Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News
Table of Contents 📖
"If we just gave them an absolute tonne of missiles, rockets, guided bombs, airplanes, they could do most of the damage to the Russians from quite a distance."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:04⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the second part of his Ukraine War update for 23rd December 2023 and apologises that this video is a little bit later than usual.
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Update on Russian losses in Ilovaisk
🎦 00:04-01:09⏩
Jonathan refers to his previous video (part A) which focused on Ukrainian hits and Russian losses. He provides an update on a large strike that has taken place in Ilovaisk, a strategic rail hub east of Donetsk, impacting fuel carriers positioned on railway tracks. Numerous videos circulating online depict plumes of black smoke, suggesting the railway and fuel supplies have been targeted.
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Ukraine's use of ATACMs and Patriot systems
🎦 01:09-02:20⏩
Jonathan discusses the effectiveness of US-supplied ATACMs (Army Tactical Missile Systems) used by Ukraine, stating that in October they neutralized 11% of Russia's Ka-52 attack helicopters despite only receiving 28 units due to limited US inventory, according to Jürgen Nauditz. He highlights a recent success where Ukraine destroyed three Su-34 bombers using a Patriot system provided by Germany only two weeks prior. Jonathan emphasises the importance of Western allies supplying more weaponry to Ukraine, asserting that decisive military support will compel Putin to negotiate or face inevitable defeat. He argues that overwhelming military aid could have ended the war sooner and expresses frustration at the piecemeal approach taken by Ukraine's allies.
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Netherlands to send 18 F-16s to Ukraine
🎦 02:20-03:10⏩
Jonathan reports that the Netherlands has pledged to send 18 F-16 fighter jets to aid Ukraine in its fight against Russia, although the delivery timeframe remains unclear. An Estonian Ministry of Defence strategy document indicates a commitment from the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, and Belgium to provide F-16s by year-end, generating optimism about their potential deployment. This aligns with recent claims made by Rebar, suggesting that 12 F-16s and three training jets are already operational in Ukraine.
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Rebar's narrative and the need to protect F-16s
🎦 03:10-04:42⏩
Jonathan acknowledges that Rebar may be exaggerating the number of F-16s currently in Ukraine to advance a specific narrative. Regardless, he emphasizes the importance of safeguarding these valuable assets if they are indeed present. This includes utilizing robust air defense systems, hardened bunkers, and specialized hangars capable of withstanding Russian missile strikes.
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The impact of AIM-120D Amraam missiles
🎦 04:42-06:31⏩
Jonathan analyses the recent downing of three Russian Su-34s in a single day as evidence of Ukraine's growing air superiority. He predicts a bleak outlook for the Russian Air Force once US-supplied AIM-120D Amraam missiles are integrated into Ukraine's arsenal. With a range of 160 kilometers, these advanced air-to-air missiles, launched from platforms like F-16s, can engage targets beyond visual range, potentially rendering Russian air operations suicidal. Jonathan believes this development will significantly curtail Russia's ability to bomb Ukrainian frontlines from the south.
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Military aid updates from Australia, Germany and South Korea
🎦 06:31-08:11⏩
- Australia: Donating a Boeing E-7A Wedgetail long-range radar surveillance aircraft to bolster Ukraine's air defense capabilities.
- Germany: Providing additional support, including Leopard 2A6 ammunition, three Gepard anti-aircraft systems with ammunition, 2,500 1,555 mm rounds, two Vicent-1 mine-clearing tanks, 10 Vector drones, two unspecified vehicles, two AMPs, eight Zetros cargo trucks, six trucks and semi-trailers (potentially HX-81s), 40 mm ammunition, and medical equipment.
- South Korea: Supplying 10 demining vehicles and 100 pickup trucks to assist Ukraine's efforts, a move Jonathan views as significant, speculating that South Korea's increased involvement is driven by a desire to counter North Korean actions.
Rheinmetall establishes a military vehicle repair centre in Romania
🎦 08:11-08:45⏩
Jonathan highlights Rheinmetall, a prominent German military industrial company, establishing a dedicated repair center for military vehicles in Satu Mare, Romania, situated on the Ukrainian border. This strategic location allows for faster turnaround times compared to transporting damaged equipment to Poland, streamlining logistical challenges and enhancing Ukraine's operational efficiency, particularly near the Kherson front.
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Legal dispute over Leopard 1A5 tanks in Italy
🎦 08:45-09:59⏩
Jonathan delves into a complex legal battle involving Swiss defense company Ruag and German company Global Logistics Support (GLS) concerning 25 Leopard 1A5 tanks. Purchased by GLS in 2019 but never delivered, these tanks, currently held in an Italian warehouse, are at the center of a court order obtained by GLS, demanding their release. While a positive development for Ukraine if successful, Ruag maintains that the injunction is not yet legally enforceable. Jonathan highlights the potential value of Leopard 1 tanks for Ukraine, citing positive feedback on their performance with upgraded fire control systems, optics, and thermal imaging capabilities.
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Sadiq Khan's scrappage scheme and potential vehicle donations
🎦 09:59-12:26⏩
Jonathan addresses the controversy surrounding London Mayor Sadiq Khan's vehicle scrappage scheme. Initially refusing to donate scrapped vehicles to Ukraine, Khan cited environmental concerns and legal complications. However, following public pressure and interventions from Conservative MPs, including Michael Gove and Ben Wallace, Khan has agreed to explore amending the scheme to facilitate vehicle donations. This shift signifies a potential source of four-wheel drive vehicles and vans for Ukraine, contingent on government approval. Jonathan emphasizes the collaborative effort involved, with both Labour and Conservative figures playing a role in potentially securing these valuable resources for Ukraine.
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US approves $886.3 billion defence budget with aid for Ukraine
🎦 12:26-13:50⏩
Jonathan reports that President Biden has approved a record $886.3 billion US defence budget for 2024, which includes extensions to aid programmes for Ukraine. The budget extends the Ukrainian Security Assistance Initiative until the end of 2026 and allocates $300 million for military assistance to Ukraine in the current fiscal year, ending September 30, 2024. Jonathan notes that this amount is relatively small compared to previous aid packages, but still beneficial. The budget also includes funds for countering China in the Pacific region and providing military assistance to Taiwan.
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Erdogan links Sweden's NATO accession to the lifting of drone equipment embargo by Canada
🎦 13:50-14:35⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to geopolitical news, discussing Turkish President Erdogan's stance on Sweden's bid to join NATO. Erdogan is conditioning his support on Canada lifting an embargo on drone equipment used by his son-in-law's company, Baykar, the manufacturer of Bayraktar drones. Jonathan highlights Baykar's significant support for Ukraine, surpassing some countries' contributions, with over $110 million worth of equipment donated. He expresses hope that Canada will consider lifting the embargo, given Baykar's commitment to assisting Ukraine and the potential implications for Sweden's NATO membership.
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Switzerland joins new EU sanctions against Russia
🎦 14:35-14:46⏩
Jonathan welcomes Switzerland's decision to join a new round of EU sanctions imposed on Russia, further isolating the country and demonstrating international condemnation of its actions in Ukraine.
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Russia's empty threats and the seizure of Russian assets
🎦 14:46-17:36⏩
Jonathan analyses Russia's history of making empty threats, pointing out that despite warnings of "unprecedented consequences" if the West intervened in Ukraine, those consequences never materialized. He argues that Russia's recent threat of "serious consequences" if the West seizes its central bank assets should be seen in the same light, particularly since Russia did not react when faced with even more significant threats previously. Jonathan draws two key conclusions from this pattern:
- Russia is unlikely to take drastic action in response to proposals to utilize frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine.
- These threats reveal Russia's deep concern over the potential seizure and use of its frozen assets, making it a strategy the West should seriously consider.
Jonathan uses a lighthearted analogy involving a pink Care Bear toy to illustrate his point that Putin's threats are often more bluster than substance. He believes that Putin thrives on exploiting weakness and backs down when confronted with strength. Jonathan argues that the West should not be intimidated by empty threats and should take decisive action, including seizing frozen assets, to support Ukraine and deter further aggression.
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Praise for Emmanuel Macron's vocal support for Ukraine
🎦 17:36-19:50⏩
Jonathan acknowledges that France, under President Emmanuel Macron, has not always been as publicly supportive of Ukraine as some other nations. However, he believes that France has contributed more behind the scenes than is widely recognized and that Macron's recent public statements demonstrate a genuine commitment to Ukraine's cause. Jonathan contrasts Macron's vocal support with the relative silence of UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, expressing disappointment at the lack of clear messaging from the UK government on the importance of supporting Ukraine. He believes that public figures like Macron play a vital role in maintaining awareness and rallying support for Ukraine, particularly as the war enters its third year.
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Nikki Haley's position on Ukraine and the 2024 US presidential election
🎦 19:50-21:01⏩
Jonathan briefly touches upon the upcoming 2024 US presidential election, noting that former US President Donald Trump is facing mounting legal challenges that could impact his candidacy. He highlights Nikki Haley as a potential alternative, praising her strong stance on Ukraine and expressing a preference for her over Trump. Haley asserts the importance of providing Ukraine with the necessary equipment and ammunition to win the war, emphasizing the potential threat Russia poses to NATO countries if successful in Ukraine. She argues that supporting Ukraine now is crucial to preventing a larger conflict involving the United States in the future. Jonathan agrees with this assessment, stating that Russia's ambitions extend beyond Ukraine and pose a long-term threat to European security.
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Closure of the Russian Consulate in Leipzig
🎦 21:01-22:21⏩
Jonathan reports the permanent closure of the Russian general consulate in Leipzig, Germany, marking a symbolic decrease in Russian influence and a blow to its espionage network, which utilizes diplomatic cover. He notes that such closures are a positive development for Germany and Europe, further isolating Russia and reducing its capacity for intelligence gathering and subversive activities.
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Border crossing delays and Polish Foreign Minister's visit to Kyiv
🎦 22:21-23:10⏩
Jonathan highlights the logistical challenges at the Polish-Ukrainian border, where over 4,000 trucks are currently waiting to enter Ukraine, a number expected to rise during the holiday season. He then mentions the recent visit of Poland's newly appointed Foreign Minister, Radosław Sikorski, to Kyiv, emphasizing the importance of addressing these border issues and strengthening cooperation between the two nations.
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The importance of supporting Ukraine
🎦 23:10-24:20⏩
Jonathan quotes Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, who stated during his visit that "the time of European empires is in the past," labelling the conflict in Ukraine as "the last colonial war in Europe." Sikorski emphasized Poland's unwavering support for Ukraine, stating that the only acceptable outcome is a Russian defeat and a Ukrainian victory. Jonathan commends the strong rhetoric from Poland and other nations that continue to underscore the importance of supporting Ukraine. He reiterates his belief that Ukraine can win the war, particularly with increased military assistance from the West. Jonathan passionately advocates for providing Ukraine with the necessary weapons, including missiles, rockets, guided bombs, and airplanes, to effectively target Russian positions from a distance and minimize Ukrainian casualties. He urges Western nations to abandon their hesitant approach and provide Ukraine with overwhelming military support to swiftly end the conflict.
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Wrap up
🎦 24:20-24:53⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by thanking viewers and mentioning his plans for a live mapping update later in the day with James, potentially featuring a guest from the Slovenian Armed Forces. He acknowledges time constraints but expresses hope for a successful live stream.
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