Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
🤖
This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"If you are so anti-Ukraine that you support...Russia...what's going on in your head, you mentalist!"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:13⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a bumper news update for the 1st of March, wishing everyone a happy first day of the month.
Return to top⤴️
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report Russian Losses
🎦 00:15-02:15⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's report of Russian losses for the previous day (28th February 2024).
- The figures are higher than the average for the past few months.
- 920 personnel, 17 tanks, 30 armoured personnel vehicles and 36 artillery systems were lost.
- Ukrainian losses are unknown but thought to be significant. A contact suggests as many as 100 vehicles may have been lost repelling attacks around Orlivka and Krasnohorivka.
Andrew Perpetua's Visually Confirmed Losses - 28th February 2024
🎦 02:15-05:15⏩
Jonathan reviews visually confirmed losses based on Andrew Perpetua's (@AndrewPerpetua) work. This data is from social media posts so should be treated with caution.
- Russian losses for 28th February: "A massive array" of equipment including a T-90 tank, numerous BMPs and BTRs, trucks and "a whole bunch" of Desert Cross buggies (provided by China).
- Ukrainian losses for 28th February: Three surveillance systems, one drone, three boats, three artillery pieces, two tanks (one a T-72), one Bradley infantry fighting vehicle and a BMP-1. Jonathan notes that the loss of the Bradley will be an issue.
- Overall, losses are high for both sides with Russia's significantly higher. Jonathan highlights that the ratio of losses is what Ukraine needs as Russia can sustain heavier losses.
Andrew Perpetua's Visually Confirmed Losses - 1st March 2024
🎦 05:21-10:06⏩
Jonathan reviews visually confirmed losses based on Andrew Perpetua's (@AndrewPerpetua) work for the 1st of March.
- Ukrainian losses include a KPE 563S radar, an S-300 launcher, a BUK-M1 air defence system, a Polish "Crab" or British AS90 self-propelled howitzer and a Zuzana 2 howitzer. Also included is a Leopard 2A6 tank, a Marder infantry fighting vehicle and a Bradley. Jonathan notes that he'd previously listed this equipment in an earlier video based on footage released by War Vehicle Tracker (@WarMonitors) and it's likely to have been lost over an extended period. He believes these are significant losses.
- Russian losses are numerous and include a Tor-M air defence system, surveillance and communications equipment, an engineering vehicle, artillery, a T-90M tank (leading Jonathan to speculate that Russia may have lost two thirds of its T-90Ms), numerous BMPs, APCs, trucks and civilian vehicles.
- Jonathan concludes that whilst Russia has sustained the heaviest losses, the loss of the Ukrainian equipment is significant.
Speculation about Downing of Russian Aircraft
🎦 10:06-17:29⏩
- Jonathan discusses the significant number of Russian aircraft losses. He highlights that whilst visually confirmed losses are useful, it doesn't provide the full picture as the planes are being shot down far behind the front lines.
- There's speculation as to the causes of the increase in Russian aircraft losses. Some, like Thomas C. Theiner (@noclador) believe that the US may have supplied Ukraine with either a new Patriot missile system or the Navy's SM-6 Block 1 missile. Others, like Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) believe that Ukraine may have adapted older S-200 systems, networked them with good radars, and it's this that is responsible.
- Ukraine's Air Force spokesman, Yurii Ihnat confirmed that the loss of the A-50 AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control System) is hindering Russian operations.
- Jonathan explains why the loss of the A-50 is so significant, underlining how the curvature of the earth impacts how radars work. With an A-50, ground-based radars and the A-50 can be used to overcome the challenges posed by the earth's curvature. Without it, Russian aircraft are having to fly lower, making them more vulnerable, and also impacting their ability to deploy guided munitions effectively.
Russian use of KAB Bombs
🎦 17:29-22:18⏩
- Despite the increase in aircraft losses, the use of KAB bombs (Russian equivalent of the JDAM) has, according to Ukrainian journalist and military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko (@Kobar63) increased. Kovalenko believes that this is because Russia sees the KAB bomb as critical to their war effort. Jonathan believes that Russia is prepared to lose planes if it means they can use these bombs effectively.
- Jonathan highlights that the loss of Avdiivka was in large part due to the effective use of KAB-500 and KAB-1500 bombs.
- Despite the risks, Russia continues to increase its use of KAB bombs, with 152 deployed on 29th February (the highest number yet). Avdiivka and its surrounding areas are where these bombs are being used most.
- Jonathan concludes that Russia appears to be employing the same strategy in the air as on the ground i.e. prepared to lose equipment and personnel.
Maritime Losses - Russian Icebreaker on fire, Submarine activity in Novorossiysk
🎦 23:05-25:06⏩
- The Irmak icebreaker is on fire in St. Petersburg. Jonathan finds this amusing but doesn't go into the details as to why.
- A Kilo-class submarine was seen being towed in Novorossiysk. It is unclear if this is unusual activity or routine. Jonathan speculates that this could be related to Ukrainian activity and notes that Ukraine is now producing as many drones as Iran is supplying to Russia (100,000 per month). Jonathan believes that if he was Ukrainian, he'd be using these to target the submarine fleet.
- Andriy Yermak (Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine) posted a cryptic tweet showing a boat, leading some, like PS01, to believe this may be another submarine that has been hit.
Maritime Losses - FSB Coast Guard Boat Destroyed in Sea of Azov
🎦 25:20-25:51⏩
- A Russian FSB Coast Guard boat has been destroyed in the Sea of Azov.
Footage of Ukrainian S-300 Destruction Confirmed
🎦 25:51-26:42⏩
War Vehicle Tracker (@WarMonitors) has confirmed the destruction of the Ukrainian S-300 battery, with footage showing at least the erector launcher destroyed.
Return to top⤴️
Russia Claims Ukrainian POWs Killed in IL-76 Crash, Offers to Return Bodies
🎦 26:42-30:37⏩
- Russia is claiming that the IL-76 cargo plane that crashed in Belgorod Oblast on the 24th of January was carrying 65 Ukrainian POWs.
- Jonathan, and many OSINT analysts believe this to be disinformation. Analysis of the flight suggests that it would have been impossible for the plane to have been carrying POWs.
- Russia has now said that it will return the bodies to Ukraine, with Tatiana Moskalkova (Russia's Human Rights Commissioner) stating that the bodies have been identified using DNA.
- Jonathan is suspicious and believes these are unlikely to be the bodies of the POWs. He speculates that Russia may have used bodies of Ukrainian soldiers killed elsewhere. He calls for the bodies to be examined if they are returned.
- Dmitry Lubinets (Ukrainian Parliament's Human Rights Commissioner) has stated that Russia has still not provided a list of the dead.
Russian Drone & Missile Attacks Overnight
🎦 30:37-32:25⏩
- Ukraine reports that it shot down four Shahed drones overnight, as well as five S-300 missiles.
- In Kostantynivka, a police department, hospital, two kindergartens, a government building, two businesses, five apartment buildings, and three private houses were damaged in the attacks.
Ukrainian Drone Attacks on Russian Territory
🎦 32:25-33:57⏩
- Ukrainian drones were active over the Kursk region in Russia overnight on the 1st of March, causing power outages.
- Explosions were also reported in Dzerzhinsk, in Russia's Nizhny Novgorod region. Although Russian authorities claim to have shot down the drone, there are suggestions that damage was caused to an ammunition factory.
- The Ukrainian Air Force confirms that it destroyed a command post and missile artillery depot near a military base in Chelburda, in Kherson Oblast, using a JDAM. This is significant as it suggests that Russia's air defences in this area have degraded significantly.
Alexei Navalny's Funeral
🎦 34:01-37:08⏩
- Jonathan reports on the funeral of Alexei Navalny, highlighting the attempts by the Russian authorities to prevent it from going ahead or at the very least, limit the number of people attending.
- Tactics used to deter mourners include making it impossible to book hearses and funeral halls, and threatening anyone involved.
- Roman Golovanov, a Russian MP called for the arrest of anyone attending who isn't a relative.
- Despite the restrictions and intimidation, large crowds have gathered for the funeral.
Russia's Economic Woes & Tax Increases
🎦 37:08-37:42⏩
- Jonathan briefly mentions that Russia's gold reserves have been depleted, with China now holding a large proportion of its reserves.
- Putin has increased taxes for Russians.
Tucker Carlson Admits "De-Nazification" Claim was "Dumb"
🎦 37:43-39:20⏩
- Tucker Carlson, in a recent interview, admits that Putin's justification for invading Ukraine (the so-called "de-nazification" of Ukraine) was "one of the dumbest things I've ever heard".
- Jonathan, whilst pleased that Carlson has finally publicly acknowledged this, points out that Carlson is complicit in spreading this disinformation, highlighting that Carlson's platform gave legitimacy to this view.
Russian Woman Jailed for Reading Poem
🎦 39:55-40:36⏩
- 18-year-old Darya Kozyreva faces five years in prison for reciting a poem by Ukrainian poet Taras Shevchenko on the anniversary of the invasion.
US Condemns Russia's Human Rights Abuses
🎦 40:37-41:19⏩
- The US and 44 other countries have condemned Russia's human rights abuses, invoking the OSCE "Moscow Mechanism" to investigate the arbitrary detention of civilians and other abuses.
Ukrainian Cyber Attack Targets mail.ru
🎦 41:19-41:51⏩
- Ukraine has launched a cyber attack on mail.ru - Russia's largest internet portal, causing disruption for users.
Elon Musk, Disinformation, Twitter & His Support of Russia
🎦 41:51-45:05⏩
- Jonathan once again expresses his concern about the volume of disinformation on Twitter, believing that Elon Musk is "in the pockets of Putin".
- Jonathan highlights Musk's increasingly overt political support of the Republicans in the US and in particular Donald Trump. A recent NBC article suggests that Musk stands to benefit financially if Trump secures a second term as this would lead to far less scrutiny of his business activities.
- The US authorities are currently investigating numerous aspects of Musk's business empire, from Tesla's autopilot system, SpaceX's hiring practices, allegations of racial harassment, union busting and financial irregularities. Jonathan believes that Musk's support for Russia is driven by his business interests: Tesla, SpaceX and Starlink all rely on Russian resources.
Wrap up
🎦 45:18-45:21⏩
- Jonathan thanks viewers and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video.
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
Who is JR? Jonathan mentions him in the context of maps at timestamp 01:34 but I couldn't find any other information.
What is the "Orlivka and maybe the Krasnohirovka area"? Is this one place or two? I was unable to clarify this.
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
This is the first transcript I will be summarising for "ATP Distilled" so I want to make sure I follow the steps carefully.
Step 1: Identify title, date and part
The Youtube Title is "Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS (20240301a): Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News"
Extract the Title by removing the date and part in parentheses: "Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News"
Extract the date and convert from YYYYMMDD to DD/MM/YYYY: 01/03/2024
Extract the part - this is "A"
Step 2: Identify the topics
Jonathan starts the video with his usual "Hello Team" and mentions it's the 1st of March (which is nice). This will be my first topic.
He then moves onto Ukrainian General Staff figures and Andrew Perpetua's visually confirmed losses (which Jonathan refers to as "Lost Stats"). I'll create separate topics for each.
Jonathan then spends quite a bit of time discussing the downing of Russian aircraft, speculation about the weapons being used, impact on tactics, and Russian responses so I'll create a topic for this.
There's then some discussion about maritime losses. I'll create a new topic for this.
I'll then create separate topics for each of the other main points, ensuring each topic is granular and specific.
Step 3: Identify topic timestamps
Watch/listen to the video and note down the start and end timestamps for each topic.
Double check the timestamps to ensure there are no gaps
Step 4: Write a summary of each topic
Summarise the key points for each topic using bullet points where appropriate.
Include Jonathan's insights and analysis as this is what makes his content so compelling.
Ensure I'm conveying the information accurately and with the appropriate level of detail.
Step 5: Choose a quote
Review the transcript and select a quote that is significant/meaningful/poignant or hilarious
Make sure the quote is concise
Step 6: Check for any queries
Review steps 1-5 and make a note of anything that doesn't make sense
