Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Russia launched its full-scale invasion of ukraine in february 2022 and approximately they had approximately 780 tactical aircraft in service divided between fighter and tactical strike aircraft confirmed losses according to the most conservative estimates amount to about 90 to 100 aircraft obviously some some people saying a lot more than that with two-thirds of those being tactical strike aircraft likely Russia has lost anywhere from 130 to 150 aircraft however this does not take into account the aircraft that have been sent in for repair or those that have been cannibalized for parts for other aircraft so you've got to also remember that some of these airframes are at the end of their lifespans and they are being used consistently on missions and they will basically start failing and there will be natural attrition of aircraft that would add I remember reading to you probably over a year ago now an analysis of the natural attrition rates and how many they they would be losing in terms of aircraft given the number of flight hours that they are pumping out with them."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:09⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a new video for the 19th of March 2024. He mentions that he has a new microphone. He will be discussing the first part of the overnight news in this video.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses Claimed by Ukrainian General Staff
🎦 00:09-01:14⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's figures for Russian losses for the previous day.
- 840 personnel.
- 10 tanks
- 35 Armoured Personnel Vehicles (very high, double the average).
- 30 artillery systems (very high).
- 1 Anti-Aircraft Warfare System.
- 50 vehicles and fuel tanks (very high - likely evidence of Ukrainian FPV drone attacks)
- 4 pieces of special equipment.
Jonathan notes that the losses reported by Andrew Perpetua are in line with the Ukrainian General Staff figures, with an approximate ratio of 3:1 Russian to Ukrainian losses.
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Ukrainian Losses
🎦 01:14-02:32⏩
Jonathan lists visually confirmed Ukrainian losses:
- Australian manufactured C-RAM short-range air defence system
- Lancet kamikaze drones are still proving to be a problem for the Ukrainians with footage showing damage to Ukrainian Howitzers (M777) caused by Lancet drones.
- Older Bradley destroyed.
- Island-class patrol boat damaged by a Lancet drone.
Russian Losses
🎦 02:32-03:19⏩
Jonathan lists visually confirmed Russian losses:
- Russian Air Defence system (a Ural truck with a ZU-23-2 Anti-Aircraft autocannon) destroyed.
- 3 Russian surveillance and communications equipment destroyed.
- Baba Yaga loitering munition damaged a TOS-1A Thermobaric launcher.
- Several tanks, Infantry Fighting Vehicles (fewer than recent days), APCs, trucks, ATVs destroyed.
Artillery Losses - Visual Confirmation Disparity
🎦 03:19-04:17⏩
Jonathan notes that there seems to be a disparity between what is being claimed in terms of Russian artillery systems being destroyed by the Ukrainians, and what is being visually confirmed. He speculates that this may be due to a lack of spotter drones being used further back from the front lines where artillery is located, or that the footage isn't making it's way to those collating the data. He believes that more spotter drones are used closer to the front line with the footage from Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFVs) more likely to be uploaded/shared. That said, he believes there should be footage from the FPV drones themselves.
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Russian Personnel Losses
🎦 04:17-05:45⏩
Jonathan discusses the number of Russian personnel losses. He highlights footage from the 47th Mechanised Brigade which claims to show 21 Russian soldiers dead and 16 wounded following an attack. He states that whilst he cannot show the footage, a lot of the footage shows individual Russian soldiers being targeted by FPV drones. He notes that these soldiers are often already injured, or appear to be dead. The fact that Ukrainians are using FPVs in this way leads him to conclude a number of things:
- The Ukrainians appear to have enough drones in some areas to be able to target individuals with a single drone.
- They have enough drones to be able to "double tap" i.e. ensure a target has been destroyed.
Jonathan's conclusion: There must be areas where the Ukrainians are not short of FPV drones.
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Analysis: Russian Aircraft Losses
🎦 05:45-08:34⏩
Jonathan cites analysis by a Ukrainian scholar which suggests that Russia is losing aircraft at a rate far higher than they are able to replace them. The scholar estimates that Russia had approximately 780 tactical aircraft in service in February 2022, split between fighters and tactical strike aircraft. Conservative estimates suggest that Russia has lost between 90-100 airframes, with some suggesting this figure is far higher. The scholar estimates that 2/3 of the losses are tactical strike aircraft and states that Russia has likely lost between 130-150 aircraft in total. Important Note: This figure doesn't include aircraft that are currently in for repair, or that have been cannibalised for parts, or that have suffered from natural attrition as a result of heavy use. Russia is currently only able to produce between 20-30 aircraft each year. Whilst it is likely that Russia does have aircraft in storage that they can call upon, this is only feasible for older models such as the Su-24 and Su-25. Jonathan reiterates that it is not just the loss of airframes that is a concern for Russia - they are also losing experienced pilots which cannot be easily replaced.
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Russians Attempt to Capture Damaged Ukrainian Leopard 2A4 Tank
🎦 08:34-09:05⏩
Jonathan reports that Russian forces have been trying to evacuate a damaged Ukrainian Leopard 2A4 tank in the Avdiivka area. In attempting to tow the tank away, the Russians lost one of their own armoured vehicles. It is unclear whether the Russians were successful in removing the tank.
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Russian Freedom Legion Destroy Electronic Warfare Complex in Belgorod
🎦 09:05-10:03⏩
The Russian Freedom Legion claim to have destroyed an R-330 "Zhutel" electronic warfare complex in Krasna Yaruha in Belgorod Oblast. Jonathan notes that there are differing viewpoints about what is being achieved by the Russian Freedom Legion. He recounts a discussion he had with Greg in which he asked for his opinion on the situation on the ground, and what the view was like from those serving in the Ukrainian military. Greg reported that the Ukrainian regions of Sumy and Kharkiv, close to the border with Russia, had been subjected to heavy shelling. One village in particular has been hit by over 340 shells and flattened. Yesterday, over 230 guided glide bombs hit Sumy Oblast. Jonathan acknowledges that, whilst these bombs would be better used against military targets, at least they're being used up. That said, he questions whether the actions of the pro-Ukrainian Russians are helping or hindering Ukraine's war effort. This is something that is debated by Ukrainians.
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Activity in Belgorod
🎦 10:03-11:42⏩
Jonathan reports that there has been a lot of activity in and around Belgorod, with explosions and fires. He shows footage of damage caused to a building in Belgorod City, believed to have been caused by a Panzerfaust 3 anti-tank weapon. The question is whether pro-Ukrainian Russians would waste such a weapon on random attacks against civilians, or if they were targeting legitimate military targets in Belgorod itself. Footage shows evidence of air defence rockets that were launched in Belgorod, presumably in response to an attack, landing in the city. Jonathan highlights how close Belgorod is to the Ukrainian border - close enough to be hit by Ukrainian forces. He reiterates that there is a great deal of confusion about what exactly is happening in the region, highlighting the 340 shells that landed on the village in Sumy Oblast (Velika Pisarivka) and showing footage of the village, which has been flattened.
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Wagner Helicopter Crash in Central African Republic
🎦 11:42-12:20⏩
Jonathan reports that a Wagner Group Gazelle helicopter crashed last week in the Central African Republic, close to the border with Chad. Two Wagner mercenaries were killed in the crash and 3 more were injured and taken to hospital. Wagner also lost a Gazelle helicopter in 2021. Another helicopter (either a Mi-8 or Mi-24) is currently being repaired following an attack by rebels. Jonathan highlights how important the Wagner Group's activities in Africa are to Russia - they provide revenue to the Russian Government which is then used to fund the war in Ukraine. Any disruption to these activities is good news for Ukraine.
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Distance Strikes
🎦 12:20-14:20⏩
Jonathan reports that the Russians shelled the city of Selydove in Donetsk Oblast with two S-300 missiles. There have been no reports overnight regarding drones or missile attacks. Jonathan speculates that both sides (Russia and Ukraine) may have decided to reduce activities following the Russian Presidential Election. The Russians were thought to have been keen to secure a significant victory ahead of the election, and the Ukrainians were targeting Russian oil refineries. These attacks seem to have stopped. He notes that an Iranian manufactured Shahed-136 kamikaze drone was disabled by electronic warfare in the Vinnytsia region. In Belgorod, a rocket manufacturer, Energomash, was attacked. Jonathan speculates that, given the location of the attack, the activity in Belgorod may be targeting legitimate military and strategic assets, and not just designed to tie up troops. Jonathan states that he is unsure what the end game is for the pro-Ukrainian Russians that are operating across the border and reiterates that there are arguments for and against the activities they are carrying out.
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Explosions in Sevastopol
🎦 14:20-14:49⏩
Jonathan states that there were explosions in Sevastopol yesterday evening, but he doesn't yet have details. He believes that there were probably attacks into both Ukraine and Russia.
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New Spokesperson for Ukrainian Air Force
🎦 14:49-15:14⏩
Colonel Ilya Yevlesh has been appointed as the spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force. He replaces Yurii Ihnat. Yevlesh was previously the Press Officer for the Ukrainian Ground Forces. Ihnat has moved to another, unspecified, role at his own request.
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Russian Artillery Advantage Now 7:1
🎦 15:14-15:57⏩
Ivan Kyrychevskyi, Ukraine's Deputy Defence Minister, has stated that Russia's artillery advantage is now 7:1 in Russia's favour. It was previously believed to be 5:1. He also stated that Russia has dropped over 3,500 air-dropped bombs on Ukrainian positions since the start of 2024, a sixteenfold increase on the previous year. If the figure of 230 bombs being dropped on Sumy Oblast is correct, that would suggest a very high operational tempo. Kyrychevskyi believes that, aside from boots on the ground, the biggest challenge Ukraine faces is Russian aviation.
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Explosions in Belgorod
🎦 15:57-16:22⏩
Jonathan reports that, for the third day in a row, there have been explosions in Belgorod, this time in the morning. There are reports of thick smoke in the city. Jonathan states that he is not going to speculate on who is behind the attacks as there are many conflicting viewpoints.
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New Commander of the Russian Navy
🎦 17:06-18:44⏩
Russian state media has confirmed that the new commander of the Russian Navy is Admiral Aleksandr Moiseyev. He was previously the commander of the Russian Northern Fleet. The previous commander was relieved of his command after the Black Sea Fleet lost almost a third of its combat power. In the last month, Russia has lost 2 naval vessels, and over 20 since the beginning of the war, including landing ships, submarines and the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet - the Moskva. Sergei Shoigu, the Russian Defence Minister, recently visited what's left of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol. He has demanded that heavy machine guns are fixed to the vessels to help defend against Ukrainian naval drones, and that crews receive more training in how to defend against them. Jonathan is surprised it has taken so long for the Russian Navy to implement such measures. The previous commander of the Black Sea Fleet, Admiral Igor Osipov, has not been heard from for almost 6 months. It is widely believed that he was killed during a Ukrainian strike on Sevastopol.
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Impact of Sanctions on Russian Logistics
🎦 18:44-19:30⏩
Jonathan highlights a thread by economist Stanimir Dobrev, who states that the cost of logistics is becoming increasingly expensive for Russia. He gives the example of a truck lease - the interest rate is currently 24% making it impossible for medium-sized companies to operate. The only companies that can continue to operate are those with very large fleets. This has resulted in many companies outsourcing transportation. There are further issues with the availability of trucks - Chinese trucks are proving to be as expensive as those from the EU, but of lower quality. Dobrev's thread goes on to list many more examples of how the war and sanctions are impacting the Russian economy. Jonathan states that there is a great deal to discuss, but he will cover this another time.
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Miners Trapped in Russian Mine
🎦 19:30-19:52⏩
Jonathan reports that 13 miners are trapped in a mine in Russia. Whilst this may not be directly related to the war, it is likely that this will be seized upon by the media. It is possible that a lack of investment and sanctions have had a negative impact on safety in the mining industry.
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Wrap up
🎦 19:52-20:16⏩
Jonathan ends the video by stating that he has recorded a video with Tom debunking claims made by Russell Brand regarding the war in Ukraine in an interview with Bill Maher. This will be released later the same day.
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