BREAKING NEWS UPDATE: Bomber Blitz Latest - What, Where, How, & Why of the Airbase Assault
Table of Contents 📖
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:39⏩
Jonathan M.S. Pearce welcomes viewers to a breaking news update on the Ukraine war, focusing on the recent incredible success of Ukrainian FPV (First Person View) drone attacks on Russian airbases. He mentions initial footage of FPV drones destroying aircraft and hints at a fifth airbase targeted where a truck blew up. Jonathan clarifies that earlier claims of a nuclear submarine base being hit were actually Olenya Air Base from a different direction. He links these events to recent railway infrastructure targeting and upcoming talks in Istanbul, suggesting Ukraine is demonstrating its leverage. The video promises to explain the 'what, where, how, and why' of these assaults.
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Russian Airbase Attacks: Initial Reports & Locations
🎦 01:39-02:48⏩
Jonathan details the initial targets:
- Belaya Air Base: In the Irkutsk region, 4,400 kilometres from Ukraine. Footage shows smoke rising from the airfield.
- Olenya Air Base: 1,800 kilometres away.
Initial claims suggested over 40 aircraft, mainly strategic bombers, were destroyed or damaged, with a possibility that an AWACS and cargo planes were also involved. Jonathan emphasises that this was an "incredibly successful day for the Ukrainians."
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Coordinated SBU Attack on Four Russian Airfields
🎦 02:48-03:07⏩
SBU (Security Service of Ukraine) officials have confirmed that this was a coordinated attack on four Russian airfields:
- Belaya
- Diaghilevo
- Olenya
- Ivanovo
Imagery from Ivanovo has also begun to emerge. Jonathan notes that it was originally planned as an attack on five airbases, but one did not succeed.
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Clarification on Fifth Targeted Airfield
🎦 03:08-03:40⏩
Further details suggest a potential fifth or sixth target, though it wasn't included in the plans seen. There were claims of another airfield in the Moscow region being targeted, but this was later clarified to be Olenya, not a new location.
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Confirmed Targeted Airbases & False Severomorsk Report
🎦 03:40-04:27⏩
Jonathan clarifies that the Severomorsk submarine base (Russian Northern Fleet in Murmansk region), initially rumoured to be hit, was not confirmed as a target. The confirmed targeted airbases are:
- Olenya (Murmansk region)
- Belaya (Irkutsk region)
- Diaghilevo (Ryazan region)
- Ivanovo (Ivanovo region)
He reiterates this was a "really successful day for the Ukrainians."
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Operation Spiderweb: Planned Targets & Drone Deployment
🎦 04:28-05:16⏩, 09:58-11:05⏩
Jonathan displays a photo of the operation plan found on SBU chief Vasil Malyuk's table, confirming the targeted airbases: Olenya, Diaghilevo, Ivanovo, and Belaya. An additional target, Ukrainka in the Amur Oblast (6,000 kilometres from Ukraine's border), was planned but the attack on it failed. The drones were FPV drones, released from specially adapted containers on the back of lorries, which opened from the roof. Jonathan speculates that the footage from the drones would likely have been relayed by satellite, as the distance is too great for direct signal transmission back to Ukraine.
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Drone Footage & Attack Method
🎦 05:17-06:56⏩
Jonathan describes the "absolutely incredible" and clear footage emerging from the attacks. The FPV drones launched from modified containers on lorries then struck the aircraft. He notes the huge plumes of smoke from the airframes and speculates that the primary target was the aircraft themselves, rather than airbase infrastructure like control towers.
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Battle Damage Assessment & Targeting Specifics
🎦 06:56-07:56⏩
Jonathan explains that the visible battle damage assessment is likely the "bare minimum" and conservative, with more damage potentially inflicted. The drone footage shows drones slowly lowering themselves onto the wings of the planes, suggesting they aimed for what they believed to be the weakest part of the aircraft, such as the fuel tanks.
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Financial Times & SBU Confirmation
🎦 07:57-08:35⏩
According to sources speaking to the Financial Times, the SBU confirmed it conducted a large-scale special operation to destroy Russian bomber aircraft deep inside Russia. The SBU drones targeted aircraft used to bomb Ukrainian cities nightly, claiming over 40 hits. Jonathan also shows imagery from Ivanovo military airfield, suggesting it was successfully hit.
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Debunking Severomorsk Strike Claim
🎦 08:35-09:37⏩
Jonathan addresses a claim from his earlier breaking news update that Severomorsk (a nuclear submarine base near Olenya) was struck. He clarifies, citing Tod R. Iverson, that the footage widely believed to be from Severomorsk was actually from Olenya Air Base, taken from flats in Vysokie. This corroborates Russian statements that everything was quiet at Severomorsk.
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Operation "Spiderweb" Overview
🎦 09:37-09:58⏩
Jonathan introduces the "how it happened" section. SBU officials have stated that this was a coordinated attack on four, possibly five, Russian airfields. The operation, codenamed "Spiderweb," was a "hugely ambitious project" planned for over a year and personally supervised by President Zelensky.
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SBU Operational Details & Impact on Russia's Strategic Bombers
🎦 10:03-12:55⏩
- Tactics: The attack used dozens of FPV drones armed with explosives, smuggled into Russia. SBU chief Vasil Malyuk reportedly oversaw the operation using a map of Russian targets.
- Drone Autonomy: Special Kherson Cat provided more details, stating that parts of the drones used autonomous target guidance, with results to be confirmed via satellite imagery. Jonathan suggests the drones likely had preset coordinates and then autonomously searched for targets.
- Scale: The SBU covertly transported 150 small attack drones and 300 munitions into Russia, with 116 drones eventually launched.
- Launch Method: Drones were controlled via Russian telecommunications networks with automated guidance systems. Mobile launch points were established near Russian strategic aviation bases, allowing for close-range, daylight attacks.
- Surprise Element: Despite layered air defences, SAM systems, electronic warfare, and armed patrols, the Russian military was caught off guard, expecting nighttime attacks by larger drones, not small quadcopters in broad daylight.
- Key Success: The most successful strike occurred at Olenya Air Base, where Tu-95 bombers were stationed. Several aircraft were completely destroyed after drones hit fully fuelled tanks.
- Irreplaceable Losses: Jonathan highlights that the true impact is not just the billions of dollars in destroyed equipment, but the functional loss of strategic bombers that Russia cannot replace, as they are no longer in production. This makes the attack "incredibly highly valuable."
Strategic Impact for Ukraine & NATO
🎦 12:55-14:12⏩
Jonathan passionately stresses the immense strategic success of this operation:
- Ukraine has "incapacitated a huge proportion of the Russian strategic bomber fleet" in a single morning.
- He declares it an "absolutely bona fide awesome success for NATO" and suggests the US Department of Defence should be celebrating.
- He argues that Ukraine is achieving what the US has "dreamed of doing for the last 70 years but haven't had the ability... or the opportunity to do it."
- He expresses anger at figures like Donald Trump who downplay the value of aid to Ukraine, calling this operation a significant "return on investment."
Ukrainian Domestic Capability & US Awareness
🎦 14:12-15:30⏩
Significantly, this particular project was achieved without American or Western assistance, relying solely on Kyiv's planning and domestically produced arms. Christopher Miller of the Financial Times notes that Ukraine would typically not notify the White House of such an operation, especially one not involving Western weapons, partly due to concerns that a US administration might try to wave it off. Administration sources told CBS News that the White House was indeed unaware of this large-scale drone attack, echoing previous undisclosed operations like the attacks on the Moskva flagship and the Kursk operation. Jonathan highlights that Russia will now be forced to invest heavily in base security. All SBU agents involved reportedly returned safely to Ukraine, with no Ukrainian losses. This operation sets an unprecedented global precedent in terms of execution and effect.
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Drone Delivery Method Revealed
🎦 15:30-17:05⏩
Chris O'Wickey shared photos reportedly showing how the Ukrainian drones were delivered: in false compartments built into the top of standard 20-foot intermodal cargo containers. These containers, possibly equipped with solar panels, were then loaded onto trailers, allowing the drones to be launched from the roof. Jonathan notes that the release of such pre-prepared photos indicates this operation is also a significant PR win for Ukraine, alongside its military success.
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Logistics of the Drone Operation
🎦 17:05-18:15⏩
MAKS24 provided further details on the logistical complexity:
- The SBU first transported drones into Russia, then integrated them into mobile "wooden houses" (containers).
- On Russian territory, the drones were hidden under the roofs of the containers, which were then placed on trucks.
- At the opportune moment, the container roofs were opened remotely, and the drones launched to hit the Russian bombers.
SBU sources emphasise that the personnel involved in this "historic special operation" had been in Ukraine for a long time, suggesting any Russian detentions related to the incident would be staged for domestic propaganda. Jonathan questions the provenance of an image showing a "fully loaded" drone, doubting it could fit into the container compartments shown.
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Fate of Truck Driver & Local Interference
🎦 18:15-18:55⏩
Jonathan addresses a report of a truck driver found strangled, stating he doesn't believe it's linked to Ukrainian actions, viewing the drivers as potentially manipulated "innocent bystanders." He mentions that some locals reportedly tried to stop one of the trucks, which could have led to unfortunate incidents.
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Drone Technology & Potential AWACS Hit
🎦 18:55-19:56⏩
Footage shows a drone launching from one of the trucks, appearing to be a regular FPV drone, but notably operating autonomously using AI. Ukrainian drones were also reportedly spotted over Ivanovo-Severny Air Base, home to Russia's 144th airborne early warning aviation regiment. Rumours suggest an A-50 AWACS aircraft may have been struck, which would be significant given their cost, value, and scarcity (two were previously taken out).
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Drone Launch Video Analysis
🎦 19:56-21:37⏩
Jonathan shows a fascinating video of a drone launching from a truck, noting that they didn't all launch simultaneously in a swarm, but rather one after another, with about 40 seconds between each launch. He points out the extreme danger for anyone attempting to physically stop the drones, as they are "loaded with munitions."
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Russian Local's Account of the Attack
🎦 21:37-23:08⏩
Jonathan shares a subtitled video of a local Russian resident's eyewitness account:
- The resident saw "that crap burning over there" and observed a car (likely a truck/lorry) parked at the edge from which drones took off.
- They filmed four or five drones, noting that they first hit something like solar panels before disappearing.
- The resident recounts seeing drones launch one after another and then seeing smoke and debris flying from the airfield as it was hit, expressing shock that the "bastards already made it to Siberia."
- They lament the situation, exclaiming, "What the hell is this? Time to shut them down completely!" and adding a touch of dark humour about having just poured a drink to relax.
Truck Incidents & Failed Ukrainka Attack
🎦 23:08-27:30⏩
Jonathan discusses various incidents involving the drone-launching trucks:
- Some trucks reportedly featured a self-destruct mechanism, as evidenced by a container on fire after the last drone launch.
- Incredibly, local Russian residents were seen climbing on top of containers, attempting to prevent drones from taking off with "bare hands, stones, and sticks," a "insanely dangerous" act given the munitions. Jonathan speculates if this prevented some launches or led to burning trucks.
- Another truck, allegedly involved in Operation Spiderweb, was found completely burnt out on a road. Jonathan ponders if it was a failed mission or if it self-destructed to destroy evidence.
- A third location is shown, likely the Ukrainka airbase target, where a truck malfunctioned or exploded, preventing drone deployment. This caused a "shame for the Ukrainians in that respect."
Jonathan notes the confusion due to multiple burning trucks and their uncertain success rates. Defmon claimed one of these trucks was indeed meant for Ukrainka Air Base.
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The "How It Happened" Summary
🎦 27:30-27:56⏩
Jonathan concludes the "how it happened" section with a broad summary, acknowledging that many finer details (like drone control, communication, and footage retrieval) are still unknown, but the overall method is clear.
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Geopolitical Context: Istanbul Talks & Putin Paradox
🎦 27:56-29:07⏩
Jonathan transitions to the "why it happened" section, arguing that this attack serves as a strong statement before the Istanbul talks. While the US (and figures like Trump) often downplay Ukraine's position, this operation demonstrates that Ukraine "does hold cards." Jonathan introduces his "Putin paradox" concept: the better Ukraine performs, the angrier Putin becomes, increasing the likelihood of him doing "something mental." He anticipates "serious pushback" from Russia tonight but questions how effective it will be given the significant damage to their strategic bombing fleet. He speculates whether Ukraine has drones already targeted at Russian launch sites in anticipation.
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Political Implications & Russian Reaction
🎦 29:07-29:58⏩
Jonathan further explores the political ramifications: Will Trump blame Ukraine for potentially derailing the Istanbul talks, even though Ukraine's military operation benefits NATO? He questions how Russia will react – will they downplay the incident or escalate? He concludes it's undeniably "embarrassing for the Russians."
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Confirmed Russian Aircraft Losses & Damage
🎦 29:58-31:57⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the battle damage assessment (BDA) based on open sources:
- Olenya Air Base: 2 Tu-95MS bombers destroyed, 2 Tu-95MS bombers damaged, 1 An-12 transport aircraft destroyed.
- Belaya Air Base: 3 Tu-95MS bombers destroyed, 2 Tu-22M3 bombers damaged.
Ukraine is claiming over 40 aircraft damaged or destroyed. Jonathan notes the "very big difference" between claims and confirmed visuals, reminding viewers that visual confirmations are always the most conservative estimates. NEPRO OSINT reported an additional Tu-95 loss at Belaya Airfield, bringing the confirmed total for that base to 4 Tu-95s and 1 An-12. The number of smoke plumes at airbases is also a general indicator of multiple hits.
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Strategic Importance of Aircraft Losses
🎦 31:57-34:23⏩
Jonathan highlights the critical significance of these losses:
- Russia has approximately 118 strategic bombers in total (47 Tu-95MS, 15 Tu-160s, 56 Tu-22M3s).
- However, many of these are not operational, and crucial: new strategic bombers are not being produced.
- This renders strategic aviation "on the verge of extinction" for Russia. Jonathan asserts, "For Russia, the loss of one is a disaster. And today, dozens have been destroyed or damaged."
- Even pro-Russian source Rebar admitted that the Tu-95 and Tu-22 aircraft are "long been out of production" and "there's nothing to restore them with," making these losses "cannot be restored."
- Jonathan quotes a Russian source expressing defeat: "We take off our hats to the enemy. What has been happening for the last 24 hours is effing crap."
Political Reaction & Support for Ukraine
🎦 34:23-35:07⏩
Jonathan shares a comment from former Republican lawmaker Adam Kinzinger, contrasting Trump's claim that "Ukraine has no cards" with Ukraine's destruction of a significant portion of Russia's bomber force. Jonathan views this as not just a military but also a "PR success," a powerful statement to both the United States and Russia. He believes such an undeniable success should galvanise Ukraine's allies, encouraging even more support by demonstrating Ukraine's innovation and ability to achieve strategic victories.
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Future Ukrainian Strategy & Putin's Humiliation
🎦 35:07-36:54⏩
Jonathan suggests that Ukraine's next strategic step should be to "absolutely hammer" Shahed drone manufacturing and launch sites, specifically mentioning Yeysk. Eliminating Russia's ability to launch missiles and drones would allow Ukraine to focus more heavily on the battlefront, rather than defending against constant aerial attacks. He hails this operation as another day of "humiliation for Putin," placing it alongside other major Ukrainian successes like the sinking of the Moskva, the Kerch Bridge attack, and the incursion into the Kursk region – all operations undertaken by Ukraine independently, without US involvement or prior notification. Jonathan predicts Putin will, as always, pretend nothing happened and maintain the "goals of the special military operation will be achieved," with no changes among top commanders. However, he firmly believes this operation will be "one of the decisive steps in this war."
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Russia's Strategic Bomber Shuffle & Nuclear Implications
🎦 36:54-38:23⏩
Jonathan references Shashank Joshi (The Economist), who reported days prior that Russia was shuffling strategic bombers, perhaps to obscure launch patterns. Olenya Air Base, which was hit, was noted to be hosting an "unusually high concentration of strategic aircraft." Marshall Billingsley noted that Ukraine "just destroyed around 30% or more of Russia's nuclear-capable strategic bombers." Jonathan jokingly adds that this "shouldn't be hard for Russia to comply with new START treaty limits now," highlighting the massive benefit to NATO of such a significant degradation of Russia's nuclear-capable aviation fleet in mere hours.
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Wrap up
🎦 38:23-39:03⏩
Jonathan informs viewers that he has re-uploaded his initial live breaking news update as a pre-recorded video (with assistance from BenniePie), as live streams aren't as often watched after they conclude. This current video serves as an addendum, providing the latest information. He expects more details to emerge in the coming hours and days, and thanks his audience for trusting his channel for their information.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
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