Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News - Eur/US Aid State of Play
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Table of Contents 📖
"Europe has to stop it."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:12⏩
- Jonathan welcomes viewers to ATP Geopolitics for a Ukraine War News Update.
- He notes that other nations are beginning to question the nature of aid to Ukraine, mirroring the US position on demanding repayment.
Slovakia considers requesting reimbursement for Ukraine aid
🎦 00:13-00:59⏩
- Slovakia is considering asking Ukraine to repay the €3.5 billion in aid provided.
- This follows the US potentially asking for funds back, setting a precedent.
- Andrei Danko, leader of the Slovak National Party, questioned how President Zelenskyy would repay such a sum, highlighting growing unease about the financial implications of aid.
Jonathan criticises US demand for mineral deal in exchange for Ukraine aid
🎦 01:00-02:54⏩
- Jonathan expresses moral outrage at the US, particularly under Trump, for potentially demanding repayment for aid to Ukraine in the form of a minerals deal.
- He suggests this move could backfire on the US extortion plan, potentially empowering Ukraine to refuse the US demands.
- Jonathan argues that Ukraine was given aid because they are fighting a war that aligns with Western strategic objectives, acting as a proxy to avoid direct Western troop involvement.
- Demanding repayment and resources could lead to other nations doing the same, undermining international support for Ukraine.
- He raises concerns that Ukraine risks becoming a vassal state of the US if forced to accept such deals, merely replacing dependence on Russia with dependence on the US.
Ukraine risks becoming a vassal state of the United States
🎦 02:55-03:01⏩
- Jonathan reiterates his concern that if Ukraine becomes economically beholden to the United States due to aid repayment demands, it risks swapping Russian vassalage for American vassalage, defeating the purpose of fighting for independence.
Macron and Trump interaction at G7 summit
🎦 03:02-03:32⏩
- Jonathan transitions to discussing a meeting between French President Macron and Donald Trump, noting contrasting approaches.
- Macron is portrayed as firm in his stance against Russian aggression, while Trump's position is viewed negatively.
- The discussion moves to an interaction between Macron and Trump, highlighting their differing views on Ukraine aid and frozen Russian assets.
Macron corrects Trump's misinformation about Ukraine aid repayment
🎦 03:32-06:50⏩
- Jonathan analyses a video clip of Macron and Trump, highlighting Macron correcting Trump's misstatements regarding Ukraine aid repayment.
- Macron clarifies that the EU's loan to Ukraine is being repaid using frozen Russian assets, a point seemingly misunderstood or ignored by Trump.
- Jonathan points out Trump's dismissive reaction to Macron's correction as evidence of Trump's dishonesty and disrespect towards an allied leader.
- He expresses strong personal disdain for Trump, calling him a liar and highlighting his inconsistent and potentially fabricated claims about aid amounts and repayment terms.
- Jonathan emphasises that Macron is accurately describing the EU's strategy of using frozen Russian assets to fund aid to Ukraine, contrasting this with Trump's false narrative.
Trump's inconsistent statements on US aid to Ukraine and G7 summit
🎦 06:51-08:45⏩
- Jonathan discusses a statement released after the Macron-Trump meeting where Trump references the G7 summit convened by Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (whom Trump mockingly calls "Governor").
- Trump's statement mentions a "vital, critical minerals and rare earths deal" with Ukraine to recoup "tens of billions of dollars", a significant reduction from previous inflated figures (hundreds of billions) cited by Trump.
- Jonathan questions whether this shift to "tens of billions" indicates an implicit acknowledgement that Macron is correct, or a reflection of a changing reality.
- However, Trump later reverts to claiming "$350 billion" in a press conference, highlighting his inconsistency and dishonesty.
- Jonathan concludes Trump is either ignorant or deliberately lying about the figures and the nature of US aid to Ukraine.
Wall Street Journal: US weapons to last until mid-2025 despite aid uncertainty
🎦 08:46-10:22⏩
- Shifting to the topic of continued US weapon supplies, Jonathan references a Wall Street Journal article stating the US will supply weapons to Ukraine until 2026 due to pre-existing contracts.
- Despite political uncertainty and potential aid blocks, these contracts ensure continued deliveries for some time.
- Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba warns of weapon shortages within six months if US aid stops, emphasizing the critical nature of US supplies.
- The article suggests that current contracted shipments should enable Ukraine to fight at current rates until at least mid-2025.
- Ukrainian analyst Mikola Bieliskov suggests Ukraine might endure for up to a year, allowing Europe time to increase its own munitions production, even if it means suffering losses.
Macron suggests ceasefire possibility; Jonathan argues for just, not quick peace
🎦 10:22-11:17⏩
- Macron suggests a ceasefire in Ukraine may be possible within weeks.
- Jonathan interprets this as a conceptual possibility to reassure people rather than a realistic expectation.
- He argues against a quick solution, stating that a just and lasting peace is more important for Ukraine, even if it takes longer to achieve.
- He believes a hasty peace is unlikely to be just and in Ukraine's best interest.
Europe aims to compensate for potential US aid shortfall in 2024
🎦 11:18-12:35⏩
- Europe is preparing to compensate for a potential shortfall in US military aid to Ukraine in 2024.
- The EU, UK, and Norway collectively provided approximately $25 billion in military aid in the past year, exceeding US contributions.
- European officials indicate substantial increases in artillery shell production and discussions to raise EU aid to $30 billion this year.
- Since the start of the full-scale invasion, the US has provided nearly $70 billion in military aid, still more than all other Western aid combined, according to Zelenskyy and the Kiel Institute.
Analysis of different types and valuation of military aid to Ukraine
🎦 12:35-14:04⏩
- Jonathan delves into the complexities of calculating military aid, distinguishing between equipment value, humanitarian aid, government aid, and financial investments in Ukraine's defence industry.
- He highlights the issue of "book value" versus actual value of supplied equipment, noting that sending obsolete equipment to Ukraine might even save donor countries decommissioning costs.
- He suggests that the stated value of military aid may not accurately reflect the actual financial outlay by donor countries, as much of it involves equipment already purchased and potentially nearing obsolescence.
- Jonathan emphasizes the need to unpick these figures to accurately compare contributions from different entities.
Ukraine's domestic arms production covers 55% of its needs
🎦 14:05-15:24⏩
- Ukraine has significantly developed its domestic munitions industry, now producing $30 billion worth of weaponry annually, a six-fold increase from the previous year.
- In 2024, Ukraine is projected to produce 1.5 million drones and plans to produce 3,000 missiles and 30,000 long-range drones.
- Drones are highlighted as a primary form of defence, minimising casualties.
- Currently, Ukraine finances or produces about 55% of its military hardware.
- The US provides approximately 20%, and Europe 25% of Ukraine's military hardware, according to a Western official.
- Jonathan notes the significant ramp-up of Ukraine's indigenous arms industry and that the EU is now providing more military support than the US.
US remains crucial for advanced weaponry like air defence and long-range systems
🎦 15:25-16:04⏩
- While Europe is increasing its overall aid, the US remains critical for providing specific advanced weaponry that Europe cannot readily supply.
- These include advanced air defence systems, surface-to-air ballistic missiles, navigation systems, and long-range rocket artillery.
- Analysts and officials warn that if US supplies cease, Ukraine's ability to conduct long-range strikes and protect rear positions would be significantly weakened.
- This reinforces the need for Europe to focus on developing and producing its own long-range missile and air defence capabilities.
Call for increased European production of long-range missiles and air defence systems
🎦 16:05-17:23⏩
- Jonathan reiterates the urgent need for Europe to increase production of long-range missiles, long-range drones, and ballistic/anti-ballistic air defence missiles like the Santee.
- He stresses the necessity of mass production of critical systems like Santee missiles.
- Ukraine is increasing its own artillery and mortar round production to 2.5 million per year, but continued US artillery shell supplies remain important.
- The EU is also increasing artillery shell production, aiming for 2 million this year.
- Analysts highlight that the biggest challenge for Ukraine in the absence of US aid would be the lack of American-made air defences, particularly Patriot systems, and long-range ATACMS missiles.
- Concerns are raised about potential disruption to SpaceX's Starlink internet service in Ukraine if US aid ceases, given Elon Musk's ties to Trump.
Concerns about Starlink access and potential US restrictions on arms sales to Ukraine
🎦 17:24-18:37⏩
- Continued access to SpaceX's Starlink internet service, vital for battlefield communications and partly funded by the Pentagon, is questioned due to Elon Musk's relationship with Trump.
- Analyst Mikhailo Summers suggests that even if the US stops direct aid, it might still allow Europe to purchase American weapons for Ukraine.
- The core issue is whether Trump will permit the production and sale of weapons for Ukraine, not just direct aid.
- Summers warns that if Trump blocks arms sales, it would be a "categorical blow" to Ukraine and Europe.
- Jonathan speculates that Trump might face resistance from the US military-industrial complex if he tries to block arms sales, as it would harm their economic interests.
- He doubts Trump would go so far as to explicitly work against US arms sales to Ukraine and Europe, but acknowledges it is not beyond possibility.
Denmark delivers 12 of 19 promised F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine
🎦 18:38-18:54⏩
- In positive news, Denmark has delivered 12 of the 19 F-16 fighter jets promised to Ukraine, with the remaining jets expected to be delivered later in the year.
- This signifies continued European commitment to providing military aid, in contrast to US uncertainties.
Germany to supply howitzers, artillery shells and training; Rheinmetall expands production
🎦 18:55-20:50⏩
- Germany is set to send 370,000 artillery shells to Ukraine in 2025 and confirmed the delivery of six RCH-155 howitzers.
- These RCH-155 are advanced, remote-controlled howitzers on Boxer chassis with a small crew, eventually intended for fully remote operation.
- Germany will also train 10,000 Ukrainian troops, including medics and snipers.
- German company Rheinmetall plans to repurpose two automotive plants in Germany for defence equipment production, anticipating increased demand due to geopolitical tensions and potential US withdrawal.
- This move is seen as strategic, ensuring a sustainable future for European defence companies amid potential shifts in US foreign policy and growing European defence autonomy.
German automotive industry decline creates opportunity for Rheinmetall's defence expansion
🎦 20:51-22:58⏩
- Jonathan explains that Germany's automotive industry is struggling, contributing to the country's economic stagnation.
- This decline is partly attributed to the industry's slow transition to electric vehicles and reduced demand for traditional petrol and diesel cars.
- Rheinmetall's repurposing of automotive plants for defence production is presented as a strategic response, capitalising on the decline of the automotive sector and the growing demand for defence equipment.
- Two Rheinmetall factories facing potential closure will be converted for arms production in Berlin and Neuss, utilising the skilled workforce from the automotive sector.
UK and French car production decline contrasts with German defence industry growth
🎦 22:59-23:27⏩
- Car production in the UK and France is also falling dramatically, risking factory closures and workforce losses, similar to Germany's automotive challenges.
- Jonathan highlights that Rheinmetall's initiative to repurpose factories is a positive step for Germany's military-industrial base and its capacity to meet growing defence needs.
- Such initiatives are crucial for preserving jobs, retaining skills, and supporting the overall European industrial base in the context of potential military expansion.
Germany considers major increase in military spending
🎦 23:28-24:05⏩
- Jonathan notes that sustained high levels of European defence spending are likely for the next 10-15 years.
- Friedrich Merz is advocating for Germany to release €200 billion in expanded military expenditure, indicating a significant potential increase in German defence spending.
- This highlights the growth potential within the European defence sector.
- An analyst emphasizes the urgent need to restore defence productivity through government-industry collaboration.
Germany upgrades Taurus missile stockpile, hinting at potential Ukraine supply
🎦 24:06-25:29⏩
- MBDA Deutschland has secured a contract to maintain and upgrade the German Air Force's Taurus KPD-350 missile stockpile.
- 600 Taurus missiles will be restored to full operational capability.
- Analyst Fabian Hoffman suggests this is significant not only for German warfighting readiness but also for the potential supply of Taurus missiles to Ukraine, should the German government decide to proceed.
- This upgrade is seen as a potential preparatory step for providing Taurus missiles to Ukraine, although not explicitly confirmed.
France increases Caesar howitzer deliveries to Ukraine
🎦 25:30-26:24⏩
- KNDS France, the manufacturer of Caesar howitzers, reports delivering 43 Caesar howitzers last year and aims for 65 next year.
- By the end of this year, KNDS will have delivered nearly 110 Caesar guns to Ukraine.
- This indicates a significant ramp-up in production of Caesar howitzers, with some portion destined for Ukraine, funded by France, Denmark, and potentially Ukraine itself.
Ukraine and Canada agree to jointly produce armoured vehicles in Ukraine
🎦 26:25-27:56⏩
- Ukroboronprom, Ukraine's state-controlled defence entity, has signed an agreement with Canadian company Roshel to jointly produce armoured vehicles in Ukraine.
- Roshel, led by CEO Roman Shimanov, employs many Ukrainian refugees in its Canadian factories and has been a strong supporter of Ukraine.
- Manufacturing Roshel's armoured vehicles in Ukraine will expedite their delivery to combat units and integrate Ukraine's defence industry further into the Western defence industrial base.
- Minister for Strategic Industries Herman Smetanin highlights this localisation as a positive step for Ukraine's production adaptability.
- Ukraine continues to develop its own tanks and armoured vehicles alongside this Western collaboration.
Zelensky showcases Ukrainian defence industry products to partner nations
🎦 27:57-28:41⏩
- President Zelenskyy showcased Ukrainian defence industry products, including drones, robotic platforms, electronic warfare systems, and communication tools, to visiting leaders like Justin Trudeau.
- This demonstration aimed to highlight Ukraine's defence capabilities and potentially attract further investment and partnerships.
- Jonathan suggests that after the war, Ukraine could export its defence products, leveraging spare capacity.
Ireland to provide Ukraine with Giraffe radar air defence systems
🎦 28:42-30:01⏩
- Ireland will, for the first time, supply Ukraine with air defence systems, donating four Giraffe Mark IV radar systems.
- These radar systems, though older, are still capable and will be mounted on Bandvagn 206 carriers previously supplied to Ukraine.
- The Giraffe radars can integrate with RBS-70 SAM systems already in use by Ukraine, enhancing air defence capabilities.
- The radar system can track up to 20 targets with a range of 1.2 to 50 kilometres.
- Jonathan views this as positive news, strengthening Ukraine's air defence network.
Analyst summarises continued European aid and Russia's goal of Ukrainian subjugation
🎦 30:02-31:11⏩
- An analyst summarizes ongoing European aid contributions:
- Denmark provides another €202 million for Bogdana artillery system construction.
- Netherlands confirms 12 of 19 F-16s delivered, with 7 more to come.
- 13 European leaders and many more via video (including UK's Keir Starmer) reaffirmed support for Ukraine.
- Macron attempted to explain to Trump the need for security guarantees for Putin to adhere to any treaty.
- In a concerning development, the US voted with Russia and its allies at the UN, refusing to condemn the invasion on its third anniversary.
- Public statements from Moscow indicate Russia's ultimate goal remains the complete subjugation of Ukraine, rejecting ceasefires without territorial surrender and aiming for full subjugation.
Trump seeks quick war end regardless of deal quality; Europe understands Trump's approach
🎦 31:12-32:22⏩
- Jonathan interprets Trump's primary aim as simply wanting the war to end quickly so he can claim credit, with the quality of any peace deal being irrelevant to him.
- Russia is actively trying to engage American businesses to revive its economy.
- Russia is not slowing down its war economy and is reluctant to demobilise troops due to concerns about social and political instability.
- Russia views a ceasefire only as an opportunity to regroup and re-equip.
- Jonathan believes Trump is being led into a trap but is indifferent as long as he achieves a superficial "win."
- He concludes that Ukraine is being "sold out by America" and that Europe must prevent this.
- He expresses optimism that Europe understands the situation and is working to ensure Ukraine is not abandoned and will not be bullied by Trump.
France, Germany, Italy, Spain oppose immediate transfer of frozen Russian assets to Ukraine
🎦 32:23-33:32⏩
- Despite widespread calls to transfer frozen Russian assets (around €300 billion) to Ukraine, some major European countries are opposed.
- France, Germany, Italy, and Spain, along with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, are reportedly hesitant.
- Baltic states, Northern Europe, Poland, and Czechia are urging immediate transfer.
- Jonathan notes a significant split within the EU, with the largest economies seemingly resistant to the asset transfer, potentially fearing loss of influence.
France considers nuclear deterrent for Europe and increases defence procurement
🎦 33:33-34:42⏩
- France is reportedly ready to use its nuclear deterrent to protect Europe, particularly as the US threatens to withdraw forces.
- Fighter jets carrying nuclear weapons could be deployed to Germany.
- Freddie O'Commerce calls for Britain and France to extend nuclear protection for Europe's independence from Trump's America.
- The French government has ordered additional defence procurement beyond current budgets, including 30 Rafale fighters and three frigates.
- This increased spending is interpreted as proactive procurement in anticipation of potential US withdrawal from Europe.
Concerns raised over lack of transparency at US Department of Defense under Trump
🎦 34:43-37:03⏩
- Concerns are raised about the lack of transparency at the US Department of Defense (USDOD) under the Trump administration.
- Colby Badwhan notes the USDOD has not held a single press briefing since the Trump administration took office, contrasting it with the Biden administration's regular briefings.
- He criticises the Trump administration for banning press from the briefing room and replacing objective press entities with right-wing media outlets like Breitbart and Daily Caller, further reducing transparency.
- Jonathan agrees that the Pentagon was already relatively opaque under previous administrations, but the situation is worsening under Trump, becoming less transparent.
Report of US withdrawal from Alexandropoli base in Greece proven false
🎦 37:04-39:04⏩
- Jonathan addresses a report from Greek media, citing Turkish and Russian sources, claiming the US was planning to withdraw from its port base in Alexandropoli, Greece.
- He initially reported this with caution, highlighting the need for verification.
- It is now clarified that the report was incorrect and the US is not withdrawing from the Alexandropoli base.
- Jonathan finds it interesting that such stories, even if false, originate and circulate, particularly noting the alleged involvement of Russian and Turkish sources.
- He questions whether this could be a disinformation operation or simply poor reporting.
Wrap up
🎦 39:04-40:08⏩
- Jonathan concludes the news update, thanking viewers for their support.
- He encourages viewers to contribute to the fundraising campaign with Jiggerspaw, reminding them to include "copy ATP for tribe comment" when donating to ensure contributions are correctly attributed.
- He expresses gratitude for the success of the fundraising campaign, noting they are already over halfway to their €10,000 goal in just a few days.
- He ends with thanks and farewells.
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