Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"If Poland invaded Russia, I think Poland alone could defeat Russia now, given that Russia is committed to Ukraine."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides his usual caveats about the Ukrainian released figures for Russian losses, emphasizing that while arguably propaganda, he looks at them as indicative values to get a sense of what happened compared to previous time periods. Russia had a record loss day with 1,140 personnel liquidated.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Evidence of High Russian Losses
- Footage of trenches with many dead bodies suggests high death count
- Russia has set up mobile crematoria in Zaporizhzhia region, indicating high losses and desire to avoid reporting deaths
- British intelligence estimates Russia has lost half its main battle tank stock in combat and through Ukrainian capture
Drone and Missile Attacks
- 20 Shahed drones shot down in attack last night, but some hit energy facilities in previous wave
- On Feb 10, Russia launched 106 missiles (74 cruise missiles, 32 S-300 anti-aircraft missiles). 61 of 74 cruise missiles destroyed.
- Russia also carried out 59 airstrikes, 28 with Shahed drones, 22 shot down
- Over 90 attacks from MLRS
Prisoner Recruitment by Wagner
Wagner has stopped recruiting prisoners, likely due to news of harsh realities of service filtering to inmates, reducing volunteers. A key factor is also increasing rivalry between Russian MoD and Wagner. Russia now faces choice of depleting forces further, scaling back objectives, or conducting another mobilization.
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Speculation about Ukrainian Offensive
Footage of British vehicles and Ukrainian troops has led to speculation about an offensive building in Kharkiv/Luhansk, but Jonathan believes this is highly unlikely to be a real offensive buildup due to poor operational security. It is almost certainly a training exercise.
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Russian Attacks and Tactics
- Unconfirmed reports of Russian troops entering rural eastern Kharkiv from Russian territory
- Russians shelling many areas, including behind front lines like Bohoiavlenka
- Russia used a submersible drone to attack a bridge in Odesa, a change in tactics
- Su-24 bombers attacked Snake Island
- Melitopol hit by six strong explosions, likely HIMARS
Military Aid to Ukraine
- Zelenskyy reports new undisclosed support from Paris and Berlin after European visit
- Ukraine submitted formal request to Netherlands for F-16s
- Germany hopes to deliver 80 Leopard 2 tanks by end of March
- Lithuania sent batch of L-70 anti-aircraft guns
- Switzerland rejected Spanish request to re-export Swiss anti-aircraft guns to Ukraine
Companies Remaining in Russia
Many foreign companies remain in Russia, with numbers not decreasing much since initial reaction to invasion. Free market economics cannot arbitrate morality, so without regulation, companies will continue operating in Russia unless it becomes unprofitable or they face strong public pressure.
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Wrap up
Jonathan invites respectful disagreement and debate from viewers who may have different opinions. He appreciates support through likes, subscribes, and shares. He will aim to provide a front line update soon.
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