Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News
Table of Contents 📖
“The American people do not support [the war in Ukraine]. It's a losing war.”
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:09⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATPG video: a Ukraine War News Update, the second part for January 15th, 2024. This update will focus on military equipment and aid provided to both sides, Ukraine and Russia.
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UK Aid to Ukraine in Context
🎦 00:09-07:20⏩
Jonathan revisits the recent UK aid announcement, initially excited about the £2.5 billion commitment but later questioning its significance compared to other nations' contributions. He references a Spectator article by Philip O'Brien that criticizes the UK's generosity, stating they are "one of the least generous supporters of Ukraine in all of Europe." Key points from the article:
- UK aid to Ukraine totals 0.45% of GDP, with only Ireland and Switzerland giving less.
- Baltic, Nordic, and Central Eastern European states have contributed three to four times more relative to their GDP.
- Germany is doubling its military aid this year, dwarfing the UK's offer.
- Defence Secretary Grant Shapps deflects criticism of the UK's financial contributions, stating aid is "not just about the money."
Jonathan acknowledges the UK's commendable support in providing certain equipment, such as Storm Shadow missiles and Challenger 2 tanks, but emphasizes the need for a balanced perspective and increased financial assistance. He questions the UK's ability to criticize US aid disbursement when their own contribution lags behind many European neighbors.
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Ukraine Considers Mirage 2000D Alongside F-16s
🎦 07:20-12:01⏩
Jonathan discusses Ukraine's interest in acquiring additional aircraft. While F-16 deliveries remain a priority, Ukraine is also considering Mirage 2000D fighter jets. He highlights comments from the Commander of the Ukrainian Air Force:
- Ukraine is gradually replacing Soviet-era aircraft with Western equipment.
- While F-16s are the current focus, experts are exploring other options for bolstering their air force in the long term.
- They do not rule out any assistance from partners for multi-purpose aircraft, attack aircraft, and helicopters.
Jonathan analyzes the potential timeframe for integrating these aircraft, suggesting Mirage 2000Ds might come after F-16s due to pilot training requirements. He notes the recent visit of the French Foreign Minister to Kyiv and speculates about France's potential influence in promoting their own equipment.
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Germany: Spare Parts for Gepard SPAAGs and Australian Taipan Controversy
🎦 12:01-15:23⏩
This segment covers German aid and a controversy surrounding Australian military equipment.
- Germany:
- Markus Faber, a member of the Bundestag Defence Committee, advocates for a more efficient supply of spare parts for Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns (SPAAGs) sent to Ukraine.
- He stresses the need for political prioritization of spare parts delivery.
- Australia:
- Retired Australian General Mick Ryan criticizes the Australian government's decision to decommission and potentially scrap Taipan helicopters instead of providing them to Ukraine.
- He argues that Ukraine has successfully integrated complex military equipment like M1 Abrams tanks, Leopard 2 tanks, HIMARS, and Patriot systems, demonstrating their ability to operate Taipans.
- Ryan calls the decision "scandalous" and "immoral," emphasizing the potential life-saving impact Taipans could have in transporting battlefield casualties.
Analysis of Russia's Missile Capabilities and Supply
🎦 15:23-23:24⏩
Jonathan examines a Financial Times article discussing the challenges faced by Ukraine's air defense systems due to Russia's increasing use of missiles from Iran and North Korea. He delves into:
- Ukraine's "Frankenstein" air defense network, a combination of legacy Soviet systems and Western interceptors, is struggling to cope with the influx of diverse missile threats.
- The layered defense approach, starting with mobile units equipped with Stinger missiles and Gepards, is proving less effective due to deep snow hindering maneuverability.
- This forces Ukraine to rely more on expensive medium-range systems like IRIS-T and SAMP/T to intercept missiles and drones.
- The article highlights the difficulty of intercepting ballistic missiles, which Ukraine currently relies on limited Patriot systems to counter.
- Russia's alleged acquisition of North Korean KN-23 ballistic missiles raises concerns about the shifting balance of supplies.
- Experts believe North Korea could provide up to 100 KN-23s to Russia in exchange for much-needed cash.
- Russia is also reportedly in talks with Iran to procure close-range ballistic missiles.
- While Russia has ramped up domestic production of long-range missiles and attack drones, it likely still relies on Iranian and North Korean supplies to maintain its offensive capabilities.
Poland's Military Production Increase & Geopolitical Developments
🎦 23:24-26:01⏩
This section covers increased military production in Poland and several geopolitical events.
- Poland:
- Polish factories are ramping up military production, potentially driven by the ongoing war in Ukraine.
- Luznik factory aims to produce 100,000 rifles annually.
- Huta Stalowa Wola, an armored vehicle plant, is tasked with doubling deliveries within two years.
- Geopolitical News:
- Zelensky's visit to Switzerland: Aims to discuss the release of Leopard 1 tanks and Gepard ammunition currently held back by Switzerland's neutrality.
- Ukraine Peace Formula Meeting at Davos: Attended by 80 countries, with calls for China to play a more active role in peace negotiations.
- China's increased exports to Russia: Both direct and indirect exports via Central Asia have risen sharply since the invasion, raising concerns about China's role in supporting Russia's war effort.
- Romanian farmer protests: Farmers resume blockades at the Ukrainian border, impacting trade and logistics. Similar blockades continue at the Polish-Ukrainian border.
Impact of Sanctions on Russian Oil Production
🎦 26:01-27:01⏩
Jonathan reports on the impact of sanctions on Russia's oil production:
- Lukoil's Nizhny Novgorod oil refinery, Russia's largest, has halved production of high-octane gasoline due to breakdowns in Western-made compressors.
- This highlights the long-term consequences of sanctions, as Russia struggles to maintain critical infrastructure without access to Western technology and expertise.
Russian Propagandists Exploit Global Events & US Political Landscape
🎦 27:01-39:30⏩
This segment delves into how Russian propagandists are capitalizing on global events, particularly the conflict in Yemen, to further their agenda. Jonathan expresses concern over the amplification of these narratives by individuals like Jake Shields, Dr. Anastasia Maria, and Jackson Hinkle, labeling them as "pro-Russian trolls." Key points:
- Russian state TV celebrates instability in Yemen, drawing parallels to the Israel-Palestine conflict, and using it as a distraction from the war in Ukraine.
- Propagandists, including State Duma member Zharaviov, claim Poland is realizing it's "next" in line for Russian aggression.
- Jonathan criticizes those expressing support for Yemen without acknowledging the complexities of the situation or their history of pro-Russian stance.
- The potential return of Donald Trump in 2024 is highlighted as a point of concern, with Russian propagandists openly discussing the possibility of securing favorable territorial concessions from a Trump administration.
- A concerning anecdote reveals an individual expressing a preference for a Trump dictatorship over a Biden presidency, highlighting the worrying undercurrents within US politics.
- Marjorie Taylor Greene's (MTG) increasingly aggressive rhetoric and threats towards House Speaker Mike Johnson over potential aid to Ukraine.
- MTG's opposition to further aid to Ukraine, claiming it's a "losing war" that the American people don't support.
- The impact of MTG's threats on Johnson's ability to negotiate and compromise with Democrats on crucial issues, including government funding and border security.
- Jonathan criticizes MTG's stance, arguing that she holds disproportionate power despite not being in the majority and that her actions directly harm US interests.
Wrap up
🎦 39:30-39:39⏩
Jonathan concludes the video, expressing his dismay at the current political climate, particularly in the US. He urges viewers to consider the information presented and form their own conclusions. As always, he encourages viewers to like, subscribe, and share the video.
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