Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Top-Attack Mines, US Drip-Feed War Approach, Wagner & Prigozhin
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"Putin is just a massively corrupt, pretty awful ruler. And I'm fairly sure that even if he had another morally dubious ruler to come along and replace Putin, they would have a slightly better grasp of reality that would keep in check some of their more like horrific desires maybe."
And here is the summary:
Hello Team!
Jonathan is taking a break from watching Cobra Kai with his son to record this extra update video. He will be focusing on comments from the wonderful ATPG community.
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Analysis of Prigozhin's death
- Prigozhin's death serves as a warning to potential successors not to betray Putin
- Putin no longer needed Prigozhin after the mutiny; Wagner was being dismantled in Russia
- Prigozhin was a walking issue for Putin, embodying his political humiliation
- Most of the politicised conservative Russian public see Prigozhin's death as deserved
- His death is meant to intimidate rather than inspire protests from Wagner loyalists
US approach to supporting Ukraine
Some viewers suggest the US is intentionally drip-feeding support to Ukraine to enable a long, attritional war that will debilitate Russia in the long-term and prevent them from ever invading again. In April 2022, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin stated they want to see Russia weakened to the degree it can't invade Ukraine again. However, Jonathan is unsure if this is still the US approach or if there are other reasons, like avoiding escalation, for their reticence to provide things like ATACMS.
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Israel's potential to help Ukraine
An Israeli ex-IDF soldier commented that Israel has significant military capabilities it could provide Ukraine but is not due to geopolitical implications with Russia in Syria. However, he argues it is time for Israel to take sides. Recently, tensions have emerged between Ukraine and Israel, with Ukraine threatening to bar Jewish pilgrims from visiting a holy site and accusing Israel of deporting Ukrainians and leaking confidential military information to Russia. Israel could have a huge impact on the war if it provided Ukraine with its advanced military technology and hardware.
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Russian top-attack mines
The Russian PTKM-1R top-attack mine is designed to target vehicles from above. It requires substantial manual deployment and relies on battery-powered sensors. Russian guides recommend installing them on town perimeters to target the 3rd-4th vehicle in a convoy. However, despite being marketed as cost-effective and widely used, there have been very few documented instances of these mines being found or causing damage in Ukraine. This suggests there may be issues with their production, performance, or cost-effectiveness.
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Wagner after Prigozhin
With Prigozhin, Utkin and Chekalov dead, the future of Wagner soldiers is uncertain:
- 2000 Wagner troops are returning to Russia unemployed, armed, and not counted as veterans
- They are being portrayed as villains in local Russian media
- As "traitors" who killed Russian pilots, they will demand but not receive respect at home
It remains to be seen how the Russian military will deal with them and what they will do themselves.
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Wrap up
Jonathan is planning to set up a Discord server soon with the help of a viewer so the community can discuss topics outside of YouTube. He is also hoping to arrange interviews with a viewer who does charity work driving supplies to Ukraine and with the theologian/sniper he previously featured. He appreciates all the support and will keep everyone posted.
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