Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"There is reason to expect that Ukrainian forces can, in fact, make gains through counteroffensives."
Hello Team!
Jonathan is recording this video update from a hotel room as the Wi-Fi has gone down. He will upload it when he is able to.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian figures for Russian losses
- 610 liquidated Russian personnel, which is still over the daily average for the whole war but lower than recent figures
- 0 tanks and 6 APCs, which is very low compared to high numbers over the last week
- 7 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 7 vehicles/fuel tanks, and 3 pieces of special equipment like electronic warfare jammers
- These lower figures may be due to only 60 attacks being repelled by Ukrainian forces over the past day, suggesting the Russians are not able to maintain momentum
Russian losses and attacks
- Ukrainian General Staff reported about 100 bodies of dead Russians were delivered to a morgue in Troitske, northern Luhansk Oblast
- 140 seriously wounded Russian soldiers also arrived there for treatment
- Video footage from a new Ukrainian-made Shark drone shows a Russian R330Zh Zhitel jamming/radio reconnaissance station destroyed by a precision artillery strike, the first time this type of equipment has been seen taken out
Alleged drone attack in Russia
- Russia claims a drone attack occurred in Kirovsk, 115 miles south of Moscow, damaging an apartment block in a big explosion
- Jonathan is skeptical if it really was a drone attack based on the size of the crater
- However, several significant hits from drones deep in Russian territory have occurred recently, likely worrying Russians about Ukraine's ability to strike far from the front lines
Notable Russian losses
- Commander Dmytro Lysitsky, involved in the 2014 Ilovaisk massacre, was killed in Donetsk region - a loss appreciated by Ukrainians
- An explosion in occupied Mariupol destroyed the car of a Russian commander, with partisan activity suspected
Situation in Avdiivka
- Avdiivka has been under heavy pressure, along with Bakhmut
- According to Rumen intelligence (to be taken with a pinch of salt), Ukrainians have lost surface-to-air missile capabilities in the Avdiivka area
- This has allowed Russian aircraft to operate at medium-high altitudes out of range of Ukrainian MANPADS (shoulder-held anti-aircraft missiles)
- Russians will likely reinforce their successes in Avdiivka, which may explain their recent gains in the area
Fierce fighting footage
- Footage from Verkhnokamianske shows an intense confrontation between Russian infantry and a Ukrainian trench position
- Many Russian soldiers were killed by Ukrainian mortar fire, a flanking group, and tank fire in the multi-part video
- The trench was overtaken one night by Russians before being retaken days later by Ukraine
- The footage demonstrates how much ammunition is expended in such confrontations and the lack of combined arms tactics by the Russian forces
Fires/explosions in Russia
- A fire broke out in the electrical control room at the Perm Powder Plant's administrative building
- This is not the first fire at the plant; no one was injured
- Russia has been experiencing frequent fires at various facilities recently
Military developments
- Ukrainian tanks (likely T-80s) have been seen operating in Bakhmut for the first time, as the city continues to be devastated by fighting
- Avdiivka has faced successive days of aerial bombardment and artillery strikes, leading to the evacuation of all public utilities
- There are claims of Russian collaborators in Avdiivka acting as spotters for Russian strikes
ISW assessment of Putin's intentions
- The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assesses that Putin still seeks to achieve his initial aims in Ukraine through military force, despite growing Western sentiment for a settlement
- The ISW believes only a series of Ukrainian victories through counteroffensives over the next few months may persuade Putin to negotiate on terms other than his full territorial ambitions
Alleged leaked FSB documents
- The Sun, a UK tabloid, claims to have a leaked document from Russia's FSB detailing Putin's plan for the "total cleansing" of Ukraine
- The unverified emails, purportedly from FSB officers to human rights activists, describe house-to-house terror, victims being dragged to camps, and ruthless suppression of resistance
- While fitting the pattern of Russian behavior in occupied areas, the authenticity of the emails is uncertain and they may be part of an information operation
Military aid to Ukraine
- AS90 self-propelled howitzers from the UK have been spotted on trucks in Slovakia en route to Ukraine
- The UK is providing Ukraine with 33 of these artillery pieces; the ammunition is even more crucial than the howitzers themselves
- Ukrainian tank crews have completed Challenger 2 training in the UK; 14 tanks are confirmed with another 14 hinted at by Ukraine
Russian tank deployments
- Upgraded T-62M tanks have been seen on trains in Russia, possibly coming from the 103rd Armored Tank Repair Plant
- While not as capable as modern tanks Ukraine is receiving, like the Leopard 2 and Challenger 2, these vintage tanks can still pose a threat and should not be dismissed
Geopolitical developments
- The EU is prepared to impose new sanctions if Belarus continues to allow the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons on its territory
- Israel is facing domestic upheaval after Prime Minister Netanyahu dismissed the defense minister for opposing judiciary reforms, sparking mass protests
- The crisis could impact Israel's stance on the Ukraine war, as Iran, an Israeli adversary, is supplying drones to Russia
- Tensions between the US and Iran have also escalated following a series of strikes in Syria
Wrap up
Jonathan will try to get the video out today despite issues with hotel Wi-Fi. He thanks viewers for watching and supporting the channel. More videos may come later today or tonight, but he will be traveling back from Blackburn.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
No major parts of the transcript were unclear. A few minor points:
The name of the Russian jamming station (R330Zh Zhitel) may not be fully accurate due to transcript errors
The exact location in Russia where the T-62M tanks were spotted on trains was not specified
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Steps:
Watch video and read through transcript
Identify main topics covered in video
Summarise each topic, keeping in mind:
Use British English spelling and grammar
Provide enough context for each topic
Use bullet points, numbered lists, bold, italics and underline for emphasis if needed
Merge topics if revisited later in the video
Include any sources/credits Jonathan mentions
Capture Jonathan's insights, analysis, philosophy and reasoning
Keep any mentions of tea/jokes/rants to convey Jonathan's personality
Be aware the transcript may contain errors
Add an introduction and wrap-up section
Select a key quote from the video
Structure using the provided XML tags
Note anything that was unclear from the transcript
