Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News, Zelenskyy Hits Back
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Table of Contents 📖
"And that's the kind of contempt that you see within the Russian circles here."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:30⏩
- Jonathan welcomes viewers to ATP Geopolitics and the Ukraine War News Update on 19th February 2025.
- Apologises for being slightly late, explaining he received a morning video call from Zhenya, a Ukrainian friend.
- Zhenya called after watching Jonathan's previous video about Donald Trump's press conference and praised it.
- Jonathan explains that Zhenya used the call as an opportunity to "offload" his feelings as a Ukrainian, expressing the psychological impact of recent events.
- Jonathan highlights Zhenya's thoughtfulness, intelligence, knowledge, and charitable work with Greg Terry, emphasising his positive character.
- Jonathan notes that the conversation revealed the toll the past week has taken on Zhenya and Ukrainians in general, conveying a sense of betrayal and desperation felt by Ukrainians.
- Jonathan feels it's important to share this personal insight to illustrate the human impact beyond abstract reporting and numbers.
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses Update
🎦 03:18-04:49⏩
- Jonathan reports on Russian losses, noting a high number of personnel losses at 1,300, which is at the higher end of his previously established ranges, indicating a significant increase from what was considered "insane" previously.
- He highlights that 19 tanks were lost, almost double the daily average, which is very significant.
- 23 troop-carrying AFVs were lost, exceeding the daily average.
- Artillery losses were exceptionally high at 72 systems, one of the highest numbers Jonathan has seen recently and considered "huge".
- Three multiple launch rocket systems and four anti-aircraft systems were destroyed, the latter being about four times the daily average and "huge".
- Drone losses were also high, as expected.
- 146 vehicles and fuel tanks were destroyed, along with one piece of special equipment.
- These high numbers collectively suggest significant frontline activity and Ukrainian resistance, although likely translating to some territorial gains for Russia.
- Jonathan mentions he does not have Andrew Perpetua's loss list for today but hopes to share it later if available.
Russian Orders to Shoot Surrendering Ukrainian Soldiers
🎦 04:49-05:29⏩
- Tim White reports further evidence of direct orders from Russia's MZ and commanders to shoot surrendering Ukrainian soldiers and not take them captive.
- This corroborates previous reports and empirical evidence of Russian forces executing Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs).
- A Human Rights Group in Zaporizhzhia is reporting on a trial of a Russian soldier who admitted to receiving orders not to take prisoners but to shoot surrendering Ukrainian soldiers.
Destruction of North Korean Self-Propelled Howitzer
🎦 05:29-06:08⏩
- Video evidence has emerged of the destruction of a North Korean M1989 "Coxsack" 170mm self-propelled howitzer, used by Russia.
- The howitzer was reportedly taken out by the Ukrainian "Nemesis" unit.
- This is the first visually recorded instance of a North Korean self-propelled gun being destroyed in Ukraine.
- Jonathan speculates that the recent increase in Russian artillery losses might be linked to the deployment of North Korean artillery pieces. He suggests Ukraine may have destroyed around 20 North Korean self-propelled guns, with this video being the first visual confirmation.
Switchblade 600 Drone Usage
🎦 06:44-08:05⏩
- Switchblade 600 drones are still being used by Ukraine, evidenced by footage of one damaging a TOR M2 system, possibly the same one listed by Andrew Perpetua.
- Jonathan clarifies the difference between Switchblade 300 and 600 drones. Switchblade 300s, launched from mini-mortars and with a small explosive capability, were not successful.
- Switchblade 600s seem to have resurfaced and are still being supplied by the United States, indicating continued, albeit perhaps limited, effectiveness.
- Jonathan references a thread on US drone procurement, highlighting the disparity between expensive US-procured drones and cheaper, potentially more effective, Ukrainian-made drones. He suggests the US military could learn from Ukraine's approach to drone development and procurement.
Explosive FPV Goggles Targeting Russian Drone Operators
🎦 09:04-12:31⏩
- Jonathan discusses a Ukrainian operation involving sabotaged FPV drone goggles sent to Russian forces.
- Drawing a parallel to a Mossad operation involving explosive-laden pages, he explains that FPV goggles were packed with explosives.
- Initially, it was reported that Russia discovered and neutralised these sabotaged goggles.
- However, new information reveals that the explosive goggles did cause injuries, with Russian sources reporting that eight Russian FPV drone operators were blinded.
- The sabotage involved C4 explosives, detonators, and batteries hidden within Skyzone Cobra FPV goggles, triggered by the cooling fan.
- Around 80 sets of these goggles were sent to Russian units as "gratuitous assistance" by public organisations, all sourced from the same individual.
- Explosions occurred in the Belgorod, Kursk, Luhansk and Donetsk regions, starting from early February.
- The individual who sent the parcels reportedly left Russia for Istanbul on February 3rd.
- Jonathan finds this operation "pretty impressive".
Explosion at Russian Radonezh Oil Field
🎦 12:31-13:04⏩
- Russian media reports an explosion at the Radonezh oil field in the Tyumen region of Russia, attributed to equipment repairs.
- 23 oil wells were shut down following the incident, expected to significantly impact Russia's oil pumping and extraction capabilities.
Russian Drone Attacks on Ukraine and Modified Tactics
🎦 13:04-13:46⏩
- Another large wave of Russian drones was launched into Ukrainian airspace.
- Ukraine reports that Russia has modified its drones, potentially explaining the increased number of successful hits recently.
- Out of 167 drones launched, only 5 got through overnight (approximately 3%), which Jonathan still considers a remarkably good interception rate.
- 106 drones were shot down, and 56 fell harmlessly, possibly due to electronic warfare.
- Damage was reported in Odesa, Kyiv, Sumy, Cherkasy, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Lavrov's Lies and Russian Attacks on Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure
🎦 13:46-17:21⏩
- Jonathan reports that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, during recent talks with US negotiators, falsely claimed that Russia has not been targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
- Jonathan criticises the inexperience of the US negotiating team (Marco Rubio, Stephen Witkoff, Michael Walls) compared to seasoned Russian diplomats like Lavrov and Ushakov, suggesting the US team is being manipulated.
- Republican Roger Wicker has stated that Putin is a liar and cannot be negotiated with, suggesting Putin's end will come through revolution or execution.
- Lavrov claimed the US proposed a moratorium on attacks on energy facilities, to which Russia responded they never jeopardised civilian supply systems – a blatant lie.
- Hours after Lavrov's denial, Russia attacked energy infrastructure in Odesa, leaving 160,000 people without electricity and heating during sub-zero temperatures, damaging hospitals and daycares.
- Jonathan describes this as a "kick in the nads" and evidence of Russia's contempt and deceit, highlighting the cynical Russian attitude of manipulating and deceiving the US while continuing attacks.
Contrasting Peace Talks with Ongoing Attacks: Kyiv Air Defences Active
🎦 17:21-19:46⏩
- While Donald Trump was publicly stating that peace talks were progressing well and peace was closer, CNN reported live air defence activity over central Kyiv.
- This occurred after a large overnight barrage of 176 Iranian-designed Shahid drones intercepted over Ukraine.
- CNN's correspondent in Kyiv reported hearing drone engines and anti-aircraft fire while reporting on Ukraine's reaction to peace talks in Riyadh.
- Jonathan questions if this is the "atmosphere for peace," arguing that Russia is mocking the peace talks by escalating attacks immediately after claiming progress, especially as Ukrainians were not involved in these talks and the US delegation seems easily manipulated.
Russian Ballistic Missile Attack on Odesa and Ukrainian Air Defence Shortages
🎦 19:46-20:18⏩
- Odesa was also hit by Russian ballistic missiles, with reports of horrific scenes.
- Spravdi Stratcom Centre reports that Russia is pouring ballistic missiles onto Odesa, targeting a hospital and civilian infrastructure.
- Despite three years of war, Ukraine still lacks adequate air defences to protect its cities from such attacks.
Zelenskyy's Warning on Patriot Missile Shortages and US Policy
🎦 20:18-21:51⏩
- Republicans Against Trump highlights the Russian attack on Odesa occurring just after Trump claimed Russia was sincere about ending the war, stating Trump's weakness emboldens Putin.
- Zelenskyy revealed that one city reported having no missiles for Patriot air defence systems when facing an incoming attack of eight targets.
- Jonathan expresses concern that diverging US-Europe-Ukraine relations could lead to the US reducing military aid, particularly Patriot missile supplies.
- He warns that without Patriot interceptor missiles, Kyiv, currently one of the best-defended cities, would become vulnerable, potentially crippling Ukraine as Kyiv is vital for its economy, culture, and governance.
- The US holds the key to Ukraine's air defence capabilities.
Ukrainian Drone Strike on Russian Oil Refinery
🎦 21:51-24:12⏩
- Ukraine attacked the Suzran oil refinery in the Samara region of Russia with drones, approximately 1,000 km from the Ukrainian border.
- The refinery, processing 8.9 million tons of oil annually, was struck despite Russia's "porous" air defences.
- Videos and images circulating online show a fire at the refinery, contradicting local authorities' claims of no damage.
- Special Kherson Cat reported the fire, noting the refinery's processing capacity of 8.5 million tons per year and its location about 800 km from the front line.
- The primary oil refining unit, AVT-6, was damaged, causing a fire over 30 square meters and temporarily halting operations.
Zelenskyy Responds to Trump's Disinformation and Popularity Claims
🎦 24:12-27:05⏩
- Jonathan refers to his previous breaking news update about Donald Trump's incorrect claims about Zelenskyy, including a false 4% approval rating and blaming Zelenskyy for the war.
- Zelenskyy has responded, carefully balancing his need for US support with a robust rebuttal of Trump's claims.
- Zelenskyy states Trump is living in a "disinformation bubble" influenced by Russia.
- He refutes Trump's popularity claim, citing recent polls showing 58% of Ukrainians trust him as of February 2025, up from 52% in December 2024 according to KMIS polls. 37% distrust him.
- Zelenskyy provides "receipts" to contradict Trump's claims and asserts his legitimacy, stating any attempts to replace him would fail.
- He attributes the disinformation to Russia and notes these figures are likely shared with the US.
- Jonathan agrees with Zelenskyy, referencing Andrew Perpetua's concern that intelligence is not reaching the White House, and criticising Trump's administration team for policy failures.
Zelenskyy Connects Trump Disinformation to Hungarian and Slovak Influence
🎦 27:05-28:06⏩
- Zelenskyy warns against the "misinformation circle" around President Trump, linking it to representatives connected to Hungarian and Slovak governments.
- This is described as "fascinating" by Jonathan, who notes the involvement of Tucker Carlson, whose father lobbies for Viktor Orban.
- Jonathan highlights the connection between Viktor Orban, MAGA Republicanism, and CPAC, noting the close relationship between Orban and Trump.
- Zelenskyy is directly connecting the disinformation to Hungarian and Slovakian individuals influencing Trump, which Jonathan finds very interesting, suggesting they are working to weaken Ukraine.
- Jonathan agrees "100%" with Zelenskyy's assessment.
Ukraine's Rare Earth Mineral Reserves and Zelenskyy's Position
🎦 28:06-29:54⏩
- Bloomberg reports that Ukraine does not possess the rare earth mineral reserves that Trump may be hoping for, citing US Geological Survey and Mining Industry databases where Ukraine is not listed as a major source.
- The EU has requested more information from Ukraine about its mineral deposits, suggesting there might be undisclosed reserves.
- Despite potential, Ukraine is not known to hold reserves of the main rare earth metals sought by Trump.
- Jonathan provides context on global rare earth mineral reserves, highlighting China's significant share (44 million tons).
- He mentions Norway's recent discovery of a large rare earth metal deposit, beneficial for Western independence from China.
- Zelenskyy states Ukraine does not want to become a raw material extraction centre but is open to investment, provided occupied territories are liberated and natural resources are protected.
- This is seen as another rebuttal to the American position, possibly regarding Trump's interest in Ukraine's resources.
Zelenskyy's Navigation of US Relations and Potential Adversarial Shift
🎦 29:54-30:55⏩
- Jonathan believes the next few days will be crucial in observing how Zelenskyy navigates the relationship with the US.
- Zelenskyy needs to robustly refute White House lies without alienating the US to the point of becoming formal adversaries.
- Jonathan suggests the Trump administration's America is already becoming an adversary to Ukraine, though not officially.
- He notes the difficulty of Zelenskyy's position: he must push back against disinformation but avoid provoking a complete adversarial stance from the US, which could have dire consequences for Ukraine's survival.
Zelenskyy on Russian Intentions and NATO Membership as a Solution
🎦 30:55-32:26⏩
- Zelenskyy stated that Russia wants to eliminate him politically, if not physically, as he is "inconvenient" for Putin.
- He suggests that if Ukraine were accepted into the EU and NATO, he would no longer be needed, but until then, he will defend his country.
- Jonathan argues that NATO membership for Ukraine is the cheapest way to maintain its sovereignty through Article 5 protection, which acts as a strong deterrent without massive expenditure.
- Without NATO membership, the alternative is expensive bilateral agreements, peacekeeping forces, and continuous military and financial aid.
- He expresses frustration that Slovakia, Hungary, and potentially the US are not supportive of Ukraine's NATO aspirations, while other nations see it as an "irreversible path".
US Envoy Keith Kellogg's Visit to Ukraine and Potential Shift in US Policy
🎦 32:26-34:47⏩
- Zelenskyy reportedly stated that the US will withdraw all support if Ukraine raises the issue of American soldiers in Ukraine, indicating a sensitive point in the relationship.
- Keith Kellogg, Trump's special envoy to Ukraine, has arrived in Kyiv, marking his first visit since becoming envoy.
- Kellogg referred to the "Russian invasion of Ukraine," which Jonathan notes is a positive sign.
- Kellogg stated he is in Kyiv for "good, substantial talks" with Zelenskyy and his team, and to "sit and listen," emphasising the importance of Ukraine's sovereignty and security guarantees.
- Jonathan interprets this visit as potentially placing all Ukrainian hopes on Kellogg, as the rest of the Trump administration seems to have abandoned Ukraine.
- He sees Kellogg, along with the EU and other allies (Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand), as key for Ukraine's future.
- Canada has also expressed interest in joining peace negotiations.
Zaluzhnyi's Four Conditions for Ukrainian Victory
🎦 34:57-35:18⏩
- Former Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valery Zaluzhnyi, now the ambassador to the UK, has outlined four key conditions for Ukrainian victory:
- Prepared mobilisation reserve for a prolonged war.
- Consistent international support.
- Competent military leadership.
- Effective management of the entire process.
Wrap up
🎦 35:18-35:51⏩
- Jonathan concludes the Ukraine War News Update, noting the focus on geopolitical, political, and diplomatic topics, with less emphasis on "hits and losses" compared to usual.
- He hopes the information was of interest and thanks viewers for watching, liking, subscribing, and sharing.
- He expresses appreciation for viewer support, seeing it as support for Ukraine.
- Jonathan signs off, promising to speak to viewers again soon.
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