Ukraine War Update NEWS: Geopolitical News
Table of Contents 📖
"I think we all need to come to realize at the moment that we are basically in the early stages of World War III... I think it's a case of taking sides and the other side are very clearly taking sides and I think that the administrations across many countries that are allied to Ukraine are realising that we're in this World War III."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:20⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another video, explaining this is the third part of the Ukraine War News Update for 26th April 2024. He mentions an earlier live stream with Daniela from Tochny discussing FPV drone statistics and notes that there are not many topics for this video.
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Russia Threatens to Downgrade Diplomatic Relations with the US over Asset Seizures
🎦 00:20-01:13⏩
Russia has threatened to downgrade its diplomatic relations with the US if the US goes ahead with plans to transfer confiscated Russian assets to Ukraine, according to a statement given to state-controlled media by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov. Jonathan believes this is an empty threat, as relations between the two countries are already at a low point due to the ongoing proxy war in Ukraine.
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Iran and Russia Deepen Military Cooperation
🎦 01:13-02:06⏩
Citing Ukrainian official Anton Gerashchenko, Jonathan reports that Iran and Russia are working on a new military agreement. He goes on to read a statement from Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, made during a meeting with his Iranian counterpart, Mohammad Ashtiani, on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Astana, Kazakhstan. In the statement, Shoigu describes the relationship between Iran and Russia as one of "particularly trusting character." He also speaks about the countries' readiness to "further develop and expand mutually beneficial military and military-technical cooperation." Jonathan highlights the significance of this development for those who view Iran as an enemy, given the country's close ties with Russia. He questions why those who support US action against Iranian drones and missiles aimed at Israel wouldn't also support Ukraine against Russia.
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Putin to Visit China as US Expresses Concerns over Growing Ties
🎦 05:13-09:25⏩
Jonathan reports that Putin will be visiting China in May, noting this as an indicator of increasingly close ties between the two countries. This follows a meeting between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Xi Jinping, in which Blinken stressed the importance of China and the US working as partners rather than adversaries. Blinken also voiced concerns about China's support for Russia's war in Ukraine, stating that the US will take action if Beijing doesn't address the issue. Jonathan picks up on Blinken's use of the phrase "if China does not address this problem, we will," describing it as "really strong rhetoric." He speculates as to what this could mean in practice, before moving on to a different topic.
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British Man Charged with Hostile Activity in the UK for the Benefit of Russia
🎦 09:25-10:07⏩
For the first time, the UK's Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) will be using new legislation created by the National Security Act 2023 to charge a British man with "conducting hostile activity in the UK in order to benefit a foreign state, namely Russia." Dylan Earle is alleged to have planned an arson attack on a Ukrainian-linked property in the UK.
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US Withdraws Troops from Chad and Niger; Concerns Grow over Russian Influence in the Sahel Region
🎦 10:07-12:55⏩
Jonathan reports that the US is withdrawing 75 Green Berets from Chad, a move that follows the earlier withdrawal of US troops from Niger. Quoting security and foreign policy analyst Liam Carr, he explains that while this is largely a "symbolic negotiation tactic," it may be a sign of a wider anti-western shift in the region that could benefit Russia. Carr states that Chad's junta leader, Mahamat Déby, has shown an interest in working with Russia and met with Putin in January. He argues that Russia has historically exploited partnerships with African countries to erode Western influence and establish itself as a global power. Jonathan shares Carr's concerns, describing the situation in the Sahel as "concerning" and noting that it's an area where Russia is "successfully gaining influence."
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Jonathan Analyses the Current Global Situation
🎦 12:55-14:39⏩
Jonathan shares his concerns about the current geopolitical situation, stating that we are "in very concerning times" and possibly in World War III. He lists areas where Russia has been expanding its sphere of influence (Africa, the Caucasus, Eurasian nations, the EU, and the Balkans) and identifies countries and organisations that are allied with or sympathetic towards Russia, such as China, Belarus, Iran, North Korea, Serbia, Slovakia, and Hungary. He also names some of Ukraine's allies: the US, the UK, the EU, Australia, and Japan. He finishes by saying these are "worrying times".
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Jonathan Discusses Anders Puck Nielsen's Views on the Russia-Ukraine War
🎦 14:39-22:38⏩
Jonathan plays a clip from an interview between Jonathan Fink and military analyst Anders Puck Nielsen on the _Silicon Curtain_ podcast. In the clip, Nielsen argues that Western politicians have come to understand that the war in Ukraine will be a long one and are beginning to make longer-term commitments. However, he doesn't believe they fully appreciate how significant this will be, saying, "this is it, there is no turning back." He believes Russia is serious about winning in Ukraine and that failing to capture the country outright, Russia's next aim will be to turn it into a failed state, both as a way to dominate the country and to potentially pave the way for a future invasion. Nielsen points to Russia's targeting of civilian infrastructure in cities like Kharkiv and Kherson as evidence of this aim. He also argues that Western countries need to support the development of a powerful domestic arms industry in Ukraine, not just to help the country defend itself now but also to bolster European security in the long term, given the US's shifting focus to Asia. Jonathan expresses his agreement with Nielsen's points, saying this is "hugely important" and praising Nielsen as "a great military analyst." He encourages viewers to check out Nielsen's work, specifically the interview with Jonathan Fink on the _Silicon Curtain_ podcast.
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Jonathan Analyses Three Recent Newspaper Articles About the War in Ukraine
🎦 22:38-41:04⏩
Jonathan explains he is going to go through three newspaper articles which provide analysis of the current situation in Ukraine.
- The Economist - Jonathan highlights a claim made in _The Economist_ that the $61 billion aid package recently approved by US Congress will buy Ukraine time. The article states that Ukrainian and US intelligence officials are concerned that Ukraine may be on the back foot by the end of 2024, and that, at that point, Putin may be in a position to dictate the terms of a peace settlement. It also warns that Ukraine is unlikely to be able to mount a significant offensive until 2026 or 2027, at the earliest, and that this will hinge on sustained military support from the West. Jonathan expresses concern over whether the necessary levels of support will be forthcoming, particularly given the US presidential election later in the year. He notes that while Trump has been less supportive of Ukraine than Biden, the next Congress, even under a second Biden administration, may be more hostile towards Ukraine than the current one.
- Financial Times - Jonathan goes on to discuss an article in the _Financial Times_ entitled "Military Briefing: Russia's Narrowing Advantage in Ukraine." He quotes a Western official cited in the article as saying that despite potential tactical breakthroughs, Russia is unlikely to overrun Ukraine due to its reliance on old equipment and poorly trained soldiers. He agrees with this assessment, but also voices concerns about the Ukrainian army, which has faced criticism for its battlefield performance following NATO training, particularly in terms of reconciling NATO tactics with Soviet-era doctrine. The _FT_ article also discusses the impact of Western sanctions on Russia's military industrial complex. Jonathan highlights a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) that found Russia is unable to produce enough artillery shells to sustain its current rate of fire. The article concludes by suggesting that even if Russia were to initiate a new round of mobilisation, it would likely struggle to train and equip the new recruits effectively. Jonathan agrees with this view.
- Tony Radakin's Comments - Finally, Jonathan touches on comments made by Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the UK's Chief of the Defence Staff, about the impact of the war in Ukraine on the British military. He highlights Radakin's argument that the UK needs to be "much more ambitious" in its adoption of new technologies. He cites the example of long-range missiles, which Radakin believes the British Army should invest in. He finishes by noting that "every military is looking at what's going on in Ukraine and is adapting their strategies."
Wrap Up
🎦 41:04-41:13⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, admitting this episode was a little "random" as it's made up of excerpts from other videos, but saying he didn't want the material to go to waste. He signs off with a "take care" and a promise to speak soon.
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