Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"War is assassination on a mass scale...when you are assassinating someone back in Russia, you're still just doing the same thing. As long as they are military personnel, I have absolutely no problem with the assassination of military personnel."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:35⏩
Jonathan introduces the video, which is the first part of a Ukraine War News Update for 19th December 2024. He mentions that it is getting close to Christmas. He reminds viewers that he and Jonathan Fink from Silicon Curtain will be doing a live stream on Thursday to raise donations for their campaign. ATP Geopolitics has raised almost 25,000 euros. The third 10,000 euros raised will be used to help other channels. Jonathan also mentions that he will be talking to Philip from On The Edge podcast and Georgie from Ukraine Matters at 2:30 PM UK time. He apologises that his brain is not working well due to a late night and lack of sleep. Note: Jonathan has multiple sclerosis and he explains that lack of sleep can affect his speech.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses - Figures from Ukrainian General Staff
🎦 01:36-03:01⏩
Jonathan provides the Ukrainian General Staff's figures for Russian losses, noting the usual caveats (which can be found in the description of his video). The losses include:
- 1,530 personnel
- 5 tanks
- 27 armoured personnel vehicles
- 14 artillery systems
- 1 anti-aircraft warfare system
- 68 vehicles and fuel tanks
- 4 pieces of special equipment
Jonathan notes that the personnel losses are very high and that the war is very attritional, personnel-wise. He wonders how many tanks the Russians have left and mentions seeing a train of T-62s being sent in through Rostov. He states he does not know the true production statistics of T-90Ms in Russia compared to what they are losing daily.
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Russian Losses - Andrew Perpetua's Loss List for 17th December
🎦 03:02-04:19⏩
Jonathan references Andrew Perpetua's loss list for the 17th of December. He notes that Andrew hasn't done these stats for about a week, but he expects him to release them soon. According to Andrew's data the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian losses is approximately 3:1, and for combat asset losses, it is about 2:1. Jonathan explains that earlier in the war, the Ukrainians were enjoying a 3:1 or 5:1 ratio in combat asset losses, but this has become more of a parity recently. He attributes this to the increased activity in the Kursk region, where the Ukrainians are attacking more and using more vehicles.
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Ukrainian Losses
🎦 04:20-08:30⏩
Jonathan details Ukrainian losses based on Andrew Perpetua's list. He notes that many of the losses are damaged rather than destroyed, which is positive. The losses include:
- Six damaged tanks (five of which are not labelled)
- Damaged IFV BMP
- Damaged AFV
- Two captured APCs (a Snatch Land Rover and an M113 APC)
- A destroyed Stryker
- An abandoned Kozak 7
- A destroyed Humvee
- Various civilian vehicles
Jonathan mentions a Task and Purpose video about the attack in Kursk, where the presenter (a veteran) discussed his experiences and the effectiveness of Stryker and Bradley vehicles against FPV drone threats. Jonathan mentions that a recent package of aid included 212 Strykers. Sarah brings Jonathan a lovely cup of tea.
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Russian Losses
🎦 08:30-10:52⏩
Jonathan discusses Russian losses based on Andrew Perpetua's list. He highlights the substantial losses in civilian vehicles used for military purposes and notes a good ratio of destroyed to damaged vehicles. The losses include:
- Numerous cars, Ladas, and UAZ "loaf" vans
- Many ATVs, including quads and golf buggies
- An engineering vehicle
- Two pieces of artillery (one destroyed, one damaged)
- Six tanks of varying types
- Approximately 20 infantry fighting vehicles (BMP-1s, BMP-3s, BMP-2s, BMDs, and BTRs)
- Two destroyed MTLBs (APCs)
- A damaged M113 (captured from Ukraine)
- Two Tiger-Ms hit by night vision FPV drones
Jonathan references a Perun video discussing the replacement rate and stockpile exhaustion of these vehicles. He mentions that Russia is still producing BMP-3s but will soon run out of BMP-1s and BMP-2s. He also notes that Russia has lost many MTLBs and that their storage looks depleted.
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Valery Gerasimov Claims AFU Lost 42,000 Soldiers in Kursk Region
🎦 10:52-12:07⏩
Jonathan mentions that Valery Gerasimov, the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, claimed that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have lost over 42,000 soldiers and more than 1,800 tanks and armoured vehicles in the Kursk region alone. Jonathan expresses his intuition that this is likely an overstatement.
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US State Department on Possible Deployment of North Korean Units to Russia
🎦 12:07-13:00⏩
Jonathan discusses a statement from US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller, who said that the US currently has no confirmation of new North Korean units being deployed to Russia but does not rule out such a possibility. Jonathan wonders about Russia's ability to recruit more troops and the cost involved. He mentions a previous conversation with Greg Terry, who spoke to a Korean individual who expected 100,000 North Korean troops to be sent to Russia.
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Cost for Russia to Recruit North Korean Troops
🎦 13:00-13:37⏩
Jonathan discusses the costs for Russia to recruit North Korean troops, including equipment, technology, and potentially hydrocarbons. He questions Russia's capacity to pay North Korea given its current economic status. He suggests that providing hydrocarbons might be the most sustainable option for Russia.
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Intercepted Phone Calls Indicate North Korean Troops Suffering Heavy Casualties
🎦 13:38-14:53⏩
Jonathan mentions intercepted phone calls from a nurse at a Moscow hospital, indicating that wounded North Korean fighters are being brought in by the trainload from the Kursk oblast. Tim White reports that 100 North Korean troops have died and up to 1,000 more have been injured, citing a South Korean MP quoting the country's National Intelligence Service. Jonathan connects this with previous imagery of North Korean casualties and hospital scenes in Kursk, suggesting that North Korean troops are suffering heavy attrition.
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North Korean Tactics and Losses
🎦 14:53-15:21⏩
Jonathan describes videos showing North Korean troops being ineffective against drones and using poor tactics, such as walking randomly across fields and getting "hammered". He mentions claims that North Koreans are being used in "meat waves".
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Russian Ka-52 Alligator Attack Helicopter Shot Down
🎦 15:21-15:47⏩
Jonathan reports that a Russian Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopter was shot down, likely by Russian air defence, according to Anton Gerashchenko. Open data suggests that Russia has lost about half of these helicopters, which Jonathan finds staggering.
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Footage of Destroyed Russian Military Equipment
🎦 15:48-17:31⏩
Jonathan discusses footage from Russian media showing a large amount of destroyed Russian military equipment. He describes the scene, counting at least 17 destroyed vehicles on one side of the road alone. He emphasises that this is just one data point and that there are many such "roads of death" where vast amounts of equipment have been destroyed.
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Ukrainian Drones Using Thermite
🎦 17:31-17:59⏩
Jonathan notes that there has been an increase in the use of thermite by Ukrainian drones, after a period where it was not seen as frequently. He mentions footage of a Ukrainian drone using thermite to burn down a Russian hideout. He enjoys his tea, exclaiming it is a "damn good cup of tea".
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Sabotage at Military Unit in Novosibirsk
🎦 18:00-18:46⏩
Jonathan discusses a report of burning fuel tankers at a military unit in Novosibirsk, apparently caused by sabotage carried out by the Legion of Freedom of Russia. He expresses uncertainty about whether it was a drone strike or sabotage but confirms that Novosibirsk is not close to the front lines.
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Passenger Train Collides with Freight Train in Minsk Region
🎦 18:46-19:33⏩
Jonathan reports on a collision between a passenger train and a freight train in the Minsk region of Russia. He notes that while it is unfortunate, any logistical nightmare in Russia is beneficial for Ukraine, as it disrupts the movement of resources and materials.
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Assassination of Russian General and Lieutenant General
🎦 19:33-20:41⏩
Jonathan discusses the assassination of a Russian General and Lieutenant General, referencing a New York Times quote from a senior Ukrainian special forces officer who claimed that such operations have zero strategic and tactical impact. Jonathan questions the wisdom of these operations, considering the potential for Russian retaliation.
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Keith Kellogg's Criticism of Russian General Assassination
🎦 20:42-21:17⏩
Jonathan mentions that Keith Kellogg, Trump's peace envoy to Ukraine, criticised the assassination of a Russian general, calling it "not a good idea". Jonathan wonders about the basis for Kellogg's criticism, whether it is based on practicalities or a moral position on assassination.
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Zelensky's Response to Keith Kellogg
🎦 21:18-22:19⏩
Jonathan reports that Zelensky stated he had not heard Keith Kellogg's interview but would meet with Trump's incoming peace envoy in Kyiv. Tim White highlights the potential double standards in Kellogg's criticism, given US support for Israeli assassinations.
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Konstantin on the Assassination
🎦 22:19-23:09⏩
Jonathan quotes Konstantin, a Ukrainian often involved in Andrew Perpetua's live streams, who argues that the assassination of a high-ranking Russian general demonstrates Ukraine's capable intelligence services and its sovereignty in decision-making. Konstantin suggests that this independence frustrates some Western elites who prefer Ukraine to remain weak.
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Jonathan's Thoughts on Assassination
🎦 23:09-26:23⏩
Jonathan shares his thoughts on assassination, stating that war is essentially assassination on a mass scale. He argues that assassinating military personnel involved in the war is justifiable, as they are part of Russia's war project to invade a sovereign, democratic country. He acknowledges the moral complexities of assassinating politicians, who may have greater responsibility for the war than the soldiers on the ground. He concludes that there are no clear-cut answers in moral discussions and that we must muddle through our own subjective evaluations.
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Drone and Missile Attacks Overnight
🎦 26:23-27:42⏩
Jonathan reports that 85 drones were shot down or taken out with electronic warfare overnight, with 40 by electronic warfare and 45 shot down. Two Iskander-M ballistic missiles hit Kryvyi Rih, and a KH-59 or KH-69 guided aerial bomb (cruise missile) got through defences. He mentions reports of Shahid drones being launched from Primorsko-Akhtarsk and explosions in Rostov and Taganrog, suggesting that the Ukrainian army may have been trying to strike the launch areas.
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Storm Shadow/SCALP EG Missile Strikes in Rostov Region
🎦 27:42-29:13⏩
Jonathan reports a missile attack in the Rostov region, with several strikes at the Taganrog metallurgical plant. Storm Shadow or SCALP EG missiles were caught on camera. He notes that this is the first time these missiles have targeted the Rostov region in Russia, not in occupied Ukraine or the Kursk region. He highlights that Russia has not declared this a crossing of a red line, even though it was a red line that the West had painted for Ukraine.
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Drone and Missile Attacks in Rostov-on-Don and Zaporizhzhia
🎦 29:14-33:04⏩
Jonathan reports that Rostov-on-Don was under attack for the second time overnight, with the acting governor claiming that seven drones were shot down. However, explosions were caught on CCTV, and there are reports of a major fire at an oil refinery in Novoshakhtinsk, likely caused by a combination of drones and Neptune missiles. The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed the strike on the refinery. Jonathan also mentions a missile attack on occupied Zaporizhzhia, with the invaders' head claiming that four missiles were shot down.
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General Syrskyi on Russian Attacks
🎦 33:04-34:07⏩
Jonathan mentions that General Syrskyi, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (North), stated that Russia has failed to breach Ukraine's defensive lines in simultaneous attacks. Jonathan interprets this as meaning that the main trench lines haven't been breached, which he considers good news.
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Increase in Russian Troops in Ukraine
🎦 34:07-35:13⏩
Jonathan discusses Syrskyi's statement that Russia has increased the number of troops in Ukraine by 100,000 this year. He is unsure whether this is based on Ukraine's intelligence assessment or Russia's claims. He notes that if Russia has 100,000 more troops in reality, it would be a massive challenge for Ukraine.
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Gerasimov Claims 2024 Objectives Accomplished
🎦 35:13-36:22⏩
Jonathan mentions that Gerasimov stated that all objectives assigned to the Russian armed forces for 2024 have been "successfully accomplished". Jonathan speculates that this could be a precursor to negotiations or an attempt to mislead his superiors.
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Denis Pushilin Allocates Stolen Homes to Russian State Employees
🎦 36:07-36:22⏩
Jonathan reports that Denis Pushilin, the head of the DPR, signed a law allocating homes stolen from Mariupol citizens to Russian state employees. Demolished apartment buildings are also being rebuilt for sale to Russians.
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Russian Soldiers Robbing Apartments in Zelene Pole, Donetsk
🎦 36:22-37:06⏩
Jonathan mentions that Russian soldiers have filmed themselves robbing apartments in the occupied city of Zelene Pole, Donetsk. He notes that they have previously admitted to various war crimes, including looting Ukrainian homes and even their own housing in the Kursk region.
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Russia Moves S-300 and S-400 Air Defence Systems from Syria to Libya
🎦 37:06-37:51⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia has moved S-300 and S-400 air defence systems from Syria to Libya, according to the Wall Street Journal. He wonders whether they will be redeployed in Africa, if Libya will become Russia's new Syria, or if they will end up in Ukraine.
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Quarter of Shopping Centres in Russia May Close
🎦 37:51-38:50⏩
Jonathan mentions a report from the Moscow Times stating that a quarter of all shopping centres in Russia may have to close in the next 12 months due to the risk of bankruptcy. He suggests that many recent fires in Russia could be insurance jobs, reflecting the terrible economic landscape and prospects in the country.
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Putin Acknowledges Sanctions Impact on Russia's Economy
🎦 38:50-39:59⏩
Jonathan discusses Putin's acknowledgment that sanctions have had an impact on Russia's economy, although Putin claims they are not of key importance. Jonathan believes that even this slight acknowledgment indicates that the sanctions are having a greater impact than Putin admits.
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Comparison of Ukrainian and Russian Economies
🎦 40:00-41:50⏩
Jonathan quotes Shashank Joshi, referencing The Economist, stating that Ukraine's economy has reinvented itself and is healthier than Russia's in some key respects. Ukraine's central bank forecasts GDP growth of 4% in 2024 and 4.3% in 2025, while Russia's GDP is set to grow by only 0.5-1.5% in 2025. Jonathan highlights the difference in international support and investment between the two countries.
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Ecological Disaster in the Sea of Azov and Kerch Strait
🎦 41:50-42:28⏩
Jonathan reports on the ongoing ecological disaster in the Sea of Azov and Kerch Strait, caused by the sinking of fuel oil tankers. Marine life is struggling to survive, with fish suffocating in the polluted waters. He shares a picture of a dead dolphin or porpoise, calling it "horrendously sad".
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Wrap up
🎦 42:28-43:06⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and for their continued support. He encourages them to check out the truck campaign, which is almost at 70,000 euros in total donations. He says that ATP Geopolitics is close to securing two and a half trucks. He appreciates everyone's support and says he will speak to them soon.
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