Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: IAMD IBCS EOC!!!, East Germany, Gazprom, Mud, & Procurement
Table of Contents 📖
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"The key of this offensive will be that the Ukrainian combat brigades, the heavy brigades, advance after the breakthrough and don't stop. The more they drive, the more chaos they cause in the Russian rear, the more cities and territories they take, the more panic in the Russians and the more Russian troops will run away."
Hello Team!
Jonathan discusses a procurement thread from Thomas Theiner about equipment the US military has ordered, likely to replace what has been sent to Ukraine. This includes:
- Stinger missiles, Avenger vehicles being replaced with M-Shorad Strikers
- Patriot missile systems and missiles
- An Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD) Battle Command System (IBCS) Engagement Operation Center (EOC) which connects sensors and effectors into one command and control system
IAMD IBCS EOC System
The IAMD IBCS EOC system is the most modern air defense command and control system. It fuses multiple sensor tracks into one, decides the optimal effector (missile/interceptor) to use, and can engage threats across the entire battlefield. Ukraine likely received at least one of these systems which would be a huge capability for protecting against Russian missiles and aircraft.
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Additional US Procurement
The thread lists many other items being procured including:
- Missiles (Harpoon anti-ship, AMRAAM air-to-air, HARM anti-radiation, Excalibur guided artillery rounds, TOW anti-tank)
- GMLRS rockets for HIMARS
- 25mm ammunition for Bradley IFVs
- M109A7 Paladin howitzers to replace M109A2s sent to Ukraine
- Trucks, night vision, weapon sights, artillery ammunition and more
Potential Ukrainian Counteroffensive
In an interview, Thomas Theiner discusses a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive:
- Ukraine is putting together 12 heavy combat brigades (30-40,000 troops) to punch through Russian lines in a concentrated area
- After the breakthrough, these brigades will spread out and drive deep into Russian rear areas to cut off supply lines and retreat routes
- The goal is to cause chaos and panic in Russian forces, similar to what happened in Kharkiv, and retake large amounts of territory
- Ukrainian brigades are smaller (3000-3500) compared to NATO (5000) as they don't need as large of a logistics/supply element
- Russia's forces are spread thinly and have been degraded - many "brigades" are now only a few hundred men
Mud Season
Despite the potential for a counteroffensive, current conditions at the front are extremely muddy which makes any large scale operations difficult. Photos show Ukrainian soldiers struggling through deep mud.
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Eastern Germany and the AfD
In a previous video, Jonathan stated that lower support for Ukraine in Eastern Germany was due to connections with Russia/Soviet Union. However, several German viewers corrected him:
- The lack of support is because a large percentage of East Germans support the far-right AfD party which is pro-Russia
- This is due to East Germans struggling to adapt after reunification when their economy/industry collapsed overnight leading to job losses and frustration
- The AfD capitalized on this discontent by offering simple solutions and blaming others
Gazprom and PMCs
Jonathan ponders a comment suggesting that since Gazprom (Russian state gas company) is directly funding PMC mercenary forces fighting in Ukraine, it may give Ukraine justification to strike Gazprom facilities and infrastructure in Russia. This would be different than Russia hitting Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
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Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for their support and welcomes respectful disagreement and debate in the comments. He appreciates when people bring receipts and good reasoning if they have a different opinion.
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