Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Counter Expectations, RU Radio, Desertions, & UK Conference
Table of Contents 📖
| Topic ID | Topic Title | Timestamp |
|---|
"The atmosphere at the Ukraine recovery conference in London is overwhelmingly upbeat."
Hello Team!
Jonathan discusses his previous video about the Kinzhal hypersonic missile attacks on the Kryvyi Rih dam. A Ukrainian presidential advisor confirmed Russia was targeting the dam, considering it a "large-scale terrorist attack" to stop the Ukrainian counter-offensive. Jonathan equates the potential damage to that of a tactical nuclear missile strike, without the global repercussions for Russia. He notes Russia appears to be targeting other dams as well, which could cause catastrophic flooding.
Return to top⤴️
Counter-offensive expectations
According to CNN, citing Western officials, the early stages of Ukraine's counter-offensive are not meeting expectations. Russian defences are well-fortified, bogging down Ukrainian armour with missiles and mines. Russian air power is also being used more effectively. Jonathan questions if this says more about unrealistic Western assessments than the actual progress. He notes the challenges posed by minefields and defences, suggesting some analysts are now facing a "dose of realism".
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian progress near Marinka
The Ukrainian Armed Forces have made progress north of Marinka, penetrating Russia's defensive line by over 1km and taking positions held by Russian troops since 2014. This creates a bigger buffer zone for Ukraine.
Return to top⤴️
Analysis of Russian losses
Jonathan analyses trends in Russian losses according to the Ukrainian General Staff. Since the start of the counter-offensive, there has been an uptick in personnel, tank, artillery, anti-aircraft system, helicopter, and vehicle/fuel tank losses for Russia. The counter-offensive is yielding results, but it remains to be seen if it will be a long, grinding process or if a major breakthrough will occur.
Return to top⤴️
Russian communication problems
Samuel Bendett shares a pro-Kremlin Telegram post detailing ongoing communication issues in the Russian forces. Key problems include the inability to reliably contact subordinates, Chinese Baofeng radios not meeting needs due to Ukrainian electronic warfare, and Russian Azart radio systems still not working well. The post notes Ukraine's use of electronic warfare decoys and monitoring of Russian officer Telegram chats. Massive OPSEC issues persist 1.5 years into the invasion. Some Russian units are resorting to using old field telephone lines for wired communication.
Return to top⤴️
Ukraine Recovery Conference in London
Economist Timothy Miloanov shares key points from the upbeat Ukraine Recovery Conference in London:
- UK PM Rishi Sunak highlighted Ukraine's economic potential and resilience
- UK and allies reaffirm long-term support for Ukraine's defence and recovery
- Substantial financial commitments made, including $3 billion in UK loan guarantees
- Over 400 businesses have signed up to the Ukraine Business Compact
- A new insurance framework will boost investor confidence in Ukraine
The conference aimed to mobilise governments, financial institutions and businesses to support Ukraine's future recovery and success.
Return to top⤴️
Desertions from Russian airborne forces
A leaked document suggests the Russian army is facing increased desertions, with hundreds of men deserting from the VDV airborne forces since February 2023. Out of 325 AWOL cases, 228 men were recovered while 97 remain wanted. This represents nearly 1% of the estimated 40-45,000 strong VDV. The elite unit has suffered heavy casualties and declining morale, with reports of in-fighting and deaths among soldiers. The VDV's force quality has deteriorated as they have had to take on potentially undertrained recruits to replenish numbers.
Return to top⤴️
Wrap up
Jonathan mentions the reported death of Semyon Pegov, a Russian ultra-nationalist military blogger known as Wargonzo, who was allegedly shot in a trench. He plans to cover this in more detail in his next video. If confirmed, Pegov's death would be an embarrassing loss for Russia's information campaign. Jonathan thanks viewers for their support and wraps up the update.
Return to top⤴️
