Ukraine War Update EXTRA: Girkin, Arty Ammo, Challenger/Leopards, & Contractors Hit?
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Table of Contents 📖
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"Logistics are everything in war, other than shooting and fighting. It is also the context most often left out because of the usual reasons."
Hello Team!
Jonathan introduces the topics he will cover in this Ukraine War Update Extra video, including a thread from Mark Hertling on why the West didn't provide military equipment to Ukraine sooner, and a story he's saving for tomorrow about China.
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Reasons for Delay in Providing Military Equipment to Ukraine
- Mark Hertling, a retired US Army general, explains the logistical and practical reasons why the West did not provide Ukraine with advanced military equipment and training earlier in the war
- Challenges include: the number of Ukrainian soldiers needing training, sourcing equipment from the US military, risks to US national security, complexity of the equipment, and coordination among NATO allies
- Hertling emphasizes that no one is intentionally slowing aid to Ukraine and everyone wants to save Ukrainian lives, but the process is complex
Update on Makiivka Strike and Russian Casualties
- The Makiivka strike on a Russian barracks killed an estimated 400-600 Russian soldiers, mostly mobilized troops, who were billeted next to stored ammunition
- Russia initially denied or downplayed the casualties, but evidence emerged of bodies being transported and falling off overcrowded trucks
- Russia retaliated with missile strikes on Ukrainian cities, falsely claiming to have killed hundreds, but independent journalists confirmed minimal damage and casualties
- The Ukrainian narrative appears more accurate than the Russian one regarding these incidents
Igor Girkin's Criticism of Putin
- Igor Girkin, a Russian military blogger and former commander of separatist forces in Donbas, has become increasingly critical of Putin's leadership in the war
- Girkin states that Russia is on the verge of military defeat and that capturing small towns will not change the situation
- He blames the "mediocre generals and mercenary officials" appointed by Putin and says his criticism is a duty, even if it puts his life at risk
Investigation into Civilian Contractors Killed in Lantrativka Strike
- An open-source investigation reveals that over 80 Russian civilian contractors hired to dig trenches and build fortifications were killed in a Ukrainian HIMARS strike on a school in Russian-occupied Lantrativka
- Official Russian sources initially reported only 11 casualties, but an unnamed witness claims 84 died, mostly workers from different regions of Russia
- The contractors were unaware they were in Ukraine, and some were based across the border in Belgorod
- The morality of targeting civilian contractors working on military infrastructure is debated, with some arguing they are legitimate targets due to their direct contribution to the war effort
Elon Musk's Controversial Statements on Tanks in Ukraine
- Elon Musk sparked debate on Twitter by claiming tanks are "death traps" in the Ukraine war and drawing parallels to World War I trench warfare
- Several military experts, including Mark Hertling and Trent Telenko, refuted Musk's statements, emphasizing the importance of context and logistics when analyzing the effectiveness of tanks
- Telenko explains that most tanks destroyed by drones in videos were already abandoned or immobilized, often due to Russia's lack of armored recovery vehicles
- The experts agree that Musk's comments, while misguided, provide a teachable moment about the complexities of armored warfare and logistics
Declining Russian Artillery Ammunition Stockpiles
- US and Ukrainian sources report that Russian artillery fire has decreased by up to 75% compared to the summer, with Russia now firing around 5,000 shells per day across the front line
- Factors contributing to the decline include overestimated stockpiles, inefficient storage, and Ukrainian attacks on Russian ammunition depots and logistics
- The reduced artillery fire raises questions about the strategic value of Russian assaults on Bakhmut and Soledar, as they may be expending their limited ammunition on tactically insignificant targets
Developments in Western Tank Deliveries to Ukraine
- Poland and Lithuania have agreed to provide Ukraine with a platoon of 14 Leopard 2 tanks, marking a significant milestone in Western support
- The UK government is reportedly planning to send Challenger 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine, though details are not yet confirmed
- Speculation arises about a US Air Force transport plane flying from Jordan to Scotland, possibly carrying Jordanian Challenger 1 tanks for Ukrainian troops to train on in the UK
- The Challenger 1, while older than the Challenger 2, may be easier for Ukrainian forces to master and still provide an advantage over Russian tanks
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for their support, encourages them to like, subscribe, and share the video, and mentions ways to support the channel, such as buying his books or donating. He also acknowledges the hardships faced by those in Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
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🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
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