Ukraine War Update NEWS (20231030a): Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"Rumours about Putin's death again. Yes, these are not news, this is not news but rumours, but this can bring a smile to your face."
Hello Team!
Jonathan is unwell with an illness that has rendered him unable to walk, but will still aim to produce content. He apologises in advance if his output is affected.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- Ukrainian General Staff figures for 29/10/2023: 860 Russian personnel losses (high for recent months), 15 tanks, 17 APVs, 14 artillery systems, 1 anti-aircraft system, 1 aircraft, 20 drones, 23 vehicles/fuel tanks, 2 pieces of special equipment
- Since 10/10/2023, 6,500 Russian soldiers have been killed in the Avdiivka area according to a Ukrainian spokesperson
- Andrew Perpetua noted significant Russian equipment losses in the last 24 hours, with a 7:1 ratio of Russian to Ukrainian losses
Russian Tank Losses Analysis
An analysis by Richard Vereka shows Russia is running out of their modern T-80 and T-90 tanks, with a higher proportion of older T-72 tanks being lost in October 2023 compared to previous months. This suggests Russia may be holding back their best tanks due to low numbers or being overly cautious.
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Fires/Attacks in Russia
- Oil refinery fire in Komi Republic killed 1 and injured 2
- Oil refinery in Krasnodar attacked by Ukrainian drones according to Ukraine's SBU
- Warehouse fire in Izhevsk covering 3,800 square metres
- Gas station tank exploded near Sheremetyevo airport in Moscow
Overnight Missile Attacks
- 12 Shahed drones and 2 Kh-59 cruise missiles launched at Ukraine overnight, all shot down by air defences
- 6 Onyx missiles likely used in an attack on Odesa, hitting a ship repair site
- Crimea attacked by Ukraine using 2 ATACMS missiles, 3 unmanned boats and possibly Storm Shadow missiles. 17 Russian casualties and 5 vehicles destroyed at a Russian air defence regiment.
Rumours of Putin's Death
Unverified rumours are circulating that Putin died on the evening of 26/10/2023 after a long battle with cancer. The rumours claim Israeli doctors had been treating him but stopped in early 2023. While highly speculative, Jonathan notes Putin has not appeared publicly to dispel the rumours. He stresses these are just rumours to be taken with a "bucket load of salt".
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Anti-Semitism in Russia
- Mob searching for Jewish people at an airport in Dagestan, with no consequences
- Jewish cultural centre arsoned in Nalchik, with "Death to Jews" graffitied
- Some pushback in Russia over the poor optics rather than the immorality
- Propagandist Alexander Kots suggested targeting Jews in Ukraine instead
- Hypocrisy from Russia over previous anti-Israel sentiments
Russian War Crimes
In Russian-occupied Volnovakha, Kadyrovite soldiers murdered a Ukrainian family of 9, including children, for refusing to surrender their home during a birthday celebration. Graphic photos of the massacre are circulating on social media.
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Russian Universities Silenced
The UK Defence Ministry reports Russia's Education Ministry has instructed universities not to discuss negative political, economic and social trends in the country. Russia has largely hidden its true economic data since the war began.
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Russian Military Leadership Changes
Colonel Makarevich, commander of the Russian Dnipro grouping in southern Ukraine, has been replaced by Colonel General Toplinsky, formerly commander of the Russian Airborne Forces. Makarevich was allegedly removed due to discrepancies between his reports and the reality on the ground. Some analysts believe Toplinsky may not improve the situation.
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Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for their support and will aim to produce a second video later if his health allows. He signs off with "toodlepips".
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