Ukraine War Update NEWS (20231119a): Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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"It's looking at data like this that prompts the question whose side are you on, are you on the right side?"
Hello Team!
Jonathan introduces the video, which is part 1 of the Ukraine War News Update for November 19, 2023. He mentions having a brief conversation with someone who came to pick up an item he posted on Freecycle, and the person noticed the Ukraine flag in Jonathan's window and showed his support by revealing a tattoo of the Ukrainian trident.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian losses
- Ukrainian General Staff figures show significant Russian losses, including 1,190 personnel, 13 tanks, 25 APVs, 18 artillery pieces, and more
- Even taking 30% off these figures, the losses are still problematic for Russia
- Andrew Perpetua, who tracks losses on both sides using open source data, reports losses that are closer to parity but still show Russia losing more equipment of higher value
Ukrainian losses
- Over 30,000 Ukrainian defenders have been killed in the war according to the Memory Book project, which tracks and verifies Ukrainian casualties using open source data
- The project has processed information on more than 24,000 fallen Ukrainian soldiers, law enforcement officers and volunteers as of early November 2023
- Some US analysts have previously suggested that up to 70,000 Ukrainians may have died in the conflict
Other news
- 20 Russian soldiers from the 144th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade deserted in the Kherson region, possibly indicating difficulties for Russian forces in the area
- A Ukrainian sniper set a new world record, accurately hitting a target at a distance of 3,800 meters (almost 4 km) using a Horizons Lord sniper rifle
- Ukraine has evidence of 109,000 Russian war crimes according to the Prosecutor General, highlighting the importance of documenting and prosecuting each incident
- British intelligence suggests Russia may bring back the Soviet-era M55 Mystic B high-altitude reconnaissance aircraft to bolster its limited ISTAR capabilities over Ukraine
- Rumors persist that Putin has body doubles, with a Japanese TV network using AI to analyze facial features, gait, and speech, concluding there is a high probability of at least two body doubles being used
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for their support and encourages them to like, subscribe, and share the video. He signs off with "toodle pips" and promises to speak to the audience again soon.
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