Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
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Table of Contents 📖
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"Winter is about to arrive and with it, the reduction of operational capabilities on the front."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an update on the frontlines of the Ukraine conflict as of 1st December 2023. He notes it has been a challenging day for Ukraine according to the mappers. The key to the map is provided for viewers to pause and check.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Kupiansk Sector
- South of Lyman Pershyi, Russian troops have entrenched in a forest area and continue to advance near Sinkivka. They are also attacking towards Petropavlivka.
- According to Russian sources, Russians are advancing on the outskirts of Sinkivka and having some success south of Lyman Pershyi.
- The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports Russian military bloggers claim Russians have pushed Ukrainians out of positions near Lyman Pershyi, entered the outskirts of Sinkivka, and penetrated Ukrainian defences along the Timkivka-Ivanivka-Kizilivka line. However, ISW has not confirmed these claims.
Bakhmut
- According to Andrew Perpetua's mapping, Russians have had success around Opytne/Ivangrad, taking control of the northeastern segments of the village. The area near the reservoir is still a grey zone.
- ISW reports a Russian military blogger claimed Russians captured a section of the Bakhmut-Soledar highway near Opytne. Russian bloggers also reiterated claims that the 11th Separate Airborne Brigade captured Opytne and advanced in forest areas north and northwest, but this is not visually confirmed.
- Jonathan suggests Russians likely control most of Opytne based on Andrew Perpetua's mapping, which could threaten the Ukrainian position on the high ground that is useful for defending Bakhmut.
Avdiivka
- No changes around Holievka which has been static for 3-4 days.
- Russians have gained a foothold in Stepove village to the east according to Direct and Deep State maps. ISW reports Russian bloggers claim advances west of the railway line near Stepove and Novomykhailivka.
- Russian sources also claimed advances north of the industrial zone southeast of Avdiivka with ongoing fighting near the coke plant and slag pile.
- Ukrainian spokesperson Colonel Stupin stated the frozen ground has softened to mud, complicating vehicle operations for both sides. He also said Russians are conducting glide bomb strikes with Su-35 aircraft near Avdiivka.
Mariinka
- Significant gains reported for Russians in Mariinka according to some Russian sources. Syrskyi Maps claims 90% of the town is under Russian control based on video footage showing a Russian flag on a building geolocated to the western edge.
- Syrskyi Maps suggests Ukrainians have started withdrawing from the southwestern part of Mariinka.
- However, Jonathan notes the appearance of one Russian in an area doesn't necessarily mean full control has shifted, based on insight from Andrew Perpetua. He advises waiting for Perpetua's assessment.
- If the Russian claims are true, it would be concerning as Mariinka has helped keep major Ukrainian-held towns like Krasnohorivka, Nevelske and Pervomaiske safe. Status quo preferred for Ukraine but fighting has been tough for a long time.
Southern Front
- Relatively quiet compared to previously.
- Near Orikhiv/Robotyne, a Ukrainian spokesperson said Russian forces have become "somewhat more active" in the Zaporizhzhia direction and are trying to recapture lost positions despite heavy rain and snow.
- In Kherson, the situation is unchanged. Russian aviation and artillery continue to heavily strike the area which is difficult for Ukrainians.
- Expanding the bridgehead near Kherson would help Ukraine bring in more supplies and avoid troop concentration that increases vulnerability. Some talks of areas reverting to Russian control but no confirmation or mapping changes.
Wrap Up
In summary, Jonathan suggests it's not super positive news for Ukraine today but also not a massive amount of developments. There are a number of concerns for Ukraine but questions remain about their significance. Even if Mariinka fully falls to Russia, Jonathan notes it has no intrinsic value as a destroyed town. However, it would bring Russians closer to important Ukrainian towns in the area. He concludes that any loss of territory, even low-value, means having to fight in the next place which brings Russia closer and closer to higher value targets in Ukraine. Still, a challenging day for Ukrainians.
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