Ukraine War Update NEWS: Geopolitical News

"The contrast between Trump and Harris on Ukraine and Poland could not be starker. A Trump administration would continue favouring Russia and Ukraine over Ukraine and fail to hold Russia accountable for the devastation it inflicts on innocent civilians. Meanwhile, Harris will maintain her support for Ukraine's courageous fight to preserve its sovereignty and democracy, advocating for just reparations once Russia's illegal aggression ceases. She will also ensure that the U.S. remains a steadfast ally and protector of Poland."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:10⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to the second part of his Ukraine War Update for 03/10/2024

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Javier Milei (Argentina) criticises the UN

🎦 00:10-02:27⏩

Jonathan discusses the speech made by Javier Milei (leader of Argentina) at the UN General Assembly where he criticises the UN for being powerless to provide solutions to the war in Ukraine. Jonathan agrees that the UN Security Council is fundamentally flawed.

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New NATO leader comments

🎦 02:27-03:21⏩

Jonathan talks about comments made by the new NATO leader (Mark Rutte) who said that Ukraine is at the top of the list for NATO but that collective defence and partnerships also need to be built upon - in particular the Far East. Jonathan feels that these are all connected with the war in Ukraine and the Russia, Iran, China, North Korea axis.

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France reaffirms support for Ukraine

🎦 03:21-03:47⏩

Jonathan reports that France's new Prime Minister (Michel Barnier) has pledged to continue supporting Ukraine.

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Scholz (Germany) and Putin (Russia) planned phone call

🎦 03:47-07:29⏩

Jonathan talks about the planned phone call between Olaf Scholz (Germany) and Vladimir Putin (Russia) which has been cancelled. TASS (Russian state media) have said there are no common topics to discuss. Jonathan is sceptical that there will be any peace initiative that will work as Putin has no intention of negotiating. Jonathan also expresses doubt about Russia's initial objectives (special military operation) in Ukraine given how the war has progressed. Jonathan also voices his uncertainty about Putin's intentions with regards to Ukraine's territory and whether Crimea is non-negotiable.

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Georgian elections and LGBT+ ruling

🎦 07:29-09:21⏩

Jonathan reports that the Georgian Dream Party (in power) are facing challenges from a coalition for change. Jonathan notes that the Georgian Dream Party have tried to pass an anti LGBT+ ruling. The president (a woman) who is pro-EU vetoed this but Jonathan explains that when this happened with the Foreign Agents law, the president's veto was eventually overruled. Jonathan talks about the upcoming elections in Georgia and wonders whether the protests against the Foreign Agents Law will translate into votes for the opposition. He also wonders whether the elections will be free and fair.

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Russian Propaganda and the invasion of Ukraine

🎦 09:21-10:41⏩

Jonathan talks about the importance of listening to Russian Propagandists as it gives an insight into their thinking. He cites an example (from Julia Davis) of a Russian State Duma Member who claimed Russia had to invade Ukraine to stop them conquering Russian regions. He argues that NATO is a post-hoc rationalisation and says that the invasion is genocidal. He goes on to say we are being duped if we think NATO is the reason for the invasion, using the 2014 invasion as evidence.

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Russia and Pakistan resort to bartering

🎦 10:41-12:05⏩

Jonathan reports that Russia has resorted to bartering with Pakistan for chickpeas, lentils, rice and tangerines as a result of payment difficulties (as a result of sanctions).

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UK sanctions against Belarus

🎦 12:05-12:11⏩

Jonathan reports that the UK are imposing sanctions against Belarusian bank Alfa bank.

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PepsiCo continue to operate in Russia

🎦 12:11-12:56⏩

Jonathan reports that PepsiCo continue to operate in Russia and in 2023 generated $4.2bn in revenue in Russia and paid $135m in profit taxes - this is money that is going towards Russia's war efforts. He calls for a boycott and says he will be contacting them to complain.

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Sweden praised for stance on trade with Russia

🎦 12:56-13:40⏩

Jonathan (citing a graph from Robin Brooks) praises Sweden for not increasing trade with Russia (in particular, not transshipping via central Asia). He goes on to say that Sweden and Finland have a moral compass, unlike the rest of the EU.

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Biden may upgrade Ukraine's NATO application - but there's a catch

🎦 13:40-14:25⏩

Jonathan reports that Biden may agree to upgrade Ukraine's application for NATO membership before the end of his presidency in January 2025. However, the Financial times have said that very few of the 32 NATO members believe this is possible without a full and lasting ceasefire.

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US Presidential Elections - Disinformation and the threat from Russia, China and Iran

🎦 14:25-18:23⏩

Jonathan reports that the US have named Russia, Iran and China as the biggest threats to the US presidential election and that they are using AI to push disinformation. He talks about how depressing he finds the level of disinformation on Twitter (which he spends a lot of time on). He talks about how the algorithm (set by Elon Musk) means that he is constantly being shown disinformation, much of it pro-Russian, and how it makes him despair about the state of politics. He also believes that Elon Musk has no interest in stopping the disinformation and criticises his free speech absolutism, citing his hypocrisy in bowing down to Turkey, India and China. He then talks about the banning of JD Vance from Twitter - a US journalist was banned for sharing a document (that had been leaked by Iran) showing Vance in a bad light. He then talks about how a Russian Disinformation campaign in Canada is producing content to boost support for Pierre Poilievre and undermine Justin Trudeau.

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Southport Riots - Russian disinformation and Neo-Nazi Telegram account

🎦 18:23-22:58⏩

Jonathan talks about the riots in Southport (UK) following the killing of some children. Initially, disinformation (which had its roots in Russia) suggested it was a Muslim migrant. It transpired that the killer was a Christian from Wales, although Jonathan notes that he was from a migrant family. He then talks about a BBC report that traced the Telegram account that had fuelled the riots to a Finnish Neo-Nazi (Charles Emmanuel Mikko Razanen). He notes that the Telegram group (Southport Wake Up) contained a message saying "in this group chat we love Hitler". Alongside this, the administrator posted a manual (written by Russian fascists) on arson, how to avoid the police and target Muslims and Jews. Jonathan concludes that we must do a better job at fighting disinformation.

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US Vice Presidential Debate - Tim Walz vs JD Vance (a score draw)

🎦 22:58-25:46⏩

Jonathan talks about the recent US Vice Presidential debate between Tim Walz and JD Vance. He feels that it was a score draw, that JD Vance came across better than expected and that Tim Walz failed to land any killer blows, adopting a soft approach. He then talks about criticism levelled at the moderators for failing to ask a question about Ukraine. Whilst he acknowledges that it is a shame that it was ignored, he feels that including it may have resulted in a more partisan debate. However, he does feel that JD Vance should have been called out on his stance.

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Republicans support for Kamala Harris and reasons for this

🎦 25:46-32:53⏩

Jonathan references an article from the Kyiv Independent "We're Republicans and we're voting for Kamala Harris to back Ukraine", written by 2 prominent Republicans (Gregory P. Wilson and James Greenwood). The Republicans in question state that they are voting for Kamala Harris as this is a vote for Ukraine. They accuse Trump of doing very little to assist Ukraine. Jonathan then discusses the issue of Trump's claims about providing Javelins to Ukraine (in reality, this was a congressional decision and Trump even tried to withhold this aid). They go on to say that JD Vance is a staunch opponent of military and economic aid to Ukraine and that he opposed legislation to seize Russian sovereign assets. Jonathan agrees that seizing Russian assets should have been a priority. He then talks about how Trump has opposed the continued existence of NATO. He then compares the behaviours of Trump and Biden - when Russia bombed a children's hospital in Kyiv, this prompted Trump to reiterate that he would not necessarily defend a NATO ally from attack. Biden has taken the opposite stance, recently meeting with Zelensky and offering support for as long as it takes. He then criticises Trump for welcoming Viktor Orban to Mar-a-Largo (Orban is a dictator in the sphere of influence of Russia). Jonathan highlights how two prominent Republicans are saying exactly what he has been saying for months.

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Jackson Hinkle - Propagandist on the decline?

🎦 32:53-34:50⏩

Jonathan then talks about Jackson Hinkle (US disinformation expert who now lives in Russia). Initially, he had a degree of support, but this has waned since the start of the war. Hinkle is now advocating for the American Communist Party. Jonathan shows a recent picture posted by Hinkle of the Hezbollah leader, Saeed Hassan Nasrallah. Jonathan is critical of this. Pekka Kalinomi thinks this is the beginning of Hinkle's downfall, that he has zero engagement. Jonathan agrees that he is irrelevant.

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Wrap up

🎦 34:50-34:53⏩

Jonathan thanks viewers for watching.

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