Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
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"I really think that their success will come at a really dangerous cost to the Russians."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an update on the Ukraine war frontline for December 6th, 2023. He notes he will keep the report brief today due to time constraints.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Northeastern Axis: Kupyansk to Svatove to Kreminna
- The ISW reports Russian forces have decreased artillery fire intensity compared to late summer 2023 but are using tanks more frequently than in October.
- There is a lot of activity along the entire frontline in this sector.
- The Russians are putting pressure on Ukrainian forces east of Terny and Yampolivka, although there were reports of Ukrainian counter-attacks yesterday slightly further north.
- Syriat Maps claims the Russian army is advancing towards Terny and has taken control of more of the Shyroki ravine and gully area.
Russian Offensive Operations
Jonathan shares his perspective that while the Russians are having some success in places like Avdiivka and Bakhmut, it is coming at a huge cost. He questions if they can sustain this approach without culminating, as occurred in past conflicts like Afghanistan and Chechnya due to troop losses and discontent at home. The attacks seem very personnel intensive, with companies of 15-20 men being wiped out repeatedly. Jonathan hopes the Russians will exhaust themselves over the winter while Ukraine reconstitutes and mobilizes with Western aid to be in a stronger position by spring.
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Bakhmut
- Syriat Maps shows more Russian success just south of Bakhmut. They have filled in a previous gap in control near the dachas (country houses).
- The Russians are slowly moving along a ridge overlooking Klishchiivka. If they take the ridge and trench network, Ukraine would likely withdraw from the town to avoid being surrounded.
- A Ukrainian commander stated their artillery and drones destroyed roughly 80% of Russian equipment during assaults on Bakhmut.
- Jonathan notes that while the Russians have now taken all of Bakhmut, it took a very long time at high cost. The question is whether they can now advance to Chasiv Yar or if Ukraine will try to counterattack.
Avdiivka
- North of Avdiivka near Stepove there have been mixed results - Syriat Maps claims a Russian advance in Stepove itself but a Ukrainian gain in the treeline just south.
- There has been a lot of mechanized equipment in the area including tank duels. A Ukrainian T-62 beat a Russian T-80 with a stuck turret.
- The ISW reported geolocated footage showing Russian advances along the railway north of the Avdiivka Coke Plant and south of a waste heap.
- A Ukrainian source claimed the latest Russian assault on Stepove ended in disaster for them with 4 IFVs destroyed and 40 men killed. Jonathan notes the Russians keep sending companies to their deaths here.
Southern Donetsk Oblast
Jonathan briefly mentions that the situation remains tough for Ukraine in Marinka, Velyka Novosilka and Rivnopil but with no territorial changes.
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Vuhledar/Pavlivka
- The ISW cites Russian forces conducting 3 airstrikes with 26 glide bombs towards Krinky in the last day.
- Andrew Perpetua claimed there were reports of up to 100 glide bombs used.
- The Russians can now release 4-6 bombs per plane rather than 2, allowing them to barrage the small Ukrainian bridgehead repeatedly.
- Jonathan suggests Ukraine needs Patriot air defense systems in Kherson/Mykolaiv oblasts to counter the Russian airstrikes, even if just temporarily. The current bombardment is a serious problem for Ukrainian troops.
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for their ongoing support as interest may wane with the prolonged war. He emphasizes the importance of keeping the Ukraine crisis in global consciousness due to its impact on world stability. As always, he invites comments with any additional pertinent frontline information.
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