Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:56⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to a late night frontline update for 14/07/2024 and jokes about the "disaster" of Spain winning the Euro 2024 football final, joking that "the universe has made a bit of a mistake". He then directs viewers who may be unfamiliar with his mapping symbology to pause the video for an explanation before providing an overview of the areas covered on the map.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Northern Front Update: Ukrainian Gains

🎦 00:56-02:47⏩

Jonathan highlights the Ukrainian army's successful recapture of the border locality of Sotnitskyi Kozachok from Russian forces, as well as their increased control over warehouses north of Leo Biquet and positions north of the dachas of Litzy. Jonathan acknowledges JR for the mapping update. There is a minor discrepancy between JR's map, which was completed five hours previously, and the Surat Maps map, which indicates some Ukrainian gains north of Kreminna. Jonathan resolves to investigate further and update his own map accordingly. He highlights some Ukrainian gains north of Lyman.

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Vovchansk: Conflicting Claims and Analysis

🎦 02:47-05:07⏩

Jonathan notes the two blue lines on the map near Vovchansk, representing the Russian and Ukrainian defensive lines, with the grey zone in between. He acknowledges the differing interpretations of Russian defensive lines presented by various sources, including Yellow Deep State Map, Surat Maps, and Andrew Perpetua. Jonathan expresses skepticism towards claims that Russian forces crossed the Vodja River to connect the aggregates plant to their bridgehead, suggesting they may be false. He acknowledges Surat Maps' recent assertion that this crossing did occur and plans to investigate further. Jonathan reports heavy fighting in Vovchansk over the past four days, with Russian forces regaining some positions in the northeast. He notes claims of Russian advancement on the other bank of the Vovcha River, reaching the agricultural school. While acknowledging the possibility of fabrication, he finds it unlikely, given the consistent reporting over several days. Jonathan also highlights Ukrainian counter-attacks, resulting in the recapture of buildings on Haharana and Shevchenko streets, indicating an attempt to outflank the Russian-controlled hospital in Vovchansk.

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Kharkiv: Analysis of Russian Offensive

🎦 05:07-08:50⏩

Jonathan shares insights from Yoni Askola, a Finnish PhD candidate and OSINT analyst, who suggests that the situation in the Kharkiv region is deteriorating for Russia. He cites Russian military blogger Anatoly Radov's acknowledgment of escalating challenges for Russian forces near Kupyansk due to Ukrainian counterattacks. Jonathan agrees with Askola's assessment that Russia's diversionary offensive in northern Kharkiv has been a "colossal failure." He argues that Russia's inability to achieve military or political objectives in the area, coupled with the unnecessary redeployment of troops from other fronts, has benefited Ukraine. Jonathan reiterates his belief that Russia's decision to deploy troops to Kharkiv instead of concentrating on other areas, like Siversk, was a strategic blunder. He contends that Russia could have achieved more decisive victories elsewhere, particularly in areas where Ukrainian defenses were weaker. Jonathan believes that Russia's offensive has backfired, as it allowed the West to justify supplying Ukraine with longer-range weapons capable of striking Russian territory. Jonathan maintains that the offensive was ill-conceived, as Russian forces failed to advance close enough to Kharkiv to effectively utilize their artillery, nor did they establish a substantial buffer zone around Belgorod.

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Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna: Russian Advances and Concerns

🎦 08:50-10:09⏩

Jonathan observes minor Russian gains in the Ploschanka area, west of Kreminna, noting their advance towards Makiivka. He expresses concern over the Russian presence in Makiivka, acknowledging its significance as a settlement. While acknowledging the relatively small amount of territory gained by Russia, Jonathan highlights the strategic importance of Makiivka, which has resisted Russian advances for a considerable period. He cites reports from "Sorry Mazaroshan" indicating that Russian forces now control 30% of Makiivka, granting them access to the Zherebets River from a new axis. Although this isn't the first time the river has been breached, Jonathan expresses apprehension about Russia's steady southward advance.

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Lyman-Siversk: No Significant Changes

🎦 10:09-10:43⏩

Jonathan reports no changes in Torska, Terny, the Serebryansky Forest, along the Siversk front line, or the northern Solidar sector around Rozdolivka.

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Bakhmut: Conflicting Claims and Defensive Lines

🎦 10:43-12:45⏩

Jonathan notes minor Russian gains near Bakhmut but no change in Bakhmut itself, suggesting a possible regrouping of Russian forces. He highlights the discrepancies between Deep State Maps and Surat Maps regarding the situation northwest of Klishchiivka, with Deep State Maps indicating a Russian pushback and Surat Maps showing further Russian gains south of the trench line. Jonathan points out that the discrepancies between these sources are particularly pronounced in this area, underscoring the challenges of accurately assessing the situation on the ground. He cites Andrew Perpetua's description of Klishchiivka as a heavily contested grey zone, largely rubble, offering little cover or shelter.

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Toretsk: Russian Gains and Mapping Discrepancies

🎦 12:45-13:55⏩

Jonathan observes Russian advancements around Toretsk, south of their main sector, pushing towards Pivnichne. He highlights a report from "Kutry Rinok" alleging Russian control over several streets in the urban environment of Toretsk. While other sources haven't corroborated this claim, Jonathan acknowledges its plausibility and plans to monitor the situation. He notes that both Andrew Perpetua and Surat Maps agree on the widening of the Russian bridgehead in the area, signaling potential Russian gains. However, he also mentions Perpetua's belief that Russian advances would likely be contained in this sector compared to New York.

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Avdiivka: Russian Advances and Ukrainian Counterattacks

🎦 13:55-17:13⏩

Jonathan shifts his focus to the Avdiivka sector, highlighting minor Russian gains and discrepancies in mapping updates. He reports on Russian advances towards Vodiane, less than a kilometer from their main positions. Additionally, he notes Russian progress north and east of Novoselivka Druha, with fighting now occurring within the town. Jonathan observes that Andrew Perpetua's mapping hasn't fully reflected these recent developments, attributing it to potential saving issues. Despite this, he anticipates consensus among various sources regarding the Russian encirclement and capture of Novoselivka Druha. He then revisits Klishchiivka, acknowledging a missed report from Surat Maps about Russian advances and their control over new sections of the hills. Jonathan highlights a Ukrainian counterattack southwest of Krasnohorivka, resulting in the recapture of a farm and the reestablishment of Ukrainian presence on Lementova and Zalizhnitshne streets. He views this counteroffensive as a positive development for Ukraine, potentially compelling Russia to divert resources and attention away from their offensive operations.

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Donetsk City: Ukrainian Special Forces and Prisoner Brigades

🎦 17:13-19:42⏩

Jonathan speculates that the Ukrainian counterattack in Krasnohorivka could suggest the presence of additional Ukrainian forces in the area, potentially signaling a more robust defense. He transitions to discussing footage of the "Shkval" special battalion, composed of volunteer prisoners integrated into Ukraine's 47th Mechanized Brigade. Jonathan highlights their successful operation, supported by Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles, to clear a Russian-held tree line in an unspecified location within the Donetsk region. Jonathan emphasizes the contrast between the Ukrainian approach to utilizing former prisoners in combat roles and the Russian method. He notes that the 47th Brigade employed a rigorous selection process, including interviews, ensuring the suitability and motivation of ex-prisoner volunteers. This approach, he argues, stands in stark contrast to Russia's alleged use of convicts in "kamikaze assaults," suggesting a more humane and ethical approach by Ukraine. Jonathan interprets the presence and effectiveness of these convict brigades as a sign of Ukraine's commitment to bolstering its front-line defenses, even if it means deploying less experienced units. While acknowledging the potential risks associated with deploying newly mobilized troops, including convict brigades, Jonathan views their presence as a necessary measure given the intensity of the fighting.

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Velyka Novosilka: Russian Control of Urozhaine and Advancements

🎦 19:42-21:12⏩

Jonathan moves southward, bypassing Vuhledar, Marinka, and Novomykhailivka, to focus on the Velyka Novosilka sector. He notes that all mapping sources concur that Urozhaine is now, at least predominantly, under Russian control. Citing Surat Maps, he reports that Russian forces have advanced north of Staromaiorske, capturing trenches and warehouses previously held by Ukrainian forces. Jonathan underscores the consensus among various sources, including Rob Lee, regarding Russian control of Urozhaine and their northward advance in this sector.

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Southern Front Line and Dnipro River: No Major Changes

🎦 21:12-22:20⏩

Jonathan concludes the front-line update by stating that there have been no significant developments in Robotyne or other areas along the southern front line. He observes that the situation along the Dnipro River remains largely static, with Russian forces positioned on one side and Ukrainian forces on the other. However, Jonathan expresses concern over the continued Russian shelling of Ukrainian settlements along the Dnipro River, primarily targeting civilian infrastructure. He characterizes this as "wanton terrorism" due to the lack of significant military targets in the area.

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Wrap Up

🎦 22:20-22:52⏩

Jonathan thanks JR for the mapping update and apologizes for the delay in presenting it. He acknowledges that Surat Maps has updated their map since JR's work, leading to some discrepancies, but believes the information presented remains valuable. Jonathan encourages viewers to like, subscribe, and share the video, expressing gratitude for their support. He then signs off, promising to get some sleep.

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"They've only mobilized them relatively soon and if they're getting sent to the front lines rather than you know waiting for some i don't know distant counteroffensive or something like that it means they really are the ukrainians really are probably very thin on the front lines and that they are committing those newly mobilized convict troops even if it is you know going well for them and that's been a successful project yeah I think that they are probably a little thinner than we would like them to be from a pro-Ukrainian point of view"