Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News, Disinformation Rant
Table of Contents 📖
"I really want a disease that's going to eat away at my bones and my body ... Yeah, come on. I'm going to lick the pavement. I'm going to lick the gravel. Yeah, disease me. Yeah, brilliant. Freedom of disease. I love freedom of disease. Oh, I'm dead. Yeah, well done. Or I go, I'm not going to lick the gravel because that's a stupid idea and it's going to give me a disease. In the same way, I'm not going to allow this media organization to take money from Russia and Iran to spread vile disinformation inside my country."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:18⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to another video, noting that his sons have returned to school after half term, bringing his routine back to "normality."
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report: High Russian Losses
🎦 00:19-02:19⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's report on Russian losses, highlighting:
- Personnel: 1,270 (high)
- Tanks: 14 (significant)
- Armoured Personnel Vehicles: 22 (above average)
- Artillery Systems: 47 (phenomenal)
- MLRS: 1
- Anti-Aircraft Systems: 3
- Vehicles & Fuel Tanks: 67 (staggering)
- Special Equipment: 4
He speculates that the high artillery losses are due to successful Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions in Belgorod Oblast, where they're staging attacks on Kharkiv. Jonathan notes that Oryx's visually confirmed loss statistics show a roughly 4:1 or greater advantage in favour of Ukraine. He emphasizes that while the Ukrainians haven't lost any high-value equipment, the attrition of older equipment is expected to continue, eventually leading to a higher proportion of losses being from newer, NATO-supplied equipment.
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Analysing Long-Term Equipment Losses in the Russia-Ukraine War
🎦 02:20-03:43⏩
Jonathan discusses the long-term implications of equipment losses for both sides. He observes that unlike Russia, Ukraine lacks deep stockpiles of equipment, meaning that as the war goes on, the proportion of losses from newer, NATO-supplied weapons will naturally increase as older equipment is gradually depleted. He contrasts this with Russia, whose large stockpiles make it harder to determine whether they are prioritizing the use of newer equipment or if the appearance of older variants in loss reports indicates dwindling supplies of newer models.
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Russian Equipment Losses in Detail
🎦 03:43-06:42⏩
Jonathan delves into specific Russian equipment losses, listing various destroyed and damaged vehicles and weapons systems, including:
- Electronic Warfare/Surveillance/Comms equipment
- Engineering vehicles
- Grads
- Tanks (T-62s, T-80s, T-72s, Tracked Guard, Shed, Mine clearing tank)
- Infantry Fighting Vehicles (BMP-1s, BMP-2s, BMP-3s, BTRs)
- MRAPs (VPK-URALS)
- ATVs
- Trucks
- Civilian vehicles
He observes a high proportion of destroyed equipment compared to damaged equipment in the Oryx data.
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Heavy Russian Losses Around Prohrovsk
🎦 06:42-07:57⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to anecdotal but numerous reports of heavy Russian losses. He begins by highlighting the Ukrainian General Staff's claim of over 350 Russian soldiers eliminated in battles around Prokhorovsk, representing a significant portion of the total daily losses and indicating the intensity of fighting in the area.
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Russian 177th Regiment: 90% Casualties in Krynky?
🎦 07:57-09:48⏩
Jonathan cites reports, including one from researcher Trent Solanko, claiming that the Russian 177th Regiment has suffered 90% casualties in Krynky over two months. This translates to an average of 45 casualties per day. Jonathan highlights a Russian source expressing outrage over these losses, questioning the decision-making that led to such a devastating outcome. The source claims the regiment entered Krynky with 3,000 troops and now only has 10% remaining. Jonathan acknowledges the anecdotal nature of the report but finds it compelling due to similar reports emerging from Krynky. He reiterates his belief that Ukrainian forces deliberately maintained a bridgehead in Krynky to draw in and attrit Russian forces, a strategy that appears to have been successful.
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Russian Losses in Vovchansk: Testimony From a Soldier
🎦 09:48-12:33⏩
Jonathan shares an account from a Russian soldier, Anton Andreev, describing heavy losses suffered during the attempt to take Vovchansk. Andreev claims that only 12 out of 100 soldiers in his company survived the fighting. The account, published by Astra, highlights the dire situation on the ground, with high casualties, poor equipment, and commanders prioritizing attack over the lives of their troops. Andreev reveals that many soldiers were sent into combat with minimal equipment, including those pulled directly from training grounds. This corroborates other reports suggesting Russia is deploying poorly trained and equipped troops to reinforce their positions. Jonathan questions whether Russia is in any position to launch a successful offensive if these reports are accurate.
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The Perils of Supplying the Front Lines: Ukrainian Drones Target Russian Logistics
🎦 12:33-14:35⏩
Jonathan shares another account from a wounded Russian soldier who speaks about the dangers of supplying frontline Russian units due to constant targeting by Ukrainian drones. This soldier emphasizes that logistics and supply lines have become more dangerous than combat positions, highlighting the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone warfare in disrupting Russian operations. The soldier describes how even minimal movement can attract drone attacks, emphasizing the need for strict camouflage and cover.
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Russian POW Account: Only 3% of His Unit Survived in Kharkiv
🎦 14:35-15:27⏩
Jonathan recounts the testimony of a captured 24-year-old Russian soldier who reveals that only nine out of 300 soldiers in his unit survived a few days of fighting in northern Kharkiv. Despite acknowledging the potential for this to be misinformation, Jonathan points out that this account aligns with other reports and visual evidence he has seen, suggesting its plausibility. The POW's testimony reinforces the reports of heavy losses, confusion, and the use of blocking units by Russian forces.
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Drone Warfare: A Russian Soldier's Perspective
🎦 15:27-24:34⏩
Jonathan reads an extended account from a Russian soldier in Zaporizhzhia, illustrating the impact of Ukrainian drone warfare on Russian operations. The soldier details the constant threat of drone surveillance, describing how even the slightest movement can lead to artillery strikes. This account emphasizes the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone tactics, particularly in intelligence gathering, target acquisition, and artillery spotting. He describes a climate of fear among Russian troops who are effectively trapped in their dugouts, unable to move freely due to the constant threat of drone attacks.
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Ukrainian Strikes Deep Inside Russia: Kursk Convoy Attacked
🎦 24:34-25:15⏩
Jonathan discusses footage of a Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian convoy in Kursk. The Ukrainians targeted a long column of Russian supply vehicles, disabling several and causing the rest to scatter for cover. Jonathan questions whether this attack will deter further Russian incursions into Sumy Oblast and suggests it highlights the vulnerability of Russian supply lines.
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Ukrainians Target Russian Artillery in Belgorod
🎦 25:15-26:28⏩
Jonathan highlights footage showing a Russian TOS-1A thermobaric rocket launcher exploding after being hit by Ukrainian forces. He notes the system's vulnerability due to its limited range. He goes on to report the destruction of two Russian 152mm howitzers and several MRAPs in Belgorod. He believes Ukraine is systematically targeting Russian artillery in the region, contributing to the high daily losses reported.
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Belgorod Under Fire: Russian Defence Ministry Site Attacked
🎦 26:28-27:36⏩
Jonathan reports on a successful Ukrainian attack on a Russian Defence Ministry deployment site in Belgorod. The attack reportedly resulted in the destruction of Russian military equipment, three wounded servicemen, and several high-ranking officials killed or injured, including the deputy head of the district administration. Jonathan emphasizes the significance of these strikes, noting that even one such incident would be major news in a country like the UK, while Russia experiences numerous, large-scale fires and attacks regularly.
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Russia on Fire: Fires and Floods Plague the Country
🎦 27:36-36:53⏩
Jonathan details a series of fires and floods across Russia, suggesting they are indicative of a wider trend of neglect and resource depletion caused by the war. He mentions a large forest fire in Borzya, spanning over 30,000 hectares, and a warehouse fire in Irkutsk. He also notes a warehouse fire in Novosibirsk involving fuel and lubricants, requiring significant firefighting efforts. Jonathan points out that these events, while individually noteworthy, have become almost commonplace in Russia. He then turns his attention to flooding in Kaliningrad, reporting submerged cars, flooded buildings, and disrupted transportation. He suggests that the strain of the war is preventing Russia from adequately addressing these crises.
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Russia Relocates Karakurt-Class Corvettes to Caspian Sea
🎦 36:53-37:57⏩
Jonathan reports, citing UK intelligence, that Russia is relocating Karakurt-class corvettes from the Black Sea to the Caspian Sea, likely due to successful Ukrainian attacks. He expresses surprise that this development hasn't received more attention from mainstream media, as it signifies a significant Ukrainian victory in neutralizing the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
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Russia's Improved Targeting: The Role of Satellite Imagery Providers
🎦 37:57-40:08⏩
Jonathan expresses concern over the improved accuracy and effectiveness of Russian missile strikes, attributing it partly to better satellite and drone reconnaissance. He suspects Chinese assistance in providing imagery and intelligence. He introduces the possibility of Russian collaboration with commercial satellite imagery providers despite sanctions. Jonathan argues that access to such imagery is crucial for Russia to effectively target and damage critical Ukrainian infrastructure.
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Satellite Imagery: A Potential Loophole in Sanctions Against Russia
🎦 40:08-44:06⏩
Jonathan discusses reports suggesting that Russia might be circumventing sanctions to access commercial satellite imagery, enabling them to improve the accuracy of their missile strikes. He cites an investigation by The Atlantic, which uncovered a pattern of Russian missile strikes targeting locations shortly after someone purchased satellite imagery of those areas. He then highlights the findings of OSINT agency Molfar, which confirmed The Atlantic's investigation and found further evidence of this connection. They also suggest the involvement of intermediaries in facilitating the transfer of this sensitive information to Russia. Jonathan draws parallels with how sanctioned components for military equipment end up in Russian hands through complex supply chains and intermediary companies. He criticizes this loophole and calls for stricter measures to prevent commercial satellite imagery from being used to aid Russia's war effort in Ukraine.
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Ukraine Strikes in Russia: A Non-Nuclear Response
🎦 44:06-45:28⏩
Jonathan addresses the muted Russian response to Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory. He sarcastically notes the lack of a nuclear retaliation, referencing earlier fears of escalation expressed by US officials. He suggests that the reality of the situation has exposed the hollowness of those fears, demonstrating that Russia's bark is worse than its bite. Jonathan mocks those who predicted a more aggressive response from Russia, highlighting the disconnect between rhetoric and reality.
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The Gray Zone: Exposing an Alleged Pro-Russian Disinformation Outlet
🎦 45:28-51:24⏩
Jonathan criticizes The Gray Zone, a US-based news website, for allegedly receiving funding from Russian and Iranian government-controlled media outlets. He expresses strong disapproval of what he perceives as a blatant attempt to influence the upcoming US elections in favor of Kremlin interests. Jonathan argues that allowing foreign entities to fund media outlets involved in spreading misinformation within the US is dangerous and irresponsible. He calls for a shutdown of The Gray Zone, dismissing concerns about censorship as irrelevant given the gravity of the situation. Jonathan then delves into the details of The Washington Post's report on The Gray Zone, highlighting its editor's alleged ties to Iranian state media, payments received from Iranian broadcaster Press TV, and the founder's appearances on Russian state television and acceptance of a trip to Moscow for an RT event. Jonathan condemns the platforming of Gray Zone personalities by figures like Elon Musk, further solidifying his stance that these individuals are spreading harmful propaganda. He expresses his distrust of Musk and criticizes his judgment in amplifying these voices.
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Trump, Musk, and the Pro-Kremlin Network
🎦 51:24-52:06⏩
Jonathan expresses deep concern over the potential for a pro-Kremlin network to influence US politics, citing the alleged connections between Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Michael Flynn, and media outlets like The Gray Zone. He criticizes Trump's reported plans to purge the US military leadership and implement an authoritarian-style administration based on the "Project 2025" plan. He draws parallels between inviting a fox to guard a hen house and allowing individuals with pro-Kremlin sympathies to hold positions of power. Jonathan concludes by expressing alarm at the potential consequences of such a scenario.
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Wrap Up
🎦 52:06-52:20⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and bids them farewell.
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