Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News
Table of Contents 📖
"She believes the Americans should help Putin win. Yes, you heard that right, to help him win in Ukraine."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:21⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the second part of the Ukraine War Update. He explains the video is later than usual due to spending several hours in A&E after his son dislocated his finger playing rugby. He shares an anecdote about his son, including a photo.
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US House of Representatives approves Ukraine aid package
🎦 01:21-05:43⏩
Jonathan recaps the US House of Representatives passing the aid package for Ukraine. He expresses concern about the future of American politics as a majority of Republican Representatives voted against the aid, suggesting they are "appeasing Russia". He highlights that 99% of Democrats who voted, voted in favour of Ukraine aid. Jonathan contrasts the Democrat's positive reaction to the vote passing with the more subdued Republican response. He then shares Zelenskyy's reaction to the news, playing a clip where Zelenskyy emphasises the need for long-range weapons, specifically ATACMS, to minimise Ukrainian casualties. Jonathan agrees with Zelenskyy's assessment. He also notes Ben Hodges’ (former commander of the US forces in Europe) belief that the aid package’s "strategic effect will be felt immediately in the Kremlin" as Russia’s plan to “wait for us to quit has failed.”
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Sean Pinner and Colonel Rob Maness debate US support for Ukraine
🎦 05:43-12:34⏩
Jonathan highlights Sean Pinner's (British Army veteran captured in Mariupol and later freed) criticism of those who voted against the aid, juxtaposing it with retired Colonel Rob Maness' anger at the Democrats waving Ukrainian flags, labelling them "traitors". Jonathan questions Maness' patriotism, referencing the presence of Confederate flags during the January 6th insurrection. He draws attention to Bill Pascrell Jr.'s (Democrat Representative) similar point: "some of my Republican colleagues enraged at me for waving a Ukrainian flag today. Somehow I had no problem with January the 6th Trump rioters waving Confederate flags in our capital. Weird."
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Russian reaction to US Aid Package
🎦 12:34-19:32⏩
Jonathan discusses Dimitri from WarTranslated’s analysis of Russian reactions to the aid package, revealing that the confiscation of frozen Russian assets is a primary concern for them. He highlights Dimitri's point that Putin's own miscalculations are to blame for the current situation, quoting Dimitri: "It was Putin who decided to launch a three-day police operation expecting immediate success. It’s his fault that for three years now, Russia has not even been able to fulfill its political goals of capturing the Donetsk region. So, all questions should be addressed to our own management, please." Jonathan agrees with Sean Pinner's assessment that this pressure could ultimately lead to Putin's downfall. He then discusses Peskov's (Kremlin spokesperson) reaction to the aid package and the potential seizure of Russian assets, quoting him: "If it’s really about confiscating our assets, the USA will answer for that. Moscow will take measures in accordance with our interests and no time limits." Jonathan interprets this as a veiled threat for future retaliation. He also covers Medvedev's provocative response, which includes wishing civil war upon the USA and claiming: "the decision will make the USA even richer and will make Ukraine still poorer, more Ukrainians will die."
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ATACMS likely to be sent to Ukraine, more US Military advisors
🎦 19:32-22:57⏩
Jonathan reports that Mark Warner (Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee) has stated that ATACMS will likely be sent to Ukraine by the end of next week. He then covers additional military aid news. The Pentagon is considering sending up to 60 military advisors to Ukraine in a non-combat advisory role. Jonathan notes this represents a shift in policy, as previously high-level US military personnel were not permitted in Ukraine. He highlights the advantages this closer cooperation will bring, compared to Ukrainians having to travel to other countries for meetings. Jonathan also expresses concern about this "mission creep" potentially increasing the possibility of direct military intervention.
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Military aid from Lithuania, UK and Norway
🎦 22:57-25:14⏩
Jonathan reports on further military aid updates:
- Lithuania: has delivered a new package, including a disassembled L-39ZA Albatross light attack aircraft, previously used by the Lithuanian army for training.
- UK: is preparing a new air defence package, expected to include MANPADS, specifically Starstreak or Martlets. Jonathan notes the urgent need for air defence systems, particularly in areas like Chancel and Avdiivka, where the Russian air force operates with near impunity.
- Norway: has launched a grant programme totalling nearly six million euros to support Ukrainian NGOs working on democratic reforms, strengthening the rule of law, and promoting civil society.
Germany offers equipment from decommissioned energy plants, Iran supplies Russia with 203mm shells
🎦 25:14-27:27⏩
Jonathan discusses the following updates:
- Germany: Robert Habeck (Vice Chancellor and Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action) has offered Ukraine access to equipment from decommissioned energy facilities. The offer allows Ukrainian specialists to assess parts for potential use in repairing their energy infrastructure.
- Iran: Reports indicate that Russia has received 203mm artillery shells from Iran, further cementing the defence cooperation between the two countries. Jonathan expresses concern about the "Axis of Evil" (Iran, Russia, North Korea, and possibly China) and the challenge these Iranian supplies present to Ukraine. However, he also suggests that this dependence on Iran indicates Russia's desperation due to potential bottlenecks in their own shell production.
Russian students forced to make trench candles, Russian troop withdrawal from Nagorno-Karabakh
🎦 27:27-29:06⏩
Jonathan contrasts Ukrainian families making trench candles to support their soldiers with Russian students being forced to do the same for their invading army. He views the Ukrainian actions as positive, highlighting the unity and spirit shown in the face of aggression. However, he condemns the Russian version as "terribly sad", describing it as a form of child labour. He then reports on Russia's continued troop withdrawal from Nagorno-Karabakh in the Armenian-Azerbaijan conflict zone, suggesting that Russia needs the personnel and equipment for Ukraine. Jonathan sees this as another indication of Russia's "dire straits" in maintaining their military operation in Ukraine.
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NATO countries military expansion (and UK reduction)
🎦 29:06-31:49⏩
Jonathan presents a map by Thomas C. Theiner that shows NATO countries with plans to significantly expand their militaries (Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Netherlands, Czechia, Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia) and those keeping theirs at current levels. He notes that the UK, despite having provided a high percentage of its GDP in aid to Ukraine, is the only NATO member shrinking its military, lamenting the years of underfunding. He then discusses Theiner’s view that the ruling British Conservative party “can’t do defence” and predicts they will lose the upcoming election. Jonathan then raises the question of how a future Labour government might approach defence spending, given limited resources.
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US Politics and Aid to Ukraine
🎦 31:49-39:21⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to the relationship between US politics and the future of aid to Ukraine. He highlights the importance of this topic, predicting a "big fight within the Republican Party" over its direction. He presents several key points:
- Republican Schism: Jonathan highlights the growing division between the MAGA Republicans (who largely voted against the aid package) and the more moderate Republicans.
- Media Influence: He questions where influential right-leaning media outlets like Fox News and the New York Post will align themselves in this schism, speculating that they might back the moderate Republicans to ensure the party's electability.
- Donor Concerns: Jonathan suggests that Republican fundraising is suffering because donors are reluctant to support a party dominated by the MAGA faction, seeing it as unelectable. This lack of funding could impact down-ticket campaigns, further weakening the party.
- 2024 Election Impact: Jonathan believes that a strong Democratic performance in the upcoming election would further secure future aid for Ukraine, while a Republican victory could jeopardise it.
Representative Marty Kaptur quotes Ukrainian poet Taras Shevchenko
🎦 39:21-40:48⏩
Jonathan praises Representative Marty Kaptur, a Democrat, for her strong support of Ukraine and social justice. He plays a clip of her quoting the Ukrainian poet Taras Shevchenko on the House floor, finding it "refreshing" compared to the rhetoric of Marjorie Taylor Greene. The quote reads: "The time is near when on Ukraine’s plains a shackled folk will burst its chains. Blessed be your children in these lands by touch of your toil-hardened hands. Then shall our day of hope arrive. Ukrainian glory shall revive." Kaptur concludes with: "Today is that day. Support liberty for Ukraine. Defeat Russia."
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Marjorie Taylor Greene's pro-Russian stance
🎦 40:48-52:03⏩
Jonathan discusses the criticism directed at Marjorie Taylor Greene for her pro-Russian stance, focusing on the following:
- "Moscow Marjorie": He notes Hakeem Jeffries' (Democrat Representative) use of this label, suggesting it might stick.
- "Nyet Moscow Marjorie": Jonathan highlights a New York Post article with this headline, seeing it as a potential sign of even right-leaning media turning against Greene.
- Russian Media Embracing Greene: He quotes Julia Davis' (Russian Media Monitor) article in The Daily Beast, revealing how Russian state television has shifted from mocking Greene to praising her as their "new darling" due to her statements supporting Russia's narrative.
- "Useful Tool for the Russians": Jonathan discusses the growing belief that Greene's rhetoric is deliberately echoing Russian talking points, potentially indicating a more direct influence. He shares examples of Greene's claims, such as the US supporting Nazis in Ukraine and NATO being a useless organisation, which are amplified by Russian media.
- Dmitry Drobnitsky’s Analysis: Jonathan quotes Drobnitsky, a Russian expert on America, who argues that Greene is effectively running Congress, highlighting her influence and the fear she instills.
- Jerry Moskovitz’s Amendment: He mentions Representative Jerry Moskovitz's (Democrat) satirical amendment proposing to appoint Greene as Putin's "special envoy in the United States Congress".
Religious influence in US aid to Ukraine
🎦 52:03-58:25⏩
Jonathan explores the role of religious influence, particularly evangelical Christianity, in shaping Mike Johnson's (House Speaker) stance on aid to Ukraine.
- Roman Shirameda’s Observation: Jonathan quotes Shirameda's observation that Johnson went from stalling aid for months to strongly supporting it, and explores the potential reasons for this shift.
- Lobbying Efforts: He references Jane Keeves’ point that influential Christian leaders in the US are on the "right side" of supporting Ukraine and highlights the impact of a delegation of Ukrainian representatives, including Serhii Gadaj, who met with Johnson. Gadaj's wife and child were killed in a Russian attack on Odessa, and his family were evangelical Christians, just like Johnson.
- Baptist Press Letter: Jonathan reads from a Baptist Press article about prominent evangelical leaders (including Dan Darling and Richard Land) writing to Johnson, urging him to consider the plight of Christians suffering under Russian occupation in Ukraine. Jonathan believes this letter was crucial in swaying Johnson's support.
- Time Magazine Article: He references a Time magazine article titled “Russia’s War Against Evangelicals", which exposes the persecution of Protestants in occupied Ukraine, directly contradicting claims like those made by Marjorie Taylor Greene about Ukraine persecuting Christians. Jonathan reads excerpts from the article, highlighting the data on Protestant persecution and the Russian perception of evangelicals as "agents of America".
Geopolitical updates: oil supplies, sanctions, Moldova, Georgia
🎦 58:25-01:00⏩
:04
Jonathan covers various geopolitical updates:
- Russia-China Oil Trade: Oil supplies from Russia to China increased by 13% in the first quarter of 2024. However, he questions the reliability of these official figures.
- Sanctions Enforcement: Customs in Rostock, Germany, detained a freighter coming from St. Petersburg en route to the USA due to EU sanctions. The freighter carried enriched uranium (which the US is buying from Russia) and birchwood, both subject to sanctions.
- Moldova's Energy Independence: Moldova has achieved full independence from Russian gas, according to Foreign Minister Mihai Popsoy.
- Georgia Protests: A women's march in Tbilisi protested against the "law on foreign agents", seen as restricting civil society and aligning with Russian interests. Jonathan expresses hope for free and fair elections in Georgia in six months to replace the current pro-Russian government.
Russia accuses West of opening a new front in the Balkans
🎦 01:00:04-01:02⏩
:01⏩
Jonathan reports on Russia's accusations that the West is opening a "new front" in the Balkans (Serbia, Montenegro, Croatia, Albania, Hungary, Slovakia) to distract from Russia's supposed successes in Ukraine. He notes that the UK is seen as the primary enemy, with Russia claiming they are sending weapons and troops to the region. Jonathan speculates that Russia's focus on the UK might stem from a Cold War mindset, where they viewed the UK and US as their main adversaries. He also highlights that France is increasingly being targeted by Russian disinformation due to their growing role in supporting Ukraine.
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Zelenskyy invites Brazil to participate in peace summit, Blinken to visit China
🎦 01:02:01-01:03⏩
:25⏩
Jonathan discusses:
- Brazil's Role in Peace Talks: Zelenskyy has expressed interest in Brazil's participation in a global peace summit, specifically inviting President Lula da Silva. Jonathan sees Brazil as an important player due to their membership in BRICS, an alternative economic bloc to the US-led system. He notes da Silva's ambiguous stance on the war and suggests that Zelenskyy is attempting to court his support.
- Blinken's Visit to China: US Secretary of State Blinken will visit China next week to pressure Beijing to stop supporting Russia. Jonathan considers this a crucial diplomatic effort, given China's significant economic and political assistance to Russia.
US withdrawing troops from Niger, likely replaced by Russians
🎦 01:03:25-01:03⏩
:43⏩
Jonathan reports breaking news that the US will withdraw 1,000 military personnel from Niger in West Africa following a coup. He predicts that the US withdrawal will create a vacuum likely to be filled by Russia, further expanding their influence in the region.
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Wrap up
🎦 01:03:43-01:03⏩
:58⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, acknowledging the video's length. He expresses his fascination with American politics, particularly the interplay of religion and politics.
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