Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Russia will continue destroying hospitals and targeting healthcare workers because they do not want Ukrainians to receive medical care: basic genocide maths - create as many injuries or illnesses as possible and remove the means to treat them."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:18⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the channel - this is part 1 of the Ukraine War Update for the 7th January 2024. He's starting early today as he has to take his son to rugby training. He jokes that he's had a bad night's sleep because his partner bought him a Ring doorbell for Christmas and didn't change the motion settings, so was woken up numerous times by wildlife.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report Russian Losses
🎦 00:49-03:27⏩
The Ukrainian General Staff has reported high Russian losses for the previous day: 860 personnel, 4 tanks, 22 APVs, 36 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 4 anti-aircraft systems, 24 drones, 45 vehicles and fuel tanks and 10 pieces of special equipment. Jonathan notes that 860 personnel losses is now considered average whereas a year ago it would have been an extremely high figure. The number of artillery systems and anti-aircraft systems lost by the Russians are particularly high. Jonathan reminds viewers that the figures represent human beings, and to check the caveats in the description which apply to the figures.
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Andrew Perpetua's Assessment of Russian Losses
🎦 03:28-06:40⏩
Jonathan compares the General Staff figures with independent military analyst Andrew Perpetua's daily assessment which is based on open source visual confirmation. The ratio of Russian to Ukrainian losses heavily favours the Ukrainians (around 6:1) which is what they would want to see on a daily basis. He notes that Perpetua's list shows 2 Pantsir-S1 systems damaged, an electronic warfare system, surveillance and comms equipment, artillery and tanks. Jonathan observes that there are far fewer artillery pieces listed than in the General Staff report and questions why. Jonathan reiterates his previous point that the figures are skewed towards drones as these losses are more likely to be filmed and shared on social media, whereas the destruction of artillery is less likely to be recorded and shared. He reminds viewers that drone losses are believed to make up around 40% of equipment losses, so 60% of figures are not represented in this list.
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Russians Building New Railway Near Mariupol
🎦 06:40-08:55⏩
Adviser to the Mayor of Mariupol Petro Andryushchenko has announced that the Ukrainians have destroyed a half-built railway bridge near Mariupol, as well as damaging fuel tanks and engineering vehicles. Jonathan isn't sure whether to categorise this as a distance strike (due to the location) or partisan activity and speculates that the damaged fuel tanks and engineering vehicles may be included in Perpetua's list. He explains that the Russians started work on the new railway line a couple of months ago to reduce their reliance on the Kerch Strait Bridge. The existing railway line running north of Mariupol is too close to the front line, so a new railway further back from the front line was deemed a logistical necessity. Jonathan explains that the Ukrainians will prioritise attacking bridges rather than railway lines and roads as these can easily be repaired, whereas bridges take far longer to rebuild.
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Overnight Drone and Missile Attacks
🎦 08:55-13:26⏩
Ukraine was attacked overnight with Iranian-supplied Shahed drones. Of the 28 drones launched at Ukraine, 21 were shot down, giving an interception rate of 75%. Jonathan believes that the low interception rate (it has been 100% in the past) could be because the Russians are targeting areas where they know Ukrainian air defences are weaker, having spent considerable time probing for weaknesses. He notes that if they were to target a city like Kyiv, which is heavily defended, the interception rate would be far higher. A number of the drones targeted Dnipro city and Dnipropetrovsk. Jonathan recommends viewers check out Tim White's twitter thread from last night which covers the attacks in some detail. Eleven people, including 5 children, were killed in an attack on the Donestk town of Prokrovsk after becoming trapped under rubble.
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Ukrainians Destroy Two Russian Pantsir-S1 Systems
🎦 10:26-11:04⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR) has published footage of damage to two Russian Pantsir-S1 systems which have been put out of action in the Belgorod region. These are the two systems that were mentioned in Perpetua's list and cost in excess of $10m each. Jonathan explains that the systems were deployed to Belgorod to prevent Ukrainian air assaults.
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Further Attacks on Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk
🎦 11:07-11:28⏩
Jonathan reports further explosions in Dnipro as a result of the Shahed drone attacks, and an explosion in Zaporizhzhia, but is hopeful that Ukrainian air defences were operational. He also notes that there are reports of damage in Donetsk, probably as a result of shelling.
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Russians Launch Ballistic Missiles
🎦 11:29-12:05⏩
Jonathan explains that in addition to the Shahed drones, Russia also launched 3 S-300 ballistic missiles because the Ukrainians have a very low interception rate for these weapons systems - around 3%, so for every 100 missiles launched, 97 hit their targets. The downside is that when the S-300s are used in ground to ground mode, they are not particularly accurate. Jonathan states that this in itself could be perceived as a form of collateral damage.
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Residential Building in Dnipro Hit, No Casualties
🎦 12:05-12:25⏩
Jonathan reports that a residential building in Dnipro was hit, but remarkably there were no injuries. Emergency services rescued 6 people, including two children, from the building.
Seven Drones Shot Down Over Dnipropetrovsk
🎦 12:25-12:30⏩
Jonathan reports that at least 7 drones were shot down over Dnipropetrovsk.
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Air Raid Alerts in Vinnytsia and Khmelnytskyi
🎦 12:30-12:44⏩
Jonathan reports that air raid alerts sounded in Vinnytsia and Khmelnytskyi. He explains that the Starokostyantynuv Air Base is located in Khmelnytskyi and is routinely targeted by the Russians as bombers carrying cruise missiles take off from there.
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Casualties in Donetsk
🎦 12:44-13:15⏩
Jonathan clarifies that in addition to the casualties in Prokrovsk, a child's body has been recovered from rubble in the village of Rivne in Pokrovsk district, Donetsk. Rescue workers are searching for 5 more people, two of them children.
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Nikopol Shelled
🎦 13:15-13:46⏩
Jonathan reports that Nikopol has been shelled, injuring 12 people. An education establishment, residential and administrative buildings were damaged.
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Russians Holding Kalibr Missiles in Reserve
🎦 13:46-14:31⏩
Quoting Nataliya Humeniuk (spokesperson for Operational Command South), Jonathan states that the Russians are holding 40 Kalibr cruise missiles in reserve. He believes that the reason they have not been using them as frequently in recent attacks is because they are too easy to intercept, and also speculates that there may be logistical issues with loading the missiles onto ships in the Black Sea.
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Analysis of Ukrainian Attacks on Crimea (4th and 5th January 2024)
🎦 14:37-19:46⏩
Jonathan reads through two analyses of the Ukrainian strikes on Crimea which took place on 4th and 5th January 2024. The first analysis is from a source that regularly posts insider information about the Russian military. According to this source:
- Ukraine carried out a large-scale attack on Crimea, destroying a radar and communication centre belonging to the 31st Air Defence Division, injuring 3 conscripts. The attack was carried out using a Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missile.
- A command post of the 31st Air Defence Division in Sevastopol was hit, killing 12 servicemen, injuring 9 and trapping more than 80 under rubble. One of those killed is believed to be a General, although his name was not provided. Rumours have been circulating about the death of General Gerasimov (Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation), although Jonathan believes that this is just a rumour and is highly unlikely to be true.
- The commander of the 3rd Radio Technical Regiment of the Russian Aerospace Forces has been confirmed as one of the fatalities. Two Storm Shadow missiles were used in this attack.
- The Ukrainians used decoy missiles (likely ADM-160A MALDs) in this attack. These were followed by Storm Shadow missiles.
- 35 attack drones were used to attack Pervomayskyi and Saky districts. Jonathan notes that the Russian air defences and electronic warfare were largely successful in preventing the drones hitting their targets.
- The command post of the 43rd Separate Naval Assault Aviation Regiment was hit, killing 4 soldiers. Four Storm Shadow missiles were used, two of which were allegedly intercepted by air defences. If true, this is significant as no interceptions of Storm Shadow missiles have been documented during the war.
- Ukraine's first documented use of the ADM-160A MALD decoy missiles was in May, and there have been several documented uses since then.
The second analysis is from OSINTtechnical and concerns the destruction of the Russian command post at Yevpatoria in occupied Crimea, which they claim was a major blow for Russian air defences on the peninsular. Following the successful operation to force the Black Sea fleet to relocate from Sevastopol, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are now focusing on destroying Russia's air defence capabilities. The entire command of the 2nd Regiment of the 31st Air Defence Division is believed to have been terminated in the strike on the Yevpatoria command post.
- The 31st Air Defence Division is responsible for the S-400s in Crimea and has its HQ in Sevastopol. It forms part of the 4th Air and Air Defence Forces Army (HQ in Rostov-on-Don).
- There are two anti-aircraft missile regiments - the 12th (HQ in Sevastopol) and 18th (HQ in Feodosia, another place routinely targeted by the Ukrainians). Both of these regiments are equipped with S-400s. Jonathan observes that all of these locations are being systematically targeted by the Ukrainians.
- Nataliya Humeniuk was quoted as saying that the air defence system is in emergency reformatting mode. Russian air defences are in chaos and units are being replaced.
- Jonathan believes that if the Ukrainians had more missiles at their disposal they would be striking more frequently, and that the lack of attacks suggests they have limited stockpiles and are using the munitions at the rate at which they are being produced. The cruise missiles are different - Jonathan believes that they only have a very limited number left and are waiting for an opportunity to deploy them to maximum effect. This is speculation on his part and he advises viewers to take it with a pinch of salt.
Hospital Hit by Russian Missile
🎦 23:16-24:19⏩
Jonathan talks about a video circulating on social media which appears to show a missile striking a hospital in Ukraine. Although he cannot verify when or where the video was filmed, it is clearly genuine. Jonathan is angered by the attack and the fact that Russia continues to target hospitals and healthcare workers as a tactic to demoralise Ukrainians. He sees this as genocide.
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Scott Ritter Travels to Chechnya, Gives Speech to Soldiers
🎦 24:19-27:44⏩
Jonathan talks about the controversial former US Marine Corp intelligence officer Scott Ritter, who at the start of the war was often cited as someone who was telling the truth about the war. Jonathan is pleased that he doesn't hear this so much anymore as it has become increasingly obvious that Ritter is a paid-up Russian mouthpiece. If there was any doubt, then recent events confirm it. Ramzan Kadyrov (Head of the Chechen Republic) recently stated that he had given Ritter a list of demands to deliver to the Americans - the lifting of sanctions against him and his family in return for the release of Ukrainian prisoners. Ritter is currently in Chechnya and has given a speech to Chechen soldiers in which he stated they would win the war and that he wanted to work towards a friendship between the US and Russia. Even New World Geopolitics, a YouTube channel which often shares pro-Kremlin propaganda, described Ritter's actions as traitorous.
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Metinvest Delivers Bomb Shelters
🎦 27:44-28:19⏩
Jonathan reports that Metinvest, the Ukrainian steel and mining company has delivered more than 200 underground steel shelters. These are designed to be used in trench systems, acting as bomb shelters and dormitories.
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Putin Signs Decree Simplifying Abduction of Ukrainian Children
🎦 28:19-29:54⏩
Jonathan reports that Putin has signed a decree making it easier for Russia to abduct children from occupied Ukraine. Jonathan states that Putin should be up in front of the International Criminal Court (ICC) for war crimes. The new decree makes it possible for Russian organisations to apply for Russian citizenship on behalf of Ukrainian orphans or children who have been separated from their parents. This is a breach of the Fourth Geneva Convention which prohibits an occupying power from changing the nationality or civil status of a child, and also forbids the forcible transfer of protected persons from occupied territory to the territory of an occupying power. This means that Belarus is also complicit. Jonathan calls on other nations to do something to stop these atrocities from happening by giving Ukraine what it needs to defend itself.
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Rant - Could Ukraine Defeat Russia?
🎦 29:54-32:07⏩
Jonathan vents his frustration at a comment he received in response to a point he made in his live stream yesterday in which he argued that Ukraine could easily defeat Russia with the right equipment. The commenter, Mike Willis, disagreed, describing Jonathan's statement as "stupid". Jonathan disagrees and uses the philosophical argument _reductio ad absurdum_ to illustrate his point. If the West gave Ukraine a massive amount of military aid (for example 10,000 cruise missiles, 50,000 HIMARS missiles, 300 F-16s, etc) they would easily defeat the Russians. The fact that they are not being given this level of support suggests that the West does not want Ukraine to win quickly or easily.
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Wrap Up
🎦 32:59-33:23⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and says he is off to take his son to rugby training. He hopes to record an interview later today with the TOCHNY Podcast (Germany from Ukraine).
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