Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"The Russians have got form for doing an awful lot of pretty horrible stuff, like double tapping in Syria when the white helmets, the very famous people who emergency services effectively kind of volunteer emergency services who would be clearing people out rubble doing amazing amazing work and they double tap these targets so that the white helmets would get taken out and that's kind of what the Russians do"
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an update on the timing of his videos over the next 24 hours as he returns from "exile". He notes they may be a bit "funky" due to travel.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- 460 KIA (lower than previous)
- 3 tanks (lower), 12 APVs (significant)
- 24 artillery systems (consistent degradation, lack of counter-battery fire)
- 2 helicopters (footage shows at least 1 pilot KIA)
- 4 UAVs, 17 vehicles/fuel tanks, 10 pieces of special equipment (possibly highest number, likely electronic warfare, ISR)
Visually Confirmed Losses
Andrew Perpetua's survey of video footage shows parity between Ukrainian and Russian losses, suggesting Ukrainians are attacking. Losses include IFVs, MRAPs, tanks on both sides. Two Russian K-52 helicopters confirmed lost (1/3 of fleet per Oryx team). Losses will be higher than visually confirmed.
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Strikes and Attacks
- Russian MoD claims Ukraine tried to attack patrol ships in Black Sea with naval drones, destroyed by onboard armaments. No official Ukrainian statements yet.
- Moscow hit by Ukrainian drone, no victims claimed but ambulances on scene. Likely a "beaver" drone. Damage to Expo Center building. Intended to give Russians "something to think about".
- Evolution in Ukrainian drone usage - FPV drones used for "dive bombing" to drop bombs precisely without losing the drone.
Issues in Russian Military
Apparently leaked memo from Dmitry Rogozin to head of Russian presidential administration details major shortcomings in Russian army equipment:
- Artillery inferior to Western equivalents
- Shortage of 152mm shells
- Inadequate communications (problematic Azart system)
- Obsolete and ineffective drones (Orlan, Eleron, etc) with poor optics and vulnerable to EW
Memo stresses these issues are critical to war outcome. Adds to previous reporting on Russian issues like counter-battery.
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Miscellaneous Updates
- Contrary to Shoigu's recent claims, Russian equipment has major issues per leaked memo
- Fire at ice arena construction site in Yekaterinburg, Russia. Fires across Russia have increased since invasion.
- Russian video showing Mariupol "before and after" is misleading propaganda. City was largely untouched before Russian invasion and bombing.
- Washington Post reports US intelligence assesses Ukrainian counteroffensive unlikely to reach Melitopol. Suggests Russians exhausting themselves though.
- Footage of Ukrainian tank moving freely in field suggests minefields not as extensive as thought behind front lines. Positive sign for Ukrainian advances.
- Deputy head of Ukraine's state tax service survived apparent assassination attempt in Kyiv. Concerns over Zelensky's safety.
Wrap Up
Jonathan thanks viewers and requests likes, subscribes and shares. Notes he will be working on part 2 of the update next.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
No major issues or lack of clarity in the transcript.
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Steps:
Extract key information from the video transcript, focusing on the main topics discussed
Organize the information into sections with appropriate subheadings
Summarize each section concisely, ensuring key points, numbers, and quotes are included
Review summary to check all key information is covered and it flows logically
Add introduction and wrap up sections
Select most profound or impactful quote
Structure response using provided XML tags
Proofread and refine
