Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"They've got this kind of mouth sphincter dysphoria going on that that you just don't know which one's operating at any one time."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:28⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the channel and reminds viewers that he will soon be travelling to Ukraine. This trip has been planned for some time now.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report - Russian Losses
🎦 00:28-04:00⏩
Jonathan reviews the daily figures released by the Ukrainian General Staff, noting that losses are high with 780 Russian personnel killed, 21 tanks, 38 armoured personnel vehicles (APVs) and 24 artillery systems destroyed. The losses are likely due to Russia's offensive operations along the front line. Jonathan notes that the loss of 38 APVs in a single day is significant, likely double the average daily losses for the conflict so far.
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Oryx Update - 2:1 Loss Ratio
🎦 02:07-03:16⏩
Jonathan highlights that the latest figures from Oryx, an open-source intelligence website, confirm that losses are approximately a 2:1 ratio in favour of Ukraine, a ratio that although good for Ukraine, is still not high enough given Russia's significant reserves of equipment.
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Russian Losses - Mi-8 Helicopter, OSA System, Tanks
🎦 03:16-04:00⏩
Jonathan shares details of visually confirmed Russian equipment losses, noting the loss of an Mi-8 helicopter which was brought down by power lines, an OSA air defence system, and a number of T-72 and T-80 tanks. Jonathan remarks on the number of BMP-2 and BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles lost, adding that the lack of BMP-1s destroyed suggests that Russia may have stopped refurbishing this particular model.
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Russian Patrol Ship Sunk in Sevastopol
🎦 04:00-05:21⏩
News has broken that a Russian patrol ship has been discovered sunk in Sevastopol. The information has been shared by Atash, a Crimean Tatar partisan movement. The ship is believed to be called the Tarantul, and likely sank following a Ukrainian attack on the port with maritime drones a few weeks ago.
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Russian Mi-8 Damaged in Bryansk, Russia
🎦 05:21-06:02⏩
Jonathan shows footage of a damaged Russian Mi-8 helicopter following an emergency landing in Russia's Bryansk region, noting that it appears to have been brought down after colliding with power lines.
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Ukraine's "FrankenSAM" Systems Used for First Time
🎦 06:02-07:18⏩
Ukraine has, for the first time, used the new "FrankenSAM" air defence systems which have been developed by Ukrainian and American engineers. These combine old Soviet-era systems with modern NATO missiles which Ukraine is unable to manufacture. One example of this is the use of RIM-7 Sea Sparrow missiles, typically launched from ships, with the Buk launcher system. Jonathan explains that this is necessary because while Ukraine still has plenty of Soviet-era systems, it is unable to source the missiles from Russia.
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Forbes Report - How Ukraine Shot Down Russian A-50
🎦 07:18-16:41⏩
Jonathan recounts a Forbes article that offers a theory for how Ukraine managed to shoot down a Russian A-50 surveillance aircraft and damage an accompanying Il-22 command post. Citing respected military analyst Tom Cooper, the article claims that Ukrainian forces may have lured the Russian aircraft, which normally flies further south over the Sea of Azov, into a trap. Jonathan explains that Ukrainian jets are believed to have successfully hit a number of Russian radar installations in Crimea. This loss of radar coverage forced the Russians to fly the A-50 further north to cover the gap, bringing it within range of Ukrainian air defence systems. It is believed that a Ukrainian S-300 system was used to illuminate the target, before a US-supplied Patriot battery, which had been switched on just long enough to avoid detection, shot down the A-50. The article notes that the attack highlights the depletion of Russia's surveillance aircraft, with only two A-50s now thought to be operational. Jonathan is impressed with Forbes' coverage of the war in general, praising their recent articles which have highlighted often overlooked Ukrainian successes. He speculates that the A-50 may have presented Ukraine with a target of opportunity, and that the strike was not part of a larger planned attack. A comment from a viewer suggests that Russia's insistence that the A-50 was downed by friendly fire is further proof that Ukraine was responsible. Jonathan believes that Russia would much rather admit to incompetence than acknowledge the skill of the Ukrainian armed forces. He notes that Russia's failure to retaliate in the usual way, with a wave of missiles, may be due to a lack of missiles rather than an unwillingness to strike back.
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Russian Truck Destroyed in Belgorod, Russia
🎦 19:51-20:22⏩
Jonathan shares footage of a Russian truck that was destroyed in a Ukrainian drone attack in Russia's Belgorod region. The truck was involved in the construction of fortifications near the Grayvoron checkpoint, a site that has been the target of numerous attacks. Jonathan notes that Ukraine continues to demonstrate its ability to strike targets within Russia.
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Footage - Ukrainian Bradley vs Russian T-90M
🎦 20:22-22:57⏩
Jonathan revisits the recent footage of a US-supplied Bradley infantry fighting vehicle destroying a Russian T-90M tank. The Bradley, armed with a 25mm Bushmaster chain gun, is seen unleashing a hail of fire on the T-90, highlighting the effectiveness of even older Western weapons systems against Russia's best tanks. Commenting on the footage, a viewer remarks that the fact that a 50-year-old Bushmaster can destroy a state-of-the-art Russian tank should be a worrying sign for Moscow, particularly given the more modern weapons systems used by NATO armies. Jonathan adds that there were rumours that after being crippled by the Bradley, the tank was subsequently finished off by a drone. He laughs at Russian attempts to spin the story, reading a report which ludicrously claims that the T-90 emerged victorious from the engagement.
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Drone Attack - 11 Shahed Drones Hit Targets in Ukraine
🎦 22:57-24:30⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia launched a wave of 33 Shahed suicide drones at targets across Ukraine. While 22 of the drones were intercepted, 11 made it through and are believed to have hit their targets in the Sumy, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad and Khmelnytskyi regions. Jonathan remarks that the Russians seem to be spreading out their attacks rather than focusing on a single target.
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Missile Attack - One Woman Killed in Chuhuiv
🎦 24:30-25:21⏩
Jonathan discusses the aftermath of the Russian missile strike on the town of Chuhuiv in the Kharkiv region. 10 S-300 missiles were fired at the town, killing one woman and injuring three others. He notes that the images released by Ukraine are likely only those that show damage to civilian infrastructure.
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US-Supplied Hawk Systems in Action
🎦 25:23-27:02⏩
Jonathan reveals that US-supplied MIM-23 Hawk medium-range surface-to-air missile systems, some of which date back to the Vietnam War, played a key role in repelling last night's Russian attacks. Although old, these systems have been constantly upgraded and were used effectively by Ukrainian air defence units. Jonathan notes that the decision to send these systems to Ukraine was a long time coming, suggesting that there are many more in service around the world.
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Ukrainian Drone Attacks on St Petersburg & Moscow
🎦 27:02-28:15⏩
In a significant development, drones have attacked targets in both St. Petersburg and Moscow. In St. Petersburg, a drone struck an oil terminal, causing a fire to break out, and another targeted the Pulkovo Airport. In Moscow, a drone was shot down by Russian air defence units as it approached the city. Despite the footage, Russia claims that there were no losses as a result of the strikes.
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Russia Claims it Downed Ukrainian Missiles
🎦 28:15-30:00⏩
Russia claims to have shot down two Ukrainian Tochka-U ballistic missiles over the Bryansk region. Jonathan notes that it is impossible to know the extent of the damage inflicted during attacks on Russian soil, highlighting that this lack of information is in stark contrast to the situation in Ukraine where the abundance of spotter drones means that most attacks are quickly identified and documented.
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Heating Cut to Thousands in Novosibirsk, Russia
🎦 30:00-30:43⏩
An "accident" at a heating plant in Novosibirsk has left 2,500 homes without heating, impacting around 500,000 people. Temperatures in the city have fallen as low as -28 degrees Celsius.
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Russia - Divorce Could Result in Deployment or Fine
🎦 30:43-31:47⏩
In an effort to boost Russia's flagging birth rate, the Russian parliament is considering a new law that would see people punished for getting divorced. The law would impose a fine of 100,000 rubles (around £900 or $1,100) or sentence people to hard labour in the "SMO zone". One Russian MP remarked that "marriage is natural, it is a celebration, we should penalise divorce". Jonathan expresses his disgust at the proposal, speculating that it is likely driven by a desire to keep people in unhappy marriages to produce children.
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Russia Steals Ukrainian Grain
🎦 31:47-32:12⏩
Russia has stolen millions of tons of grain, worth billions of dollars, from occupied Ukraine. The grain had been loaded onto a ship called the Balka Zafar which sailed from Sevastopol to Syria, transiting the Bosphorus Straits.
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Russian Propaganda - Ukraine Will "Remain in Some Form"
🎦 32:12-34:10⏩
Following recent genocidal comments made by former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, there has been a slight softening of the rhetoric on Russian state TV, with some propagandists now claiming that Russia will not be able to achieve all of its military objectives in Ukraine. One pundit admitted that Ukraine will likely remain in some form because Russia does not have enough military power to destroy it, adding that Ukraine's level of resistance is too strong. Jonathan remarks that these comments, although still propaganda, are nonetheless revealing.
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Russia Jams GPS Over Poland
🎦 34:10-35:07⏩
GPS signal disruption has been reported in three Polish cities - Pelan, Konin, and Poznan - as well as in Finland and Estonia. While the cause is unknown, a GPS monitoring website suggests that Russia may be responsible, noting that Moscow has jamming systems within range. Jonathan points out that if these systems are located in the Kaliningrad Oblast, Russia's exclave on the Baltic Sea, then Moscow's ability to jam GPS signals over a wide area is significant.
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Mike Sapperton - Russia's "Paranoia"
🎦 35:07-37:32⏩
Jonathan shares a comment from a viewer who remarks that the war in Ukraine is a tragedy driven by Russia's paranoia, arguing that Moscow faced no real military threat from Ukraine or NATO. Jonathan agrees with the comment, stating that Putin, who has amassed a vast personal fortune while in office, was never in any real danger. He expresses his despair at the lack of political will in some quarters to support Ukraine, and his concern that the West's attention is being diverted by other issues around the globe. Jonathan believes that the world is at a critical juncture and that the outcome of the war in Ukraine will have long-term global ramifications.
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Wrap Up
🎦 37:32-end
Jonathan thanks viewers and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video.
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