Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitics News
Table of Contents 📖
"Russia partly supposedly invaded Ukraine to get rid of the ukraine nazis ukraine apart appalling something like less than three percent far right um electorate sympathies in ukraine like they didn't get enough in the far right in ukraine for them to get any uh not enough to feature in the elections right and so everyone's like oh no far right's really big in ukraine and then everyone votes in europe and a far right a right across europe no one has a right to complain about the far right in ukraine no one is is not good enough least of all the russians who say oh look at the ukraine nazis in ukraine meanwhile funding or amplifying the voices of the far right in europe is absolutely in well it's very clever you can argue, from Russia, of course."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:19⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video on the 1st July 2024 and explains that as there isn't a lot of news about Military Aid, this will be covered in this video along with Geopolitics news.
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Leopard 2 Tank Deliveries Update
🎦 00:19-02:18⏩
Jonathan shares an update from Jeff2146 about Leopard 2 tank deliveries. Out of the 104 pledged, 71 have been delivered. Canada, Germany, Norway, Poland, Spain and Sweden have all delivered tanks. Germany is also refurbishing some tanks from other countries such as Spain (at a cost of 1 million euros per tank)
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NATO shares AWACS intel with Ukraine
🎦 02:18-03:48⏩
A report from UK Defence Journal confirms that NATO is sharing AWACS data with Ukraine to help repel Russian attacks, which Jonathan points out is nothing new, but that it's good to have confirmation. He goes on to highlight the asymmetry that the Ukrainians have had access to regarding time-sensitive intel and satellite data from the US, UK and France and speculates that Russia have been able to strike fairly well recently because of the intelligence they're getting from China. He believes that Russian satellites are not as good and refers to detailed reports he was given over a year ago that support this view.
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Ukrainian singer raises money for 60 vehicles
🎦 03:48-04:06⏩
Jonathan shares a video showing 60 vehicles bought for the Ukrainian armed forces after being paid for by Irina Fedyshin, a Ukrainian singer, from money raised during her concerts.
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Jonathan dreams of being a billionaire
🎦 04:06-05:11⏩
Jonathan jokes about being a billionaire and how he would be doing things differently to Elon Musk if he owned Twitter. He reads a comment from user Max 24 reporting that Zelensky has stated that North Korea has about 5 million shells and how Jonathan thinks Russia will have probably exhausted this supply already.
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Norway joins 14th package of EU sanctions
🎦 05:11-06:40⏩
Although not a member of the EU, Norway's Foreign Ministry has announced that it has joined the 14th package of EU sanctions. The IMF has downgraded Ukraine's economic growth over the next 2 years and Jonathan explains that the economic impacts are already being felt by Ukraine and how the IMF view is probably due to energy inconsistencies caused by Russian attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure.
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Ukraine has 1 month to avoid default
🎦 06:40-07:13⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine has 1 month to agree a debt restructuring deal with investors to avoid defaulting, citing an article from The Economist which states that in the long run this would be a disaster for Ukraine's recovery.
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Russia's economy is worsening
🎦 07:13-09:19⏩
Despite predictions of its imminent collapse since 2014, Jonathan shares data showing that Russia's economy is worsening and how profits in Russia's coal mining sector have fallen by 93% to just 161.2 million dollars in the first 4 months of 2024, leading to headlines such as "Russia's key coal industry on verge of financial collapse". Jonathan believes that whilst these things take time, Russia is getting to the point where it can no longer afford to prosecute the war. He shares further data showing that Russia's largest aircraft producer, United Aircraft Corporation (UAC), has announced record losses with an increase in net loss of 47% in 2023 to 3.48 billion rubles, concluding that things are not looking good and that even if Russia is still making profits, the lower-than-expected profits will affect tax income and impact Russia's ability to fund the war.
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Russia may have mined EU submarine infrastructure
🎦 09:19-12:01⏩
Citing a report from British newspaper The Times, Jonathan voices NATO concerns that Russia may have mined critical EU submarine infrastructure in the North Sea including oil & gas rigs, pipelines and telecoms cables. He explains that data about these fears has been obtained from the companies that manage them. Although no evidence of cable mining was found in Belgian or Dutch waters, explosives were found on one of the British cables at the beginning of the war. Analysis of ship logs from a Belgian newspaper found that more than 160 non-military Russian vessels have been involved in 945 suspicious activities in the North Sea in the last decade, with most taking place near pipelines or telecoms cables. This has led journalists to emphasize that Russia's knowledge of submarine infrastructure would be crucial if they wanted to sabotage systems or manipulate communications cables, with some observers believing that the scale of Russian operations has reached levels not seen since the cold war.
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UK General Election
🎦 12:01-13:27⏩
Jonathan announces that he'll be running two live streams about the upcoming UK General Election - one on Wednesday night with his friends to review the manifestos and another on Thursday night where he'll be going to the pub with the Rugby Dads to discuss the election, before coming home to host another livestream with a friend to review the early election results. Jonathan stresses how important the election is, reminding viewers that his is a geopolitics channel.
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David Cameron accused of hypocrisy about Labour's defence policy
🎦 13:27-18:12⏩
Jonathan shares a tweet from Edward Stringer, a retired RAF Air Marshall, calling David Cameron, the UK's foreign minister, shameless for claiming that Kier Starmer, the leader of the Labour Party, is in danger of weakening Britain's defences if he wins the next election. Jonathan highlights how Cameron was recently caught in a hoax call with Russian pranksters pretending to be Petro Poroshenko where he can be heard saying that the Labour party would continue the same approach as the Conservative party towards Ukraine. Defence analysts believe that Cameron's comments are shameless politicising.
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Led By Donkeys gatecrash Farage Rally with Picture of Putin
🎦 18:12-21:51⏩
Jonathan describes Led By Donkeys as a left-wing group who are known for their anti-brexit, anti-UKIP and anti-reform party stunts. He shares a video of Led By Donkeys gatecrashing a Nigel Farage rally with a picture of Putin after Farage had just finished telling the audience how proud of Britain they should be. He reads out comments made by Farage blaming the West for the illegal invasion of Ukraine and how Putin is the world leader he most admires.
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Carol Cadwalladr calls out Farage about Russian Interference in Brexit Vote
🎦 21:51-27:26⏩
Jonathan talks about journalist Carol Cadwalladr's work and how she was sued for libel by Aaron Banks, a British businessman, after she claimed he had lied about receiving money from Russia to support the Brexit campaign. He explains that although Banks initially won, Cadwalladr won on appeal. He shares a tweet showing how Farage has used Cadwalladr as a punchbag at his rally and how she responds by asking when Labour will commit to investigating foreign interference in UK politics. He describes how the UK Government has refused to publish a report about Russian interference in the Brexit vote because it would call the legitimacy of the result into question. He concludes by reminding viewers that it is in Russia's interest to see a divided Europe.
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Rage Farming: How anger makes money on Social Media
🎦 27:26-28:35⏩
Jonathan shares a tweet from Chris O'Wickey highlighting how rage farming on social media is used by grifters to make money and how it has led to a rise in the right wing across Europe. He explains that the more outrageous or controversial a post or tweet, the more clicks it will generate. Jonathan refers to Russell Howard, a British comedian who did a comedy sketch about how Facebook makes money from rage farming.
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Cambodian Putinist arrested in Rome
🎦 28:35-30:33⏩
Jonathan shares the news that a Cambodian Putinist, who has been living in Rome and was behind Radio Genoa, a race-baiting account on Twitter, has been arrested by the Italian military police. He explains how the account has been trying to undermine the EU by inflaming tensions about migration and pitting Europeans against each other.
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Viktor Orban forms new far-right group in European Parliament
🎦 30:33-32:16⏩
Jonathan reports that Viktor Orban, the Hungarian Prime Minister, has created a new far-right group within the European Parliament. Having been kicked out of a previous group that included Marine Le Pen, Orban approached the ECR and ID groups but was rejected, so has now decided to form a new group with the Austrian Freedom Party and former Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis.
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Hungary assumes the Presidency of the EU
🎦 32:16-32:27⏩
Hungary assumed the Presidency of the EU on July 1st, with Orban announcing that his priorities will include strengthening the EU's defence policy, fighting illegal migration, addressing demographic issues, and supporting farmers and agriculture, under the slogan, "Make Europe Great Again".
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French Parliamentary Elections - Round 1 Results
🎦 32:27-39:32⏩
In the first round of the French Parliamentary elections, Marine Le Pen's National Rally party won 33% of the vote, the left-wing NUPES alliance won 28% and Macron's Ensemble coalition won 20%. Although the final makeup of the 577-seat parliament won't be known until after the second round of voting, the result marks the first time that the National Rally has won more than 20% of the vote in a parliamentary election. Jonathan expresses his concern and compares it to the BNP, the British National Party, winning a third of the votes in a UK general election. He believes that tactical voting, known as the Republican Front, is likely to play a role in the second round of voting, but that there is some voter fatigue, with some voters reluctant to vote tactically because it means constantly voting against parties rather than for parties that they support. Jonathan analyses the results and believes that the Republicans (centre-right) have probably lost about 4% of their vote to the National Rally and 4% of the centrist vote has also gone to Le Pen.
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Russia's support of Far Right undermines justification for invading Ukraine
🎦 39:32-40:55⏩
Jonathan shares a tweet from War Translated highlighting how Russia's claim that it invaded Ukraine to rid it of Nazis doesn't stand up to scrutiny given how much support Russia provides to far-right groups across Europe. The tweet points out that far-right groups in Ukraine only accounted for less than 3% of the electorate and were not even able to field any candidates. He concludes that it is disingenuous and morally egregious for Russia to condemn the far right in Ukraine, whilst actively supporting and funding far-right groups in the rest of Europe.
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Impact of French Election Results on Ukraine
🎦 40:55-41:30⏩
Jonathan shares concerns about the impact of a National Rally government on support for Ukraine, pointing out that it could affect the delivery of promised weapons systems such as the Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets and how a future government led by Jordan Bardella could restrict funding.
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Marine Le Pen, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin - A Triumvirate of Evil?
🎦 41:30-42:21⏩
Jonathan reminds viewers that Marine Le Pen has previously stated that she shares the same policies as Putin and Trump, which gives an indication of her political beliefs.
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Expert Analysis of the French Election Results
🎦 42:21-49:36⏩
Jonathan shares expert analysis about the election results from various sources:
- Which Ever Rockman (French Managing Director of Eurasia Group): Believes that regardless of what happens, France's influence as a G7 and UN member and its support for Ukraine has been weakened. He thinks that the best-case scenario is that France will be largely rudderless for the next year, but that Macron's reputation has been severely damaged.
- Yoni Askola (Finnish PhD candidate): Believes that Macron planned the snap election to wrongfoot Russia and not give them time to meddle in the election.
- Suspiciously Fluffy Fella: Explains that because France has a double-turn electoral system, it is unlikely that the National Rally will win a majority. Like Yoni Askola, he too believes that Macron dissolved parliament to stop Russian interference. He also highlights how important it is that far-right, populist parties are unmasked, by forcing them to face the realities of governing.
- Jonathan: Believes that Suspiciously Fluffy Fella's analysis about the media is spot on and how they have become detached from reality and tend to favour entertainment over facts. He goes on to explain how his own views have changed and that he is now more centrist. He believes that the Guardian newspaper is one of the few media outlets with any morals.
Wrap Up
🎦 49:36-50:35⏩
Jonathan apologises for the length of the video and announces that he will do a separate video about US Politics.
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