Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News

"The time limit for counter-battery fire at the front is currently between three and four minutes. Have you seen how fast the Caesar is? This allows you to fire before the shells have even reached the ground they have already left their position"

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:52⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video, a Ukraine war news update. He mentions his previous video discussing the contentious issue of whether Ukraine should be permitted to use allied-supplied weapons within Russia. He highlights the significance of this debate happening behind the scenes and stresses the importance of a resolution for Ukraine to effectively defend itself.

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USA to provide $2bn Military Aid Package

🎦 00:52-01:18⏩

Jonathan discusses potential new US military aid package for Ukraine. Two unnamed US officials confirmed to Politico that a new package could be announced later this week. The package, potentially worth $2 billion, would be substantial. Jonathan expresses hope that this package will also come with the acceptance that Ukraine can use the provided weapons within Russia.

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USA provides Generators to Kharkiv

🎦 01:18-02:26⏩

The United States, through USAID, has supplied 107 generators to five communities in the Kharkiv region to help ensure the continued operation of hospitals and schools, particularly during power outages. This aid comes as Russia continues its attacks on the Kharkiv region and targets Ukrainian energy infrastructure, leading to frequent and organised blackouts. These blackouts, occurring as early as 6pm in some areas, like Odesa, pose a significant challenge to Ukraine's administration, economy, and already fragile state.

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Spain to send Leopard Tanks in June

🎦 02:26-03:06⏩

As the latest Ramstein meeting commenced via video conference, Spain wasted no time in confirming that the latest batch of Leopard tanks would reach Ukraine by June. This contribution from Spain was acknowledged by Ukraine's Defence Minister, Oleksii Reznikov, who expressed gratitude for their support in also training Ukrainian soldiers. Jonathan provides a detailed breakdown of the military package, encompassing 155mm artillery ammunition, Patriot anti-aircraft missiles, anti-drone systems, optronic surveillance and tracking systems, and turrets, including remote-controlled weapon systems (RCWS).

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Netherlands to send YPR-765s with Remote Controlled Turrets

🎦 03:19-04:13⏩

Jonathan discusses the increasing use of Remote Controlled Weapon Systems (RCWS) in the conflict. He notes the Netherlands' provision of YPR-765s, upgraded M113 APCs equipped with remote-controlled turrets, to the Ukrainian armed forces. This follows previous deliveries of approximately 200 YPR-765s to Ukraine. Jonathan highlights the significance of RCWS, citing their use on drones and in defending trenches, such as in Avdiivka. He also mentions the effectiveness of remote-controlled machine-gun turrets in repelling Russian advances.

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Czech Republic provides F-16 Simulator

🎦 04:52-05:23⏩

Jonathan discusses the Czech Republic's provision of an F-16 aviation simulator to Ukraine, enabling Ukrainian pilots to practice combat missions. He expresses optimism about the potential impact of F-16s on the battlefield but cautions against excessive expectations, hoping they won't be easily shot down. He commends Ukraine's efforts in targeting Russian air defences to prepare for the arrival of these fighter aircraft.

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France orders Aster Missiles, Germany to use Russian assets for Ukraine Aid

🎦 05:23-07:10⏩

Jonathan reports that the French Ministry of Armed Forces has placed an order for 400 Aster missiles, costing €2 billion, intended for both France and Ukraine. The initial delivery of 200 missiles, originally slated for late 2025, has been expedited to 2024. Jonathan explains that these missiles are for the SAMP/T air defence system (Mamba), equivalent to the US Patriot system, of which Ukraine currently possesses at least one, potentially two. In other news, German officials have expressed their willingness to support a US plan to utilise the future revenue generated from frozen Russian assets, mostly held in Europe, to bolster aid for Ukraine. This initiative aims to secure $50 billion in aid. While no final agreement is expected until the G7 leaders' meeting from June 13th to 15th, with implementation likely next year, this represents a positive step towards ensuring sustained support for Ukraine. Germany's willingness to back this US-driven plan is seen as a major development.

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German Air Defence Initiative

🎦 07:10-09:44⏩

Jonathan discusses a German-led initiative to strengthen Ukraine's air defenses. The initiative has garnered nearly €1 billion. Led by German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, a staunch supporter of Ukraine, the initiative aims to provide ongoing support to Ukraine. Several countries have pledged military and financial support, including Belgium, Denmark, Canada, Norway, France, Great Britain, Romania, Spain and the USA. Latvia is also planning to join the initiative. Germany is contributing a further Patriot battery, and Lithuania is supplying six NASAMS systems and an 1800 air defence and surveillance radar (SOARS). Jonathan speculates about the specific equipment being provided by the participating nations, particularly highlighting the need for Patriot missiles and batteries. He expresses uncertainty about Romania's potential contribution of a Patriot battery, given previous skepticism from Romanian officials.

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France Trains Ukrainian Gunners on CAESAR Howitzers

🎦 09:48-12:50⏩

Jonathan discusses France's training of Ukrainian artillerymen. 45 Ukrainian gunners have completed training in France on using the CAESAR self-propelled howitzer. As part of the artillery coalition, France has delivered six CAESARs to Ukraine since January 2023. The French army has implemented an expedited 15-day training program, focusing on crucial skills such as counter-battery fire techniques, with a time limit of three to four minutes at the front. The effectiveness of the CAESAR in allowing rapid deployment and firing before enemy shells land is highlighted. General Jean-Michel Guillotin, head of the artillery coalition for Ukraine, praises the Ukrainian army's experience and combat readiness, acknowledging their ability to adapt to shorter training periods. The program leverages the existing experience of Ukrainian soldiers, many of whom have prior experience with other artillery systems, such as HIMARS. The expedited training highlights the urgency of the situation and the need to rapidly equip Ukrainian forces.

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Increased CAESAR Production

🎦 12:50-13:26⏩

Jonathan shifts the focus to the increased production of CAESAR howitzers to address the operational needs of Ukraine and NATO's European allies. While acknowledging that the Swedish Archer is technically superior, he notes that the CAESAR's relative simplicity in operation and maintenance makes it a more practical choice. The CAESAR is seen as a symbol of France's commitment to aiding Ukraine and fostering closer ties with the Baltic countries. Jonathan highlights that out of the 45 Ukrainian gunners trained, 17 have already used the CAESAR in combat, while others have gained valuable artillery experience on different systems.

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Netherlands train Ukrainian F-16 Maintenance Crew

🎦 13:26-14:12⏩

Jonathan moves on to report that 10 Ukrainian military personnel have completed training in the Netherlands on the maintenance of F-16 fighter aircraft. This training is crucial for Ukraine to maintain the at least 24 F-16s pledged by the Netherlands. Jonathan emphasises the vital role of ground crews and mechanics, stressing their equal importance to pilots in ensuring operational F-16s. He expresses hope for more personnel to receive this training moving forward.

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Russian Mobilisation and Potential for Expansion of the Conflict

🎦 14:12-17:50⏩

Jonathan transitions to discussing Russia's mobilisation efforts. He highlights an incident where a masked Russian veteran encouraged schoolchildren to prioritise going to war over higher education, indicating Russia's preparations for a larger conflict extending beyond Ukraine. He expresses concern about the indoctrination of children and the spread of propaganda. Jonathan cites a statement by Russian deputy Sobolev suggesting that a formal declaration of war would lead to full mobilisation, including fathers with three or more children, and recent Russian citizens from Central Asia. This implies a potential escalation in the conflict and a further expansion of mobilisation efforts. Jonathan analyses Russia's precarious position, stating that their chances of success beyond holding their current positions are slim unless they opt for a mass mobilisation. He argues that even with mass mobilisation, achieving any significant territorial gains would come at a devastating cost for Russia. He concludes that Russia's options are limited, and a negotiated settlement based on current territorial holdings might be the most realistic outcome.

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Wrap up

🎦 17:50-17:58⏩

Jonathan thanks his viewers for watching and says goodbye.

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