Ukraine War Update: Full Frontline Update
Title:Ukraine War Update: Full Frontline Update Topics:
Table of Contents 📖
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"May the 4th be with you as I have already said today in my news video."
Kremlin drone attack
- ISW suggests Russia likely staged the Kremlin drone attack to bring the war home to the domestic audience and set conditions for wider societal mobilization
- Jonathan is unsure but leans towards Ukraine not being responsible as it would be counterproductive
- The rapid, coherent Russian response indicates the attack may have been internally prepared
- Russia may conduct more false flag operations to increase domestic support ahead of the Ukrainian counter-offensive
📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Northeast sector (Kupyansk to Svatove to Kreminna)
- Not much to report, just some skirmishes in Bilohorivka, Bakhmut, New York, and Avdiivka areas
- Claims that around 100 Russian soldiers were surrounded near Bilohorivka, but Russians deny this
- ISW reports repelled operations in Dubrovo and Bilohorivka, and Russian attempts at Novoselivka and Serebryansky forest
Bakhmut
- Ukrainians control a very small amount of territory in western Bakhmut (1.89-2.7 sq km)
- Geolocated footage shows Russian advances closer to the O0506 highway northwest of Khromove
- Operational security may be limiting information coming out of Bakhmut
- Prolet Voulon map suggests Ukrainians may be pushing back slightly in the center
- Wagner PMC expanded control along Paramogi Street; storming continues on Vizotlocheliv Donbasu Street
Avdiivka, Marinka, Donetsk
- Russian MoD acknowledged limited Ukrainian counterattacks in Avdiivka area
- In Marinka, fierce fighting continues in the southern outskirts; Russians broke through near Gorgas
- Ukrainians targeting Russian artillery, slowing their offensive; 16 artillery pieces, 3 MLRS, and 4 air defense systems hit
Southern front (Vuhledar, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson)
- Prolet Voulon map suggests Ukrainians took back territory west of Vuhledar and southwest of Pavlivka
- In Zaporizhzhia, Russian sources amplify claims of Ukrainian activity to suggest counter-offensive may have begun
- Heavy shelling by both sides in Kherson; Russians conducted 110 strikes, Ukrainians 100
- Pamphlets warn residents to avoid Russian positions due to potential Ukrainian strikes
Wrap up
Jonathan notes that while it was a quieter day, something is brewing and the upcoming Ukrainian counter-offensive will likely be centered around Zaporizhzhia. There will also likely be moves of deception and feints to exploit any weak points in Russian defenses. The counter-offensive may start as a distraction but turn into a major strike if vulnerabilities are found.
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