Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"The longer this war goes on, actually, the more accurate I think these figures are. And I know I bring in the caveats, but I think the troops is far more difficult to calculate but when it comes to some of the material that's lost I think I think they they are counting up fairly um fairly accurately"
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides a Ukraine war news update for Sunday morning, 12th February 2023. He mentions having to take his son to rugby but he wimped out saying he has a cold. Jonathan jokingly says he's locked him in a cage as a result (but not really!).
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- Ukraine released official figures for Russian losses: 900 liquidated personnel yesterday, hanging around the 1,000 mark daily. Huge losses of equipment too - 13 tanks, 14 APCs, 17 artillery systems, 2 MLRS, 1 aircraft, 10 drones, 14 vehicles, 1 piece of special equipment.
- UK intelligence says in the past 2 weeks Russia has likely suffered its highest casualty rate since the first week of the invasion. The mean average for the last 7 days was 824 casualties per day, over 4 times the rate reported in June-July 2022.
- Ukraine also continues to suffer a high attrition rate. The uptick in Russian casualties is likely due to lack of trained personnel, coordination and resources across the front, exemplified in Vuklidar and Bakhmut.
- Jonathan provides video evidence of Russian tanks and APCs being taken out by Ukrainian mines. When you see this footage literally every day across the front lines and they're losing this many pieces of equipment, it raises questions about their ability to mount coming offensives.
Mines
- Jonathan has been talking about the importance of mines the last couple days. As Russia goes on the offensive through Ukrainian mined territory, their vehicles are being taken out in large numbers.
- American RAM shells fired from HIMARS and German SMArt fired from MARS II can lay minefields remotely. One volley could lay 280 mines, allowing Ukraine to effectively set up ambushes.
- Video footage shows Russian tanks and APCs being taken out by mines, with soldiers making poor decisions to keep driving through minefields even after vehicles ahead of them are destroyed.
UK Plans for Manufacturing Arms in Ukraine
- Senior UK defence industry officials are discussing plans with counterparts in Kyiv to manufacture weapons and military vehicles in Ukraine under license.
- Other European defence companies are also in talks and British companies are keen not to be beaten by French and German rivals. This is free market economics with corporations racing for competitive advantage.
- While helping Ukraine, it's interesting to see the integration of the private and public sector in this war in a way only partially seen in previous wars.
Jets, Tanks and Ammunition for Ukraine
- In an interview, Polish President Andrzej Duda cast doubt on whether Poland would be able to supply Ukraine with fighter jets.
- Ukrainian soldiers training on Leopard tanks should return to the front lines together with the tanks by the end of March according to Der Spiegel.
- A Ukrainian official emphasized that ammunition and artillery are of "ultimate urgency", not just tanks and planes. Ammunition is being expended on a huge scale daily.
Russian Offensive Plans
- Russians are reportedly preparing for a big offensive to retake territory they lost in the Kharkiv region, moving lots of artillery to the Kupyansk area.
- However, the Euromaidan press reports Russia may lack resources to mount a truly massive offensive in coming weeks. Their main goal remains achieving at least some tactical success in eastern Ukraine.
- There seems to be a narrative shift from warning of a huge Russian offensive to a smaller one aimed at more limited tactical gains. Daily equipment losses call into question Russia's offensive capabilities.
Other News
- US and Ukrainian defence ministers discussed artillery and air defence supplies ahead of the next Ukraine Defence Contact Group meeting.
- President Zelenskyy dismissed a National Guard deputy commander reportedly in charge of military logistics, possibly due to corruption.
- A Ukrainian spokesperson said a new massive Russian missile strike is unlikely soon, but more targeted point strikes may occur. Two Russian boats preparing to maneuver sabotage/recon groups were hit by Ukraine in the Dnipro delta.
Wrap up
Jonathan wraps up today's news update and says he will now get on with the front line update. He thanks viewers for their support and asks them to like, subscribe, share and check out ways to support the channel in the video description. He signs off saying "take care, speak soon".
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
No major parts of the transcript were unclear to me. A few very minor things:
I wasn't sure about the spelling of a couple place names like Vuklidar/Vukhodar
The name "Biana Golodryga" was mentioned but I didn't have context on who this is
But overall the transcript was quite clear and I was able to understand the key points Jonathan made.
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Steps:
Read through transcript and identify main topics/sections
Summarize each topic, keeping key details and Jonathan's analysis/opinions
Use British English spelling and grammar
Format using XML tags as specified
Include an introduction and wrap-up section
Select a key quote that captures the essence of the video
Review summary to ensure all key points are covered and transcript is accurately reflected
