Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Isn't it sad how a man with that many hundreds of millions of followers is just freely able to amplify direct Russian propaganda to those people? He is a useful idiot for Russia, there's absolutely no doubt about that".
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:26⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics update for 17th September 2024 and mentions that his birthday is approaching. Today's video is a Ukraine War news update Part 1.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian losses for 16/09/2024
🎦 00:26-03:01⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses for the previous day (16/09/2024), highlighting that overall the figures are low compared to figures reported previously:
- Personnel: 1,020 (Jonathan points out that anything over 1,000 is still a high figure).
- Tanks: 2
- Armoured Fighting Vehicles: 6
- Artillery systems: 6
- MLRS: 1
- Vehicles & Fuel Tanks: 27 (very low - recently there was a figure of 93).
- Special equipment: 1
The low figures may indicate that Russia is running out of equipment and personnel and ties into reports that a decree has been issued to increase the size of the Russian MOD by 180,000. Jonathan highlights that whilst Putin is afraid to do a mass mobilisation, 30,000 personnel are being recruited per month, on top of the 180,000 as well as the 300,000 from the last mobilisation. Jonathan reminds viewers about crypto and klepto mobilisation which has also been taking place.
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Andrew Perpetua's equipment losses 16/09/2024
🎦 03:01-05:34⏩
Jonathan reviews the equipment losses from Andrew Perpetua's list noting that Russia lost three times as many pieces of equipment compared to Ukraine. He notes that combat asset losses are similar for both sides: Ukrainian Losses:
- Command & Control vehicle - (M577). The loss of this type of vehicle indicates that Ukraine is likely on the attack (possibly in Kursk).
- BREM-1 engineer vehicle.
- 2 x Tanks
- Several Senators and Strykers (Jonathan doesn't specify numbers here).
- Damaged Humvee.
- 3 x Senators
- 1 x Stryker
- 2 x MRAPs captured
- 2 x MaxPro captured
- 1 x Abandoned vehicle
- Civilian vehicles.
Russian Losses:
- Surveillance and comms equipment
- 1 x T-80 tank
- 1 x T-62 tank
- IFVs/Fighting Vehicles - highest category of Russian losses (mainly BMP1s and BMP2s as well as BTRs and BMDs).
- APCs
- Trucks/Logistical vehicles (Loafs, Bobics, flatbed trucks, SUVs, vans, ladders, motorcycles).
Jonathan concludes that this is good news for Ukraine and bad news for Russia.
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Comparative Losses: Ukraine & Russia (Wall Street Journal)
🎦 05:42-09:13⏩
Jonathan discusses an article from the Wall Street Journal reporting on estimated losses for Ukraine and Russia. A confidential Ukrainian estimate from earlier in the year (now out of date) reports the number of Ukrainian personnel killed in action (KIA) to be 80,000 and wounded in action (WIA) to be 400,000 - a ratio of 5:1 (WIA: KIA). Western intelligence estimates for Russian losses are 200,000 KIA and 400,000 WIA (ratio 2:1). Jonathan highlights that this is not good and that Ukraine are doing a much better job of caring for their wounded. Jonathan refers to information he had been made aware of previously from a viewer called Greg (Greg Terry) who had said that estimates from within Ukraine for population drop were from 44 million down to 28 million. This wasn't widely reported but there were rumours circulating. Jonathan discusses reasons for this drop in population (refugees, draft evasion). Jonathan returns to the Wall Street Journal report stating that it estimates 1 million people have been killed or injured in Ukraine (both sides) and provides further figures (that differ from the previously mentioned figures) for Russian and Ukrainian losses:
- Russia - 200,000 KIA and 500,000 WIA.
- Ukraine - 80,000 KIA and 400,000 WIA.
Jonathan highlights the discrepancies in the figures being reported and that this makes analysis difficult.
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Ukraine eliminates Russian propagandist Alexander Korobov
🎦 09:13-10:20⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian defence intelligence has eliminated Russian Military Propagandist Alexander Korobov (known as 'Crab') in Russia's Belgorod region. Details about the incident are limited, although there are reports that his skull was fractured. Jonathan speculates whether this was an assassination or the result of another incident.
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Russian 'War reporter' Evgeny Podubny killed
🎦 10:20-10:47⏩
Jonathan reports that another Russian 'war reporter' (propagandist) called Evgeny Podubny has been killed in a Kursk Oblast blast. He had previously been seriously injured in a Ukrainian drone attack and had been treated in an ICU in Moscow.
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Ukrainian drone operator Goodwin killed by thermite drone
🎦 10:47-11:58⏩
Jonathan returns to a story he reported previously about a well-respected and highly effective Ukrainian drone operator known as 'Goodwin'. Goodwin was reassigned to an assault unit, a decision that was questioned by many. Jonathan provides an update, crediting source 'A PS01': Goodwin was killed by a Russian thermite drone (he burned alive) and the rest of his unit were buried in the ruins of a house after it was hit by artillery shells.
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Ukrainian UGV destroys Russian tank
🎦 12:08-12:46⏩
Jonathan reports on footage he has seen of a Ukrainian unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) driving up to a Russian tank carrying an anti-tank mine, destroying the tank. Jonathan is impressed with this innovative use of a UGV.
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Update: Russian Mechanised assault on Liubymivka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) repelled
🎦 12:47-13:40⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the Russian Mechanised assault on Liubymivka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) that he reported on in his last frontline update. During the assault, the Russians shelled civilian buildings. A column of 6 armoured vehicles was destroyed by artillery of the 103rd Assault Brigade. Whilst the outcome is not yet known, it looks as though the assault has been repelled.
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Ukraine claims to have destroyed Russian base in Aleppo, Syria
🎦 13:40-15:42⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian intelligence (GUR/HUR) claims to have destroyed a Russian base in Aleppo, Syria. The base was targeted because it is used for manufacturing and testing drones that will be used against Ukraine in the war. Jonathan discusses the strategic importance of this: Ukraine needs to disrupt Russia's influence operations in other countries and force Russia to use resources elsewhere in order to hinder its ability to fight the war in Ukraine. Jonathan believes that it makes sense for Ukraine to target Russian/Wagner assets wherever they are in the world. Ukraine had previously supported a Tuareg attack on Wagner troops in Mali (85 were killed), forcing Russia to redeploy troops from there to Kursk.
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Helicopter crash in Russia
🎦 15:42-17:12⏩
Jonathan reports on a helicopter crash (Robinson R-66) in Russia. The helicopter was carrying the director of a gold mining company. Jonathan notes that the number of helicopter crashes in Russia is statistically anomalous and speculates that this latest crash could be related to poor maintenance, sabotage or an oligarch hit job.
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Iranian Shahed drone attacks (overnight 16/09 - 17/09/2024)
🎦 17:12-18:33⏩
Jonathan reports on overnight drone attacks by Russia. 51 Shahed drones were launched into Ukraine:
- 34 were shot down
- 2 returned to Russia
- 12 were lost over Ukrainian territory (likely due to electronic warfare)
- 3 got through
This is a loss rate of 94% (48/51) which is good for Ukraine although as Jonathan points out, they would rather destroy the drones at their manufacturing plant.
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Zelensky: Russia used over 640 Shahed drones in the first two weeks of September
🎦 18:33-21:22⏩
Jonathan reports that Zelensky has said that in the first half of September alone (up to 17/09/2024) Russia has used over 640 Shahed drones against Ukrainian towns and cities. He goes on to list the various types of equipment and weapons being used by Ukraine to counter the drones:
- Tunguska
- ZSU-23 cannons mounted on trucks.
- Supercats (rare - UK provided)
- Stormer HVM (UK provided)
- Heavy machine guns mounted on trucks
- Mobile units on trucks
- Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns
- Audio monitoring/listening posts to locate drones by sound.
- NASAMS
- Hawks
- Patriots
- FPV drones (footage shows one taking out a Lancet drone).
- Planes
- Helicopters
Jonathan commends Ukraine for adapting so effectively since the beginning of the war when the interception rate was much lower.
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Russian drone and aerial bomb attacks on Sumy Oblast
🎦 21:44-22:17⏩
Jonathan reports (crediting Tim White) that the Sumy region is being fiercely attacked by Russian drones and aerial bombs.
- Konotop, Okhtyrka and Sumy City all affected.
- Widespread power cuts
- No water in Sumy
- House destroyed in Baranivka
Explosions reported at Engels Air Base in Saratov
🎦 22:17-24:53⏩
Jonathan reports on explosions at Engels Air Base in Saratov Oblast (home to Russia's Tupolev Tu-95 bombers) adding that it is not yet known if the attack was successful. Engels is a strategically important airbase - it's where bombers take off from to launch cruise missiles, ballistic missiles etc at Ukraine.
- The explosions were captured on video and posted online.
- Satellite imagery has confirmed that there were substantial fires at the air base.
- Sentinel 2 satellite imagery from 15/09/2024 shows a number of Russian aircraft: Tu-22, Tu-95, Tu-160 and Antonov An-12
Increased use of guided bombs by Ukraine
🎦 24:53-29:26⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine appears to be making increased use of guided bombs (in addition to HIMARS):
- AASM Hammer (France) - Ukraine receives 50 per month (600 per year) although France may be increasing this number.
- GBU-39 (US) - small diameter precision-guided glide bomb. Jonathan notes that whilst this bomb is not mentioned in relation to Ukraine, they appear to be using them successfully.
Jonathan notes that Russia is also using large numbers of guided bombs and that Ukraine has had problems with some systems (e.g. Boeing GLSDB) being affected by electronic warfare, although this was likely due to a failure to use them effectively and carry out adequate preparatory work. Jonathan shows footage of:
- A Russian field headquarters after it was hit by a guided bomb.
- What he believes to be Vesele (Kursk Oblast) being hit.
- A building (possibly a command and control post/depot/arms cache) being hit and completely destroyed.
- Jdam-ER being used in an attack (footage not shown).
Context: Attacks on Russian training facilities
🎦 29:26-32:06⏩
Jonathan reminds viewers of the recent attack on a communications training establishment in Poltava, Ukraine, highlighting that whilst these sorts of attacks are terrible, both sides are attacking each other in this way on a routine basis.
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Ukraine using HIMARS to great effect
🎦 32:07-33:20⏩
Jonathan reports on the effective use of HIMARS by Ukraine and shows footage of:
- A tungsten airburst over Russian soldiers in the forests near Horlivka (Donetsk Oblast) who were supporting the Russian effort at Prokrosk.
- 50 Russian casualties (KIA & WIA) at a training ground in Donetsk.
Jonathan notes that whilst it is important to try and prevent strikes against training centres, this sort of event is happening all the time on the front lines.
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Russia using guided bombs in Zvanivka (south of Siversk)
🎦 32:33-33:20⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia is also using large numbers of guided glide bombs. Footage shows a target (not identified) in Zvanivka, south of Siversk that has sustained significant damage. Jonathan speculates on whether Russia's use of guided glide bombs may be decreasing due to the threat of Ukrainian attacks on airbases but notes that Russia appears to be able to manufacture the bombs freely.
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Russian forces execute Ukrainian POW with sword
🎦 33:23-34:38⏩
Jonathan reports on a war crime committed by Russian forces: a Ukrainian soldier was executed with a sword. Images circulating online (not shown) confirm the execution - the sword (a fantasy replica) can be seen protruding from the chest of the dead Ukrainian soldier. Jonathan (crediting Illia Ponomarenko) describes this as "yet another war crime by the terrorist regime's army amid its war to exterminate Ukraine". Ukraine's ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets has appealed to the UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross.
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Thousands of Russian troops surrounded in Kursk Oblast? (DeepState)
🎦 34:40-36:08⏩
Jonathan reports (crediting Tim White and DeepState maps) that thousands of Russian soldiers are surrounded in the Kursk region, although it is too early to say for sure and no conclusions should be drawn yet. Jonathan displays a DeepState map showing a grey zone (where it is not clear who has control) in the north of the Kursk Oblast and explains that fighting is ongoing as the Russians try to break through to provide reinforcements.
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40% of Russian frontline casualties from drones
🎦 36:08-37:08⏩
Jonathan reports (crediting Tim White) that Ukrainian military leaders estimate that 40% of casualties on the Russian frontline are from drones. Jonathan states that he had heard a higher figure previously, going on to explain that at the beginning of the war, 88% of casualties were caused by artillery but since then, Ukraine had experienced a shell shortage (due to US Congress delaying military aid) and they had to find other solutions. Drones are increasingly taking on the role of artillery.
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Ukraine expands bridgehead in Glushkovsky District (Kursk Oblast)
🎦 37:17-39:28⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian forces in the Kursk Oblast have expanded their bridgehead in the Glushkovsky District. He displays a map (no source) that shows the area under Ukrainian control along the border is larger than indicated on other maps. Jonathan speculates that Russia may need more troops in the area:
- George Barros believes they need 150,000 to remove Ukraine from Kursk Oblast.
- General Syrskyi believes they need 30,000
- George Barros estimates that Russia has 25,000 in the area.
- Zelensky has said that Russia wants 60-70,000 there (although it's not clear whether this is how many they want or how many they have).
Jonathan believes that Russia is struggling in the area and that this, combined with Ukraine's successes, is why Putin has requested another 180,000 troops.
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Evacuations ordered in two districts of Kursk Oblast
🎦 39:28-43:50⏩
Jonathan expresses concern following an announcement by the acting governor of Kursk Oblast, Alexei Smirnov, that civilians living in a 15km zone in the Zhovte (Zhovte is the Ukrainian name for the settlement referred to as 'Yellow' in the transcript - it is not a colour designation in this context) area of the Kumantove and Rylsk districts in the west of Kursk Oblast must evacuate. Jonathan speculates that this could be because:
- Ukrainian reserve forces are being prepared for deployment.
- Russia has intelligence that Ukraine is planning a large-scale incursion into the region (possibly with newly trained/equipped troops)
Jonathan notes that Zelensky recently complained to Western allies that only 4 of 14 new Ukrainian brigades are properly equipped and that he needs more equipment. He dismisses the idea that Ukrainian forces will attack from the Kursk salient as they are bogged down there and speculates that an attack is more likely to come across the border, something which he advocates.
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Russia acknowledges difficulties in retaking Ukrainian positions in Kursk
🎦 43:50-44:19⏩
Jonathan reports (no source) that Russia has acknowledged that attempts to retake Ukrainian positions in Kursk Oblast are progressing slower than expected and that the focus is on preventing Ukraine from expanding in other sectors.
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Update: Ukraine retakes the aggregates plant in Vovchansk (Kharkiv Oblast)
🎦 44:19-45:01⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the situation at the aggregates plant in Vovchansk (Kharkiv Oblast). It had been believed that a Russian battalion had been surrounded there for several months, being resupplied by drones. The area had been under heavy shelling by Russia but it has now been confirmed that the plant is back under Ukrainian control. Jonathan notes that Andrew Perpetua has also confirmed that Ukraine has kicked Russia out of the southern part of Kupiansk (Kharkiv Oblast)
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Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast
🎦 45:01-45:44⏩
Jonathan reports that:
- There are unconfirmed reports that Russian forces have advanced to Stupochky (Donetsk Oblast)
- Suriyak maps (pro-Russian) show Klishchiivka (Donetsk Oblast) to be under Russian control up to the canal.
- Andrew Perpetua shows the area as contested.
Jonathan speculates that Ukraine may have ceded most if not all of the territory to Russia, who have pushed back in the area. Whilst this is not an immediate threat to Chasiv Yar (Donetsk Oblast), it is worrying for Ukraine.
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Countering disinformation
🎦 45:44-49:53⏩
Jonathan expresses how much he enjoys hearing anecdotes about how people are countering Russian disinformation, reading out a comment from a viewer 'Hugo Kappa':
- Hugo Kappa had been on a film set (as an extra) and had been talking to another extra about Ukraine and sharing facts about the war.
- A Ukrainian lady overhead their conversation and thanked Hugo for following what was happening in her country so closely.
Jonathan encourages viewers to keep up the good work, fighting disinformation and highlighting that Ukrainians appreciate it. He then reads out another comment from viewer 'Mr Pilski':
- Mr Pilski's brother-in-law (a smart, successful, liberal) had challenged Mr Pilski about his support of Ukraine, believing that most locals don't mind which flag they are under.
- Mr Pilski used information from ATP Geopolitics to challenge his brother-in-law's views on USAID to Ukraine.
Jonathan is heartened by these examples and encourages viewers to spread positive fact-based narratives. Jonathan shows viewers a meme that Elon Musk shared on X (formerly Twitter) showing Zelensky holding out his hand asking for money. Jonathan highlights that the meme was created by someone called 'Sophia' who works for a Russian government agency sanctioned by the US for spreading propaganda in the West. He points out how dangerous it is that someone with so much influence (Elon Musk) can freely amplify Russian propaganda.
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Wrap Up
🎦 49:53-50:01⏩
Jonathan signs off.
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