Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News

"The West's most significant mistake in this war has been the consistent underutilization of its vast industrial strength."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:37⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics update, mentioning that his first video of the day was restricted. He encourages viewers to share restricted videos to counteract the lack of algorithmic promotion.

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US approves $138m sustainment package for Hawk Phase 3 systems

🎦 00:37-02:37⏩

The US State Department approves a $138 million package to sustain and overhaul Ukraine's Hawk Phase 3 air defence missile launchers. Jonathan discusses the history of the Hawk system and its relevance to Ukraine. He highlights the importance of maintenance and training for effective operation of these systems.

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US provides $138m in funding for Hawk sustainment from 'Countering Russian Influence Fund'

🎦 02:37-03:11⏩

Jonathan highlights that the $138 million for the Hawk system overhaul is being sourced from a 'Countering Russian Influence Fund' within the 2024 State and Foreign Operations Act, separate from regular military aid packages.

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Jonathan's observations on quantifying military aid

🎦 03:11-04:16⏩

Jonathan observes that countries assist Ukraine in ways not always reflected in financial aid packages, such as intelligence sharing, sanctions enforcement, and diplomatic efforts. He acknowledges the US's contribution but criticises the delay in the $60 billion aid package. He believes the US is likely offsetting this delay through less visible forms of support.

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US supplies Ukraine with 5,000 confiscated Iranian weapons

🎦 04:16-05:18⏩

Jonathan reveals that the US has supplied Ukraine with 5,000 AK-47s, machine guns, sniper rifles, RPG-7s, and ammunition seized from Iranian smugglers. He explains that these weapons were intended for the Houthis in Yemen in violation of UN Security Council resolutions.

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Jonathan's frustration with piecemeal Western missile supplies; calls for increased production and supply of Storm Shadows

🎦 05:18-07:33⏩

Jonathan expresses frustration with the West's approach to supplying long-range missiles like Storm Shadows. He argues for a more proactive strategy of placing large orders for these missiles to secure lower unit costs and maintain a steady supply to Ukraine.

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Germany proposes a special fund to purchase Patriot systems for Ukraine

🎦 07:33-09:12⏩

Jonathan discusses Germany's proposal for a special fund to acquire and provide Patriot missile systems to Ukraine. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock suggests exploring existing Patriot systems worldwide, including potentially from Jordan and Qatar. Jonathan notes Germany's previous efforts in acquiring Gepard and Cheetah anti-aircraft systems from these countries for Ukraine.

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Raytheon's Patriot production capacity and potential for expansion

🎦 09:12-10:59⏩

Jonathan reports that Raytheon, the manufacturer of the Patriot missile system, has a production capacity of one battery per month. He expresses disappointment that the Biden administration hasn't utilised USAI funds to increase production and secure more Patriot systems for Ukraine, mirroring his previous point about Storm Shadow missiles. He provides detailed figures on the production rates of various Patriot missile types (Pac-3 MSE, Pac-2 GEM-T).

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Japan and the US discuss expanding defence co-production, including Patriot missiles

🎦 10:59-11:21⏩

Jonathan highlights discussions between the US and Japan regarding the expansion of defence co-production, including potentially Patriot missiles. He notes Japan's previous agreement to sell Patriot missiles back to the US Army to replenish stocks sent to Ukraine.

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Critique of the West's "underutilization" of its industrial strength

🎦 11:30-13:41⏩

Jonathan, quoting Fabian Hoffmann, criticises the West for not fully leveraging its industrial capacity to support Ukraine. He argues that Russia is actively exploiting the West's reluctance to commit fully, highlighting Russia's efforts to undermine Western unity. He emphasizes the need for greater political will to increase military support for Ukraine.

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Zelensky requests 7 Patriot batteries; Borrell admits Europe is ill-prepared for war

🎦 13:41-14:14⏩

Jonathan reports that Ukrainian President Zelensky has requested seven Patriot batteries to bolster Ukraine's air defences. He quotes EU High Representative Josep Borrell, who admits that Europe is currently ill-prepared for a larger conflict.

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US-made drones underperform in Ukraine; Ukraine boosts domestic drone production

🎦 14:14-16:31⏩

Jonathan discusses a Wall Street Journal article reporting on the underwhelming performance of US-made drones in Ukraine. He notes that these drones are considered expensive, prone to glitches, and vulnerable to Russian electronic warfare. In contrast, he highlights Ukraine's growing reliance on cheaper and more effective Chinese-made drones and their push for domestic drone production.

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Jonathan's analysis of the drone situation and opportunities for US manufacturers

🎦 16:31-17:22⏩

Jonathan sees the underperformance of US drones as an opportunity for improvement. He believes this experience will drive innovation and better designs. He acknowledges China's manufacturing advantage but believes US manufacturers can adapt and compete.

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Zelensky's risky statement about US aid and its implications

🎦 17:22-18:17⏩

Jonathan analyses Zelensky's recent statement that Ukraine cannot win without US aid. He acknowledges the risk of this statement, potentially strengthening the resolve of US lawmakers opposed to aiding Ukraine. He speculates that Zelensky's statement stems from desperation due to the precarious situation in Ukraine and mounting domestic pressure.

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Zelensky's miscalculations and the current state of the war

🎦 18:17-20:22⏩

Jonathan believes Zelensky might have misjudged Russia's willingness to absorb losses and the resilience of their military. He cites Zaluzhny's admission that Ukraine had underestimated Russia's manpower and material reserves. Jonathan expresses concern about the immense pressure Zelensky is facing and the West's slow response to provide crucial aid.

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Schultz's reluctance to provide Taurus missiles; Zelensky exposes reasoning

🎦 20:22-22:18⏩

Jonathan examines Zelensky's claim that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is hesitant to provide Taurus missiles because he fears they might fall into Russian hands, thus compromising Germany's most advanced weapon technology. Jonathan questions the validity of this reasoning, highlighting the discrepancy between Scholz's public stance on supporting Ukraine and his reluctance to provide this critical weapon system.

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Germany's increasing military aid to Ukraine in Q1 2024

🎦 22:18-23:57⏩

Jonathan discusses Germany's significant increase in military aid to Ukraine, with arms exports totalling €4.9 billion in the first quarter of 2024, 72% of which (€3.5 billion) was directed to Ukraine. This highlights Germany's growing role in supporting Ukraine's defence. He lists some of the recently delivered military equipment, including outboard motors, infrared devices, anti-drone equipment, ammunition, artillery shells, assault rifles, sniper rifles, demining equipment, drones (RQ-35 Hydron and Vector).

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Ukraine's parliament approves bill to allow recruitment of minor offenders

🎦 23:57-25:01⏩

Jonathan discusses the Ukrainian parliament's approval of a bill allowing the recruitment of individuals convicted of minor offences into the military. This move, while potentially controversial, aims to bolster Ukraine's fighting force. He notes that this does not include individuals convicted of serious crimes.

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Russia denies May mobilization; UK intelligence reports ongoing conscription

🎦 25:01-27:29⏩

Jonathan reports on Russia's denial of plans for a military mobilisation in May, quoting the head of the Russian State Duma Defence Committee. He contrasts this with UK intelligence reports indicating that Russia continues its regular conscription efforts. He outlines the details of Russia's spring conscription, which aims to enlist 150,000 individuals aged 18-30. He explains the distinction between conscripts, who are not currently being deployed to Ukraine, and contract soldiers.

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Analysis of the Potential Impact of Russian Mobilization

🎦 27:29-29:15⏩

Jonathan analyses the potential consequences of a large-scale Russian mobilisation, arguing that it would exacerbate existing labour shortages, fuel inflation, strain public finances, and potentially lead to social unrest. He believes that while mobilisation might seem necessary for Russia's war effort, it could have severe long-term economic and social ramifications.

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Wrap up

🎦 29:15-29:18⏩

Jonathan concludes the video by thanking viewers for watching and asking for their thoughts. He encourages viewers to like, subscribe, and share the video.

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