Ukraine Conflict - Full Frontline Update

"And although the Russians appear to be taking Crinky back and pushing the Ukrainians out more and more from there, although we'll talk about this a little bit later, they are taking huge losses in the area."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:49⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to a late-night frontline update, apologising for the delay due to the Christmas season. He also mentions JR's absence due to COVID and expresses his appreciation for JR's assistance with the mapping.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Northeastern Sector (Kupiansk, Svatove-Kreminna line)

🎦 00:49-01:34⏩

Jonathan reports no significant changes in the Kupiansk or Svatove-Kreminna areas based on the available mapping data.

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Kreminna: Russian Advance West of Kreminna

🎦 01:34-02:52⏩

Jonathan observes a significant Russian advance west of Kreminna, towards Terny and Tors'k. He compares different mapping sources (Andrew Perpetua and Suret Maps), noting that Suret Maps tends to be quicker in reflecting gains and sometimes overzealous. Despite potential overestimations, Jonathan acknowledges that Suret Maps' assessments often prove correct eventually.

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Bakhmut: Russian Gains near Soledar, Spirne, and Berestove

🎦 02:52-05:05⏩

Jonathan describes Russian gains around Bakhmut, specifically in the areas of Vesele (near Spirne) and Berestove. He points out that the Russians are advancing northwest of Berestove and along the railway towards Vyimka. Jonathan notes the slow progress made by Russian forces, highlighting the considerable time taken to secure these gains. He also mentions the capture of several Russians by Ukrainian forces in the Spirne-Vesele area.

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Bakhmut: Discussion on Russian and Ukrainian Tactics

🎦 05:05-08:28⏩

Jonathan discusses the dynamics of the conflict, acknowledging reports of Ukrainian success in recapturing trench lines and repelling Russian attacks. He points out the Russian advantage in sheer numbers, allowing them to sustain offensive operations despite losses. He mentions reports of Russia increasingly relying on conventional forces due to a shortage of Storm-Z units. He delves into the ongoing debate surrounding Russian reserves, suggesting that while reserves exist, they may lack experience. He cites reports of Russia redeploying troops from Belarus and continuously feeding in new conscripts and mobilised personnel. Jonathan analyses the significance of troop movements, suggesting that the fighting in Kherson (around the Kinburn Spit) serves as a strategic distraction, drawing Russian forces away from other fronts. He highlights the fluidity of the situation, where gains and losses can be temporary, and the difficulty in definitively assessing the impact of individual engagements.

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Avdiivka: Ukrainian Resistance and the Role of Bradleys

🎦 08:28-10:46⏩

Moving on to Avdiivka, Jonathan notes the absence of changes on the frontline maps, acknowledging the ongoing intense fighting. He highlights reports of the Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade effectively utilizing Bradley fighting vehicles to counter Russian assaults, particularly around Stepova, north of Avdiivka.

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Donetsk: Fighting near Mariinka

🎦 10:46-11:08⏩

Jonathan briefly mentions the heavy fighting taking place near Mariinka, where Russian forces are attempting to advance westward.

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Velyka Novosilka: Novomayorske and Novomykhailivka

🎦 11:08-17:18⏩

Jonathan shifts focus to Novomykhailivka, analysing the discrepancies between different mapping sources, particularly regarding Ukrainian counterattacks. He questions the accuracy of certain claims, suggesting potential overzealousness in reflecting gains. He highlights the strategic significance of fortified defensive positions like Zvereonets, which have changed hands multiple times. He expresses concern over the loss of Ukrainian control of Zvereonets, emphasising the resources required to retake such positions. Jonathan acknowledges the intensity of the fighting, with reports of relentless shelling, FPV drone attacks, and the use of guided air bombs. He cites a Ukrainian soldier's account of Russian losses and the depletion of Storm-Z units in the area, indicating the ferocity of the fighting. Jonathan shares a poignant observation of an obliterated church in the village, with its cross still standing amidst the ruins, symbolising resilience in the face of devastation.

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Southern Front: Ukrainian Counteroffensive near Robotyne

🎦 17:18-19:12⏩

Jonathan examines the situation in the southern Zaporizhia region, noting a rare instance of Ukrainian gains west of Robotyne. He speculates on Ukrainian strategy during the winter, pondering whether they will prioritize holding territory or adopt a more flexible defence. He acknowledges reports of Ukrainian withdrawals to more advantageous positions in certain areas. He contrasts the potential loss of Robotyne with the more strategically vital locations of Novomykhailivka and Avdiivka.

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Kherson: Loss of Three Russian Su-34s & Patriot Systems

🎦 19:12-26:31⏩

Jonathan discusses the downing of three Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers in the Kherson region, an incident confirmed by both Ukrainian and Russian sources. He analyses the potential involvement of Patriot air defence systems, dismissing rumours of operational F-16s as Russian propaganda. Jonathan believes that acknowledging the presence of Patriots in Ukraine would be less favourable to Russia than propagating the narrative of Western F-16 involvement. He highlights the significance of Patriot systems in countering Russian airpower, advocating for their deployment near key areas like Mykolaiv and Zaporizhzhia to protect Ukrainian forces and infrastructure. He celebrates the destruction of the Su-34s, estimating the loss at $120 million worth of military equipment, but emphasizes the more significant impact of experienced crew losses on Russian capabilities. Jonathan argues that the loss of skilled pilots will instil fear and hinder the effectiveness of Russian air operations. On a less positive note, he reports the continued Russian pressure on Ukrainian forces in the Kinburn Spit area, acknowledging the effectiveness of Russian tactics despite heavy losses. He speculates that the downing of the Su-34s might embolden Ukrainian forces to push back harder, potentially capitalising on the reduced Russian air support.

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Wrap up

🎦 26:31-26:50⏩

Jonathan concludes the update, thanking his viewers for their support and expressing his intention to get some rest after a long day.

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