Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"This is what liberation looks like. It looks rather like overt destruction to me."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:22⏩
Good Morning. Jonathan welcomes viewers to his Ukraine War Update for 10th April 2024 - this is the first part. He apologises for being a little later than usual due to the Easter holidays and his children.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report: Russian losses
🎦 00:22-02:07⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses for the previous day, reminding viewers that the figures reported may include damaged equipment that can be returned to service. Losses include 830 personnel, 22 tanks, 47 armoured personnel vehicles. The high number of tanks and APVs lost suggests that the Russians are pressing hard in several locations including Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and areas around Tonjenka. He notes that whilst the Russians are taking losses, they are making territorial gains in some places.
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Oryx: Russian equipment losses in Tonenka
🎦 02:07-06:11⏩
Jonathan plays a clip from an Andrew Perpetua livestream in which Andrew describes how he analysed high resolution imagery of Tonenka from April 6th and counted 98 destroyed vehicles. Of these, 85 were Russian and just six were Ukrainian - a "stunning ratio" according to Andrew. This confirms that the Ukrainians are inflicting significant equipment losses on the Russians. Jonathan notes that whilst the Ukrainians are inflicting heavy losses on the Russians, they are ceding territory for this which could work in their favour in the long run - especially if Russia is unable to replenish its equipment. The unknown factor is how many personnel the Ukrainians are losing.
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Ukrainian drone warfare & reliance on FPV drones
🎦 06:11-09:28⏩
Jonathan discusses a Foreign Policy article which reports that two thirds of Russian tanks destroyed by Ukrainian forces in recent months were destroyed using first person view (FPV) drones. This is indicative of the Ukrainian's reliance on drones whilst they await the delivery of artillery and ammunition from their allies. He notes that whilst the Ukrainians inflicted heavy losses on the Russians in recent attacks on Krasnohorivka, they may have been even more effective if they had had more artillery ammunition to target the Russian columns further back. He speculates that this is evidence that the Ukrainians are having to be economical with their use of artillery shells due to limited supplies, even though it appears they are using more in certain areas. He questions whether the recently pledged ammunition has been delivered yet, noting that Andrew Perpetua doesn't think so.
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SBU footage: Destroyed Russian Air Defence Systems
🎦 07:59-8:43⏩
Jonathan notes that the SBU (Security Service of Ukraine) has released footage showing a number of recently destroyed Russian air defence systems, including two BUK systems, an Estrella 10 short range anti-aircraft system and a Tunguska anti-aircraft gun.
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Effectiveness of US-supplied drones
🎦 08:43-09:28⏩
Jonathan highlights a recent article which suggests that US-supplied FPV drones (excluding Switchblades) haven't been very effective. He believes that the US will be learning a lot from this conflict and that this may result in a change to US procurement processes as a result of the lessons learned on the frontline in Ukraine.
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Russian 'Tortoise' Armoured Vehicle in Krasnohorivka
🎦 09:28-14:08⏩
Jonathan discusses footage of a distinctive Russian armoured assault vehicle, nicknamed the "Tortoise", which was used in a recent assault on Krasnohorivka. The vehicle appears to be a standard tank chassis covered with additional metal plating, with a non-functioning turret. Jonathan speculates that this is further evidence that the Russians are running out of equipment, otherwise they would simply have used a standard armoured personnel carrier (APC) rather than welding scrap metal onto a damaged tank. He questions why they haven't simply repaired the tank turret. Footage from a later strike shows the building where the Tortoise was stored/built destroyed.
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Russian Mi-24 Helicopter crash off the coast of Crimea
🎦 14:08-15:38⏩
Jonathan reports that the Russians have admitted to the loss of a Mi-24 Helicopter which crashed off the coast of Crimea, stating that the cause was a technical problem. He notes that there have been reports that the helicopter was shot down by friendly fire but that this is unconfirmed.
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Ukraine using French AASM-250 HAMMER guided bombs
🎦 15:38-16:37⏩
Ukraine has released footage of a French-supplied AASM-250 HAMMER guided bomb strike on a Russian base in Yakovlevka in the Donetsk Oblast. Jonathan notes that the Ukrainians will likely be using a lot of these. France is supplying 50 per month, up to a total of 600 over the course of a year. He expresses uncertainty whether France will increase production beyond that.
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Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure
🎦 16:37-19:14⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia has continued to strike Ukrainian energy and transport infrastructure overnight, with 14 out of 17 Shahed drones shot down. He expresses concern about the targeting of Odessa, which has been hit for two consecutive days. The Russians are also targeting Mikhaylov in the Odessa Oblast. He shows footage of Kostantynivka, a town near the front lines, showing the devastation that has been wrought on the civilian population and questioning what the Russians mean by "liberation".
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Lloyd Austin criticises Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries
🎦 19:15-22:24⏩
Jonathan discusses Lloyd Austin's statement warning that Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries could destabilise the global energy markets. Jonathan expresses the view that this is a little unfair given Russia's relentless attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. He reads a user comment from 'Tordara Iverson' who suggests that rather than criticising the Ukrainians, the US should provide Ukraine with the capability to strike Russian air bases instead, highlighting the hypocrisy of the US position given its failure to provide Ukraine with long-range weapons. Jonathan agrees, noting that the recent Presidential Drawdown Authority has achieved very little in practical terms. Jonathan reads another comment, this time from Jakub Yanovsky (Oryx), who suggests that if the US wants to dictate terms to Ukraine then it needs to provide more military support and weapons to Ukraine, including long range missiles to target Russian air bases and to do more to close loopholes which are allowing Russia to bypass oil price caps. Jonathan agrees with this analysis. He finishes the topic by mentioning that he spoke with Jonathan Fink, from 'Silicon Curtain' recently who suggested that this was more about concerns about escalation than about economics.
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Russian Iskander-M strike on Ukrainian Howitzers
🎦 22:24-25:18⏩
Jonathan reports that the Russians have struck a warehouse in Zelyzny in the Sumy Oblast with an Iskander-M ballistic missile, claiming that 32 Ukrainian D-20 Howitzers were destroyed in the strike. The location is of note because it's only 40km from the Russian border in an area that was occupied by Russia after the invasion, suggesting that the Russians knew it was there. Jonathan expresses scepticism about the significance of this loss as the howitzers had been in the same location since 2017. He suspects that the howitzers were either not in working order or were being used for spare parts as it's very unlikely that Ukraine would have left 30 working howitzers unused in a warehouse for seven years whilst crying out for artillery. He does however note that Paul Conroy, a photojournalist, recently interviewed a mortar team in Kherson who had salvaged a D-20, found wheels for it and taught themselves how to fire it using YouTube videos - which could suggest that there is a use for these older howitzers. That said, he still believes that the loss of these howitzers isn't particularly significant.
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Severe flooding in Russia
🎦 25:18-27:07⏩
Jonathan reports that widespread flooding in Russia, caused by several dam breaches is having a significant impact, with tens of thousands of people displaced. He shows footage from Russian media showing the extent of the flooding. The water level on the Ural River in Orenburg has exceeded 10 metres.
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Flooding impacts Russian early warning radar system
🎦 26:40-27:07⏩
Jonathan reports that the flooding is impacting Russia's missile defence system, with the Voronezh-M early warning radar, located near Orsk, in danger of being flooded. The loss of this system would significantly compromise Russia's ability to track ICBM launches from the south. He notes that it would take several years to replace the system if it is lost.
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Discontent in Russia over handling of flooding disaster
🎦 27:07-28:45⏩
Jonathan discusses reports of growing discontent in Russia with the government's handling of the flooding. He references a report from Anton Grishchenko that residents are angry about the lack of support, particularly given the resources devoted to Crimea after its annexation in 2014. He reads a number of social media comments from Russian citizens complaining about the lack of help and drawing comparisons between the government's response to the floods and the attention lavished on Crimea, and suggesting that they should declare independence. He notes that this is exactly the kind of discontent that the Ukrainians want to see. He ends the topic by discussing the impact of Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, noting that after making progress on energy security, Ukraine is now having to import energy again after a number of successful Russian attacks on key infrastructure. He shows a graph showing how Ukrainian energy exports have fallen off a cliff.
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Jean-Yves Le Drian: Ukraine will not be allowed to lose
🎦 29:50-31:44⏩
Jonathan reads a quote from Jean-Yves Le Drian, the former French Minister of the Armed Forces, in which he argues that Putin has made a series of miscalculations, including underestimating both Ukrainian resistance and the resolve of the international community, and overestimating the capability of the Russian military. He cites the sinking of the Moskva, the attack on the Kerch Strait bridge and the withdrawal of the Black Sea Fleet as evidence of this. He believes that the capture of Avdiivka was insignificant given the losses incurred by the Russians in achieving this. Le Drian argues that it is now clear that Ukraine cannot be allowed to lose the war and that there is a need for increased support. He advocates the need for the EU to increase military production, particularly of ammunition, in order to be able to meet Ukraine's needs, and calls for the EU to raise a €100bn loan to finance this. Jonathan expresses the view that Le Drian's analysis is both "interesting" and "positive".
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Wrap up
🎦 31:44-32:33⏩
Jonathan reflects that whilst it's easy to feel despondent when the Russians make gains, it's important to remember the successes of the Ukrainians and the heavy cost that Russia has had to pay for its victories. He thanks his viewers for watching and signs off.
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