Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:18⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to an ATPG of Politics video - a Ukraine War News Update for 28th May 2024 and plays some Jack Johnson.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report - High Russian Losses
🎦 00:18-01:35⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses, noting that these should be treated with caution, but highlighting the high numbers:
- Personnel: High again, potentially indicating a challenging day for the Russians
- Tanks: 21 destroyed, damaged, abandoned, or captured, a significant increase from previous days
- Armoured personnel carriers: 40 destroyed, more than double the average
- Artillery systems: 48 destroyed, almost three times the average
Jonathan points out the need to assess the reliability of these figures and explore supporting evidence.
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Intelligence Reports and Visual Confirmation
🎦 01:35-04:50⏩
Jonathan discusses the challenge of verifying Ukrainian General Staff figures, particularly regarding personnel losses. He highlights:
- UK Defence Journal article: Aligns with Ukrainian claims of approximately 450,000 Russian personnel losses.
- Philip O'Brien: Notes that Ukrainian figures, including killed in action (KIA) and seriously wounded, match information from UK, French, and German intelligence.
Jonathan emphasizes that these intelligence agencies likely rely heavily on Ukrainian data. He acknowledges the difficulty of independent verification, particularly for personnel losses, as foreign observers lack direct access to the front lines or Ukrainian command centers. He suggests that intelligence agencies may employ satellite imagery to confirm vehicle losses but estimating personnel losses is more complex. Despite these limitations, Jonathan considers the alignment between Ukrainian claims and intelligence assessments as a significant data point. He acknowledges that while not perfect, it contributes to a broader understanding of the situation.
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Evidence of Russian Struggles
🎦 04:50-10:02⏩
Jonathan presents evidence suggesting Russian struggles, including:
- Overcrowded hospital in Belgorod: A video, quickly deleted, indicates a surge in Russian casualties likely from fighting in the Kharkiv region.
- Refusal to return to combat: Reports from Yakutsk describe Russian soldiers being detained and mistreated for refusing to fight after being wounded, highlighting low morale and potential manpower issues.
- Increased reliance on foreign recruits: Jonathan observes a growing number of non-Russian soldiers in footage from the front lines. He connects this to Russia's activities in the Sahel region, suggesting it serves as a source of recruits motivated by financial incentives.
Jonathan highlights the Kremlin's likely desire to avoid domestic mobilization due to potential political backlash and its impact on morale. He concludes that Russia's reliance on foreign fighters presents a challenge for Ukraine, which has fewer opportunities for such recruitment.
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Russian Equipment Losses and Effectiveness
🎦 10:02-14:15⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to Russian equipment losses and their effectiveness. He discusses:
- 47th Assault Brigade's drone operators: Claim to destroy five enemy howitzers daily, highlighting the impact of drone warfare and providing a data point for artillery losses, an area often lacking visual confirmation.
- Limitations of visual confirmation: Jonathan explains that organizations like Oryx, which visually confirms military equipment losses, primarily focus on front-line areas visible in satellite imagery. This makes verifying artillery losses, typically positioned farther back, more challenging.
- Andrew Perpetua's observations: Jonathan shares Andrew Perpetua's satirical commentary on the performance of Soviet-era equipment used by Russia, citing examples of inaccurate targeting and technical malfunctions.
Jonathan notes the stark contrast between the effectiveness of older US missiles, like the ATACMS, and Russia's more modern air defense systems, further emphasizing potential technological disparities.
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Russian Missile Strike in Snihurivka, Kherson Oblast
🎦 14:15-15:27⏩
Jonathan reports on a Russian missile strike on a civilian target in Snihurivka, Kherson Oblast:
- Target: A self-service car wash, indicating a deliberate attack on civilian infrastructure.
- Casualties: Initially reported as one girl seriously wounded, but later updates confirm three dead and six wounded, highlighting the tragic consequences of such attacks.
Jonathan expresses his condemnation of the attack, particularly as he has personal connections to the village.
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Fires in Russia
🎦 15:27-16:53⏩
Jonathan reports on a series of fires in Russia:
- Moscow: Ten cars burned in a parking lot. While the cause is unknown, Jonathan notes the increasing frequency of fires in Russia.
- Azov-Don grain terminal: A fire broke out at the Azov-Don grain terminal in the Rostov region, near the border with Ukraine. The cause of this fire is also unknown.
Jonathan speculates that these fires could be attributed to various factors, including insurance fraud, partisan activity, or accidents, but lacks concrete information.
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Russian Drone and Missile Attacks
🎦 16:53-18:37⏩
Jonathan discusses recent Russian drone and missile attacks:
- Overnight drone attack: Three attack drones targeting Ukraine were shot down over Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia.
- Russian drone production: Jonathan cites claims that Russia is producing a large number of Shahed-type drones, possibly as many as 6,000 per year at a facility in Tatarstan.
- Strike on Borova: Russian forces attacked Borova on the Oskil River, causing significant damage to residential buildings and civilian infrastructure.
Ukrainian Strike on Luhansk Airbase
🎦 19:45-22:35⏩
Jonathan details a significant Ukrainian strike on an airbase in Luhansk:
- Target: While the specific target remains unconfirmed, reports from Luhansk residents suggest it was an air defense system rather than the airfield itself.
- Impact: The strike resulted in massive fires and potentially ignited a wildfire in the surrounding area.
- Analysis: Jonathan speculates that the destruction of the air defense system puts the airfield at greater risk of future attacks, potentially limiting Russian air operations in the region.
Other Ukrainian Strikes and Activities
🎦 22:35-26:14⏩
Jonathan covers additional Ukrainian strikes and military activities:
- Taganrog aircraft repair plant: A fire, potentially caused by a Ukrainian strike, was reported at the 325th aircraft repair plant in Taganrog, Russia.
- Drone shot down near Moscow: Russian air defense intercepted a Ukrainian drone near Moscow, demonstrating Ukraine's capability to conduct such operations.
- Repeated attacks on Armavir radar station: Ukrainian drones targeted a Russian over-the-horizon radar station in Armavir for the second time in recent days, indicating its strategic importance.
- Possible drone attack on Putin's palace: Unconfirmed reports suggest that Ukrainian drones may have targeted one of Putin's palaces on the Black Sea coast, highlighting Ukraine's willingness to conduct symbolic attacks.
Jonathan emphasizes that these incidents often go unreported or emerge later, suggesting that Ukraine is actively engaging in offensive operations beyond major drone strikes.
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Russian Guided Bomb Wreckage Found
🎦 26:14-26:59⏩
Jonathan discusses the discovery of wreckage from a new Russian UMPD D-30SN guided bomb. This type of bomb is believed to have been used in the attack on the Epicentre shopping mall in Kharkiv.
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Starokostyantyniv Air Base Updates
🎦 26:59-29:05⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the Starokostyantyniv Air Base in western Ukraine:
- Significance: The base is crucial for Ukrainian air operations, as it's the likely launch site for Storm Shadow and SCALP cruise missiles carried by Ukrainian Su-24s and potentially MiG-29s.
- Recent attacks: The base has been repeatedly targeted by Russian forces, potentially in anticipation of the arrival of F-16 fighter jets, which could also operate from this location.
- Satellite imagery analysis: While satellite images confirm some damage to the base, it remains unclear whether operational aircraft were affected. Jonathan cites analysis suggesting that the damaged aircraft might have been decommissioned units used for spare parts or decoys.
Analysis of the Kharkiv Offensive and Ukrainian Vulnerability
🎦 29:05-33:46⏩
Jonathan discusses the ongoing Russian offensive in Kharkiv Oblast and its implications for Ukrainian vulnerability:
- British intelligence assessment: UK intelligence reports that Russia has not achieved its objectives in the Kharkiv offensive.
- Perun's analysis: Jonathan references a video by military analyst Perun, who argues that the offensive marks the beginning of a period of Ukrainian vulnerability.
- Jonathan's counter-argument: Jonathan disagrees with Perun's assessment, believing that Ukraine's most vulnerable period occurred earlier, marked by a decrease in US support and culminating in the Russian attacks around Avdiivka.
- Ukraine's improving position: Jonathan observes that Ukraine's situation has improved in recent weeks due to increased military aid from the West, ongoing mobilization efforts, and the anticipated arrival of F-16 fighter jets.
Jonathan contends that Russia missed a critical opportunity to capitalize on Ukraine's previous vulnerability and that their chances of achieving a decisive breakthrough are diminishing as Ukraine's capabilities improve.
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Upcoming Extra Content
🎦 33:46-34:08⏩
Jonathan mentions plans to release an "Extra" segment covering a recent interview and analysis by Lucy and Kim, which explores Ukrainian public opinion on the war.
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The Rise of AI-Generated Disinformation
🎦 34:08-37:02⏩
Jonathan raises concerns about the growing threat of AI-generated disinformation on social media platforms:
- Shashank Joshi's experience: The Economist's defense editor, Shashank Joshi, encountered an AI-generated Twitter account impersonating him with a profile picture and background strikingly similar to his own.
- Implications: Jonathan expresses alarm over the potential of AI to create sophisticated disinformation campaigns by generating fake profiles and tailoring their messaging to specific targets or narratives.
He highlights the increasing difficulty in discerning genuine interactions from AI-driven manipulation and encourages viewers to be vigilant about online information.
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Wrap up
🎦 37:02-37:08⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, expresses gratitude for their support, and bids them farewell.
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"So more and more we are seeing foreigners drafted in to do the fighting for the Russians because the Russians are refusing to do so and the Russian, the Kremlin doesn't want the popularity issue of mobilising internally"
