Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other Christmas News
Table of Contents 📖
"I get criticised by Russian trolls on this channel for not giving the Russian official figures or not giving the Ukrainian losses as according to Russian sources. And the problem is those Russian sources are so unbelievable. They lack so much credibility that it is just fanciful to believe. I mean, their claims are fanciful, and believing them makes you a bit of a gullible fool".
Hello Team
🎦 00:00- 00:22
Jonathan wishes everyone a Merry Christmas and welcomes everyone to a Christmas Day update - with a festive mulled wine.
Return to top⤴️
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Daily Losses 24/12/2023
🎦 00:22- 01:27
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses for 24/12/2023. These are listed in the video description:
- 760 Personnel
- 19 Tanks
- 31 Armoured Personnel Vehicles
- 33 Artillery Systems
- 2 MLRS
- 2 Anti-aircraft Warfare Systems
- 2 Aircraft
- 32 Drones
- 2 Cruise Missiles
- 53 Vehicles and Fuel Tanks
- 5 Pieces of Special Equipment
Jonathan notes that these are significant losses - particularly the loss of 19 tanks in a day. The high figures are likely to indicate that the Russians have been on the offensive.
Return to top⤴️
Patriot Air Defence System Impact
🎦 01:27-02:59⏩
There were rumours circulating that a Patriot air defence system had taken out three Russian Su Fighters. Jonathan speculates whether the increase in Russian strikes on Kherson was in retaliation. However, there have been no further strikes on the Dnipro River area with FAB-500 guided glide bombs which suggests that the Ukrainians taking down the Russian aircraft (whether it was a Patriot or not) has resulted in a change in Russian VKS (Russian Aerospace Forces) behaviour.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Su-34 and Su-30SM shot down
🎦 02:59-03:44⏩
Confirmation that a Russian Su-34 was shot down in the Mariupol direction and a Russian Su-30SM over the Black Sea. This is a blow for the Russian VKS and will cause further disruption given the impact of the downing of the three Su fighters a few days ago.
Return to top⤴️
Russian pilot losses are unsustainable
🎦 03:44-05:26⏩
Jonathan discusses the loss of Russian aircraft. He notes that Russia has put a pause on the Su-34 bombing raids in Ukraine following the downing of the three aircraft, and now a fourth has been shot down. It is not so much the loss of the airframes, but the loss of the trained pilots which is more difficult to sustain for Russia. The BBC has reported that more than 200 Russian pilots have been lost since the start of the war. Each pilot takes at least six years to train and costs in excess of $3m.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Tit for Tat Information War
🎦 05:26-07:48⏩
Following the downing of the Su fighters (and the rumoured Patriot hit) Russia has been retaliating in the information war, claiming "tit for tat" with their own list of Ukrainian losses:
- Destruction of a Nazam Air Defence System
- Destruction of a Kratal NG Launcher
- Downing of three Ukrainian Su-27s
- Downing of one Ukrainian Su-24
The Russian MOD then upped the ante, claiming they had shot down four Ukrainian F-16s, later increasing this to six. They also claimed that a Patriot system had been destroyed. Jonathan is sceptical about these claims highlighting the lack of credibility of the Russian MOD and Russian sources generally: > "I get criticised by Russian trolls on this channel for not giving the Russian official figures or not giving the Ukrainian losses as according to Russian sources. And the problem is those Russian sources are so unbelievable. They lack so much credibility that it is just fanciful to believe. I mean, their claims are fanciful, and believing them makes you a bit of a gullible fool". Jonathan concludes that he believes the Russian claims (6 F-16s, Kratal, Nazam, Patriot) are unbelievable.
Return to top⤴️
Another Russian Military Plane Crash?
🎦 07:48-08:20⏩
Unconfirmed reports that another Russian military aircraft has crashed. Residents in the Yeysk region of Russia have been complaining of strange noises and black smoke, with some reports suggesting that an ambulance was seen going to the coast.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Propagandist Anton Krasovsky "Poisoned"?
🎦 08:20-09:25⏩
Anton Krasovsky, the Russian propagandist who called for the drowning and burning of Ukrainian children, has reportedly been admitted to hospital in Moscow with suspected poisoning. Jonathan reminds viewers that following the outcry after he made those comments (which Jonathan covered on his channel) Krasovsky was suspended from his role (he believes he was deputy production manager at the time) at the TV station. He doesn't know how reliable the reports are, but has seen them circulating in various places.
Return to top⤴️
Nuclear Incident: Fire on Russian Nuclear powered ship Sevmoput
🎦 09:25-09:47⏩
A fire broke out on Sevmoput, a nuclear-powered container ship in the port of Murmansk. It is the largest nuclear powered ship in Russia.
Return to top⤴️
Russia on Fire: Three Incidents - Chita, St Petersburg and Murmansk
🎦 09:47-10:27⏩
Jonathan reports on three incidents in Russia:
- A car park fire in the city of Chita in Eastern Russia destroyed 30 vehicles.
- A large fire in a warehouse in St Petersberg. The fire burned for several hours. The warehouse is in the Nevsky district and reportedly housed building materials.
- The fire on the Sevmoput (see above)
Jonathan doesn't know whether there was anything suspicious about any of these fires or whether they were accidents.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian Overnight Drone/Missile/Aircraft attack
🎦 10:27-11:09⏩
Jonathan discusses Ukrainian overnight attacks and links back to the downing of the two Russian aircraft earlier. Ukraine has included the two aircraft in the overnight figures:
- 28 Drones
- 2 Missiles
- 2 Fighter Jets
The Ukrainians haven't released the interception rate for the drones, so it is unclear how many got through. Jonathan considers this to be a fairly typical drone wave attack.
Return to top⤴️
Aftermath of Russian Shelling of Kherson
🎦 11:09-12:46⏩
Following the reported downing of the three Russian Su fighters by the Patriot air defence system a few days ago, the Russians attacked Kherson. The attacks coincided with Christmas Eve and Christmas Day in the Gregorian Calendar (Ukraine recently switched to celebrating Christmas on 25th December). The attacks resulted in 5 deaths in Kherson and extensive damage to civilian infrastructure including private houses, a multi-storey building and the local hospital. Jonathan considers this to be further evidence of Russian war crimes.
Return to top⤴️
Explosions reported in Mariupol
🎦 12:46-12:59⏩
Petro Andryushchenko, advisor to the Mayor of Mariupol has reported explosions in the city.
Return to top⤴️
Large fire in Horlivka
🎦 12:59-13:26⏩
A large fire has been reported in the city of Horlivka in Russian-occupied Donetsk. Footage of the fire has been shared on social media. Some reports claim the fire was at an oil depot, whereas others report it was at a shopping centre (or potentially next door).
Return to top⤴️
Wagner Defector to provide evidence at ICC
🎦 13:26-15:42⏩
Jonathan refers to a Wagner defector he had discussed in a previous video who had been exposing information about Russian operations. The defector, Igor Salikov, has arrived in the Hague to provide evidence of Russian war crimes at the International Criminal Court (ICC). Salikov has made a number of claims in an interview with Euromaidan Press:
- He commanded FSB Spetsnaz (special forces) in the Donbas in 2014 who were disguised as Ukrainian separatists
- Russian forces murdered civilians in Donetsk in 2015 and blamed Ukrainian forces in order to undermine the Minsk peace agreement.
Jonathan highlights the significance of Salikov's claims, given that Russia has always denied involvement in the conflict which began in 2014, claiming that the so-called Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics were separate entities fighting for independence: >"...this is an admission of the Little Green Men, the illegal invasion by Russia of the Donbas in 2014. I mean, don't give me any of this "NATO encroached" bullshit, right? This is this war was an awful lot of R encroaching and Russia getting involved very nefariously in the Ukrainian, in Ukraine, in Ukrainian politics, in Ukrainian military matters. You know, they supposedly, the LPR, DPR, the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republic militias were like striking out for some kind of independence or striking out for Russian rule. No, they were predominantly Russian soldiers brought down from Russia in 2014 onwards and took off their insignias and were in uniforms, speaking Russian but pretending they were Ukrainian."
Return to top⤴️
Russian Cognitive Dissonance
🎦 15:42-21:26⏩
Jonathan discusses a video clip from a Vox Pop interview with a Russian woman about Putin's wealth. Jonathan uses the example to illustrate how Russians reduce cognitive dissonance. The interviewer establishes with the woman that she believes Putin has around $300bn and that Russia is a rich country. He then asks how that is possible given that Putin only earns 8,000 Rubles per month. The woman's response is "Well, our country is very rich, the richest in the world". He then asks where Putin's wealth comes from and after establishing that it is the "People's money", she rationalises it by saying "Well, I think she might be saying that question herself, because he's a president. He is supposed to have 100 rubles on his account...And then how you reconcile that is, oh, it's cool that he has so much money. I'm happy for him". The video clip then goes on to show run-down hospitals in Russia. Jonathan uses this example to explain the concept of cognitive dissonance reduction - in this case many Russians have a core belief that Putin is a great leader, but this is at odds with the reality that he is corrupt and has become extremely wealthy by stealing from the Russian people. In order to reduce this cognitive dissonance, people will either:
- Change their beliefs - but Jonathan points out that this is rare, particularly if it requires a complete reversal of their beliefs.
- Adapt their beliefs to incorporate the new data
- Adapt the new data to fit with their beliefs.
- Reject the new data (denial)
- Compartmentalise - burying their heads in the sand.
In the case of the woman interviewed, she is demonstrating denial/burying her head in the sand, rationalising it with "it's cool that he has so much money". Jonathan reflects on how Putin has managed to accrue such a large fortune, most likely as a result of a deal he made with the oligarchs when state assets were privatised, allowing them to get rich, whilst ensuring he takes a cut (some claim as much as 50%). Jonathan concludes that the levels of corruption in Russia are endemic and start at the top with Putin.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Refusal to Participate in Assault Operations
🎦 21:26-22:17⏩
Ukrainian sources have reported that an increasing number of Russian soldiers have been refusing to participate in assault operations - in particular those serving in the 1st Army Corps. According to Ukrainian spokesperson, Oleksandr Shtupun, entire groups of Russian servicemen have started surrendering. Jonathan urges caution and advises viewers to take this information with a pinch of salt. He recalls that there were similar reports when the Ukrainians were on the offensive earlier in the war, but these have quietened down over the past month.
Return to top⤴️
Wrap Up
🎦 22:17-23:12⏩
Jonathan thanks everyone for watching and wishes them a Merry Christmas. He asks viewers to spare a thought for the Ukrainians fighting for their freedom (and potentially ours) - and if they are in a country close to Russia (Poland, Baltics, Nordics) for their freedom more imminently.
Return to top⤴️
