Ukraine War Update NEWS (20230829a): Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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"I think Wagner Group is essentially no more. It's deceased. It is pining for the fjords, to quote Monty Python."
Hello Team!
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the first part of the Ukraine War News Update for 29 August 2023.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Figures for Russian Losses
- 530 Russian personnel lost on 28 August, consistent with the current average during the Ukrainian counter-offensive
- 14 tanks and 17 armoured personnel vehicles lost, totalling 31 pieces of mechanised equipment - a huge loss
- 25 pieces of artillery taken out, another massive loss
- Questions remain about the accuracy of Ukrainian figures and Russia's ability to replace lost equipment
Satellite Imagery Analysis
- Satellite imagery shows significant damage to a Russian S-400 air defence battery hit in Crimea, but it's unclear if the entire battery was destroyed
- Imagery of an air base in Kursk, Russia attacked by Ukrainian drones shows minimal damage, contrary to initial claims
Russian Troop Movements and Missile Strikes
- Russia has withdrawn ground troops from Belarus, possibly redeploying them to the Kupyansk-Liman direction
- Russian missile strikes on Ukraine have decreased this summer, potentially indicating stockpiling or reduced production capacity
- Explosions reported in Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Luhansk, with Russian air defences active in Crimea
Other News
- Wagner Group is ceasing to exist according to a Russian State Duma deputy, likely being replaced by entities aligned with the Russian Ministry of Defence
- Russians accused of stealing money meant for constructing border defences with Ukraine
- Jonathan highlights the confusing similarity of place names in Ukraine, often located very close to each other
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and encourages them to like, subscribe and share. He will continue with part 2 of the update.
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