Ukr War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News: Kursk Withdrawal
Table of Contents 📖
"Americans expect Ukraine to offer concessions to Russia to prove they want peace, or they will consider them unserious. That's the latest line from the Russian appeasers in Washington. It's as if they were always Ukraine's enemy and not an ally"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:25⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to another video and after a false start (cup of tea!) he's wearing a Canadian NHL top in solidarity with Canada.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukraine General Staff Report - Daily Losses
🎦 00:25-03:12⏩
Jonathan reviews the daily reported losses from the Ukrainian General Staff, noting that 1,190 Russian personnel were lost on the previous day. This is a relatively high figure and likely indicates there was significant activity on the frontlines. He notes that 18 tanks and 65 artillery systems were lost, which is considerably higher than the daily average, as well as 241 drones. Jonathan explains that this large number of drones is consistent with the ongoing waves of attacks every night and reflects the sheer volume of Shahed-type drones being used.
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Footage of Russian Losses - 144th Special Forces Centre, 72nd Mechanised Brigade and Pantsir S1
🎦 03:12-06:25⏩
Jonathan shares some footage from the 144th Special Forces Centre showing the capture of nine Russian soldiers in Ipakrosk. He then shows a video from the 72nd Mechanized Brigade, which depicts a destroyed Russian convoy. The Russians were attacking using a mix of tanks and ZSTS Akhmat armoured vehicles. Jonathan highlights that the truncated nature of videos posted on Twitter makes it challenging to fully understand the context, making it difficult to get a sense of what really happened. Next, Jonathan shows a screengrab of an explosion that destroyed a Pantsir S1 air defence system. This is a high-value target and its destruction is positive news for Ukraine. He notes the importance of targeting and eliminating modern, expensive systems like the Pantsir S1s, S-300s, and S-400s.
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Kursk - Ukraine Withdrawal
🎦 06:25-12:34⏩
Jonathan reports that the situation in Kursk is concerning, as it appears Ukraine is withdrawing, potentially having suffered troop losses. He explains that operational withdrawals are inherently risky and often lead to equipment losses. There are reports of a captured Abrams tank, which would be a significant setback for the US, who supplied the tank to Ukraine. Jonathan addresses speculation that the US might be responsible for Ukraine's losses in Kursk by withholding intelligence. He acknowledges claims that the US has stopped providing offensive intelligence to Ukraine, preventing them from effectively targeting enemy troops and equipment. This has potentially allowed the Russians to retake Kursk. Jonathan questions the practicality of the US actively providing intelligence to Russia. He finds it difficult to believe that the US would switch sides so abruptly, given their long-standing support for Ukraine. Jonathan then shares a user comment from "Tim White" who suggests that the withdrawal from Kursk is linked to a loss of US intelligence. Jonathan explores the possibility of the US providing intelligence to Russia, highlighting concerns about leaks and the potential damage to US credibility. He raises the possibility that the US has simply stopped providing intelligence to Ukraine, rather than actively assisting Russia. He then shares commentary from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) - a US Military Think Tank, which suggests that US actions are responsible for the rapid decline in Ukraine's fortunes in Kursk. He stresses that the ISW is a credible source, unlikely to criticize the US without justification. The ISW believes there's a direct link between the lack of US intelligence and Ukraine's setbacks in Kursk. Jonathan conveys anger and frustration about the situation, emphasizing the devastating impact on Ukrainian troops. He expresses concern for the Ukrainians who are fighting on the front lines. He shares a tweet from a Ukrainian expressing anger about the lack of US support and alleging betrayal. The Ukrainian claims that the Russians suddenly have precise coordinates for Ukrainian troop positions, logistics, and ammunition depots, suggesting a potential intelligence leak. Jonathan questions the US motives, suggesting that they might be pressuring Ukraine to make concessions as part of a secret deal with Russia. He cites reports from Luke Harding in The Guardian, Max24 and Ukraine Frontline. Jonathan questions the ethics of the US demanding concessions from Ukraine while offering nothing to Russia. He describes the US approach as morally reprehensible.
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Andrew Perpetua's Maps - Logistical Challenges
🎦 12:34-16:06⏩
Jonathan references Andrew Perpetua's maps (crediting him) to illustrate the logistical challenges faced by Ukraine. He points out a crucial supply road out of Sudza that was under constant fire, suggesting Russia's strategy is to cut off Ukrainian supply lines.
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Protective Netting
🎦 16:06-16:58⏩
Jonathan highlights the increasing use of protective netting over roads by both Ukrainian and Russian forces to counter the threat of FPV drones. He notes the significance of these adaptations, despite their seemingly simplistic nature. Jonathan suggests that the use of thermite-dropping drones could be a way to counteract the effectiveness of the netting.
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Distance Strikes - Drones, Glide Bombs and Russian Oil refinery
🎦 16:58-22:58⏩
Jonathan reports another massive wave of drone attacks on Ukraine the previous night, with 176 drones launched. He notes a slightly improved interception rate, with 130 drones shot down by conventional means and 42 neutralized by electronic warfare, resulting in only 4 drones reaching their targets. He also mentions damage caused by guided glide bombs, particularly in the Poltava region, where private houses were destroyed and electricity was disrupted. Jonathan expresses frustration that Russian rhetoric about peace contrasts sharply with the reality of civilian suffering. Jonathan discusses the challenges of defending against guided glide bombs, which are more accurate than drones and less susceptible to electronic countermeasures. He notes that their use had decreased on the eastern front but appears to have increased in Sochi. Jonathan then shifts focus to Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian infrastructure, specifically targeting an oil refinery in Novokubyshevsk, Samara region, located approximately 1,000km from the front line. The refinery is a significant facility that produces fuel for supersonic aircraft. Jonathan expresses uncertainty about the extent of the damage but cites reports from Max24.
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Peace Deals, Saudi Arabia Meeting and US Pressure
🎦 22:58-28:29⏩
Jonathan reports that US officials are planning to use a meeting in Saudi Arabia to assess Ukraine's willingness to make concessions to Russia to end the war. He criticizes the US for demanding concessions from Ukraine while seemingly not putting pressure on Russia. He expresses skepticism towards Russia's denial of any planned meetings with US officials in Saudi Arabia, suggesting they may be attempting to downplay the significance of the talks. Jonathan questions why Ukraine is being pressured to make concessions while Russia enjoys impunity. Jonathan speculates about the US motivations, suggesting they might be leveraging their aid to coerce Ukraine into accepting a deal favorable to Russia. He suggests two possibilities: either the US is offering something vital to Ukraine that forces them to comply, or Ukraine is strategically delaying negotiations to buy time for increased European support. He shares a report from The Economist stating that Ukraine will reject any peace deal that limits its ability to re-arm, forces it to recognize occupied territory as Russian, or interferes in its domestic politics. Jonathan criticizes Donald Trump's handling of the situation, highlighting the pressure being put on Zelensky to engage in peace talks. He cites reports that the US is preparing to ease sanctions on Russia, further demonstrating their questionable allegiance. Jonathan expresses concern for Ukraine and criticizes the US for punishing rather than supporting them. He highlights the US expectation that Ukraine must offer concessions to demonstrate a genuine desire for peace, otherwise, they are perceived as being difficult. Jonathan points out the hypocrisy of the US stance, considering Russia to be the aggressor.
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J.D. Vance and Nate Vance
🎦 28:29-29:56⏩
Jonathan discusses an interview in Le Figaro with Nate Vance, cousin of US Vice President J.D. Vance. Nate Vance fought in Ukraine with the Da Vinci Wolves and expresses disappointment with J.D. Vance's stance on the war. Nate criticizes J.D. Vance for not acknowledging his service and for supporting policies that harm Ukraine. Nate feels that the US has betrayed Ukraine and that J.D. Vance is complicit in this betrayal.
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Wrap up
🎦 29:56-32:53⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers for their support and highlights the NATO truck campaign he is running with Rick the Ukrainian and Roman Trokhymets. He encourages viewers to support the campaign and mentions that he will be doing a live stream with them soon. He reminds viewers that they can donate at atpgeo.com/donate Jonathan mentions an article he co-wrote with Brendan Kelly for The Future Murder about the use of drones for assassination, and a petition set up by Talaria to remove Russia from the UN, urging viewers to sign and share it. He expresses his view that Russia's presence on the UN Security Council is a disgrace.
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