graivonsky district - A company from the Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade and a Motorised Rifle Regiment (that had been operating in Kozachok Lopan and Krovsk) have been moved.
- From the Kherson direction - elements of the 810th Separate Naval Infantry Brigade (which suffered heavy losses in Vuhledar).
- From Luhansk - several battalions of assault infantry have been moved.
Jonathan points out that this evidence appears to confirm the information from the source in the New York Times article who said the aim of the operation was to divert Russian troops away from other areas.
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Chechen commander Apti Alaudinov criticises Russian MOD
🎦 31:02-31:40⏩
Jonathan discusses a statement made by Apti Alaudinov, a Chechen commander, criticising the Russian MOD for deceiving themselves, leading to poor decision-making based on inaccurate information. He cites an article in Forbes magazine by David Axe which states that more Ukrainian brigades are being moved into the Kursk region and that Ukrainian artillery is preventing Russian reinforcements from reaching the area.
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Douglas MacGregor spreading disinformation is helping Ukraine
🎦 31:40-33:21⏩
Jonathan then discusses a point made by Operator Starsky who highlights that the Russians are struggling to understand where Ukraine found the troops to attack Kursk, particularly given that Pro-Russian commentators such as Douglas MacGregor (a retired US Army Colonel who spreads disinformation about the war) are claiming that Ukraine has lost millions of men and that they have women and children fighting on the front lines. Jonathan agrees and says that by spreading misinformation about the war, people like Douglas MacGregor, Jackson Hinkle, Colonel MacGregor, The Grayzone and others are actually helping Ukraine because the Russians believe this information. He refers to this as the "Alaudinov Paradox" as Alaudinov himself has admitted that Russia has deceived itself.
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Kursk Nuclear Power Plant being prepared for defence
🎦 33:21-35:43⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia has deployed an additional 150 untrained fighters to defend the Kursk Nuclear Power plant which is located 80km from the fighting. Power has been cut to the plant, construction workers have been sent home and security has been stepped up. Jonathan questions whether this is a Russian disinformation campaign to make Ukraine think they are about to attack the plant, causing the Ukrainians to waste resources or whether they are genuinely concerned. The State Duma (Russian Parliament) is urging the public not to expect a quick victory and are playing down Russia's ability to solve the Kursk problem. A Russian propagandist, Andrei Gurlev, has recognised that a district in the Kursk region is occupied and has urged Russians to view the situation soberly. Jonathan finds this interesting as they are not claiming to have repelled the attack. He notes that Gurlev has said that Ukraine has committed significant forces and equipment and that there will be serious fighting.
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Debate about whether the attacks are a good use of resources
🎦 35:43-37:16⏩
Jonathan refers to a livestream by OSINTtechnical with Andrew Perpetua (from Oryx) discussing the attacks. Whilst the attacks appear to be going well, there is a debate about whether this is the best use of Ukrainian troops, given the situation in the East is difficult for the Ukrainians who are losing ground. Jonathan's view is that worst case scenario, the Ukrainians can withdraw quickly if necessary and they will still have tied up Russian resources and caused panic. He concludes the video by saying that Russian forces in Tetkino are reporting heavy shelling and have been cut off and that there are reports that the Russians are concerned about further attacks by the Russian Volunteer Corps, the Freedom of Russia Legion and others. He believes this would cause further panic.
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Wrap Up
🎦 37:16-37:17⏩
Jonathan thanks everyone for watching and says he will speak to everyone soon.
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