Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Zaluzhny & a New Plan, Ivanovets Silence, & Wagner in Africa
Table of Contents 📖
"This is drone footage that's coming from the Ukrainians that the Russians can generally ignore, I mean, yes, it's so obvious they'll ignore it and they do such a good job of ignoring that which is unignorable in other contexts, but you ignore that, pretend it didn't happen and you generally have your domestic audience in the palm of your hand and they'll go along with that."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:23⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to an "extra nuggets and tidbits" Ukraine War Update Extra video. He notes that he's been struggling to find time for frontline updates recently.
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Rumours of Zaluzhny's potential dismissal
🎦 00:23-05:09⏩
Jonathan discusses the rumours surrounding the potential dismissal of General Zaluzhny, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. While acknowledging Zaluzhny's popularity and the successes of the Ukrainian forces, Jonathan explores the possibility of tensions between Zaluzhny and Zelensky, particularly regarding the pace and strategy of the counteroffensive. He emphasizes the importance of avoiding biases in evaluating the situation and highlights the lack of information available to the public regarding internal decision-making processes.
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Zaluzhny's article on modernising Ukrainian war doctrine
🎦 05:09-13:19⏩
Jonathan analyses an article written by Zaluzhny for CNN, where he outlines the need for changes in Ukrainian war doctrine. Key takeaways include:
- The central role of unmanned weapons systems, particularly drones, in modern warfare.
- The need to avoid positional warfare where Ukraine is at a disadvantage in terms of artillery and manpower.
- Acknowledging the strain on Western military aid and the global shortage of ammunition.
- The challenge posed by Russia's ability to mobilise a larger fighting force.
- Criticism of the Ukrainian government for not implementing full mobilisation.
- The need to address bottlenecks in Ukraine's domestic arms production.
- A shift towards targeting Russia's economic capabilities and utilising a combination of cyber and physical attacks.
- Emphasis on the importance of technological rearmament and the development of new training methods.
Mick Ryan's analysis of the potential dismissal of Zaluzhny
🎦 13:19-18:39⏩
Jonathan shares insights from retired Australian General Mick Ryan's analysis of the potential consequences of Zaluzhny's dismissal:
- Impact on Military Leadership: Loss of a charismatic and competent leader.
- Disruption in Chain of Command: Potential instability and impact on the careers of other military leaders.
- Altered Presidential Advice: Loss of Zaluzhny's experience and strategic thinking.
- Strain on Relationships with Allies: Need to re-establish relationships with a new Commander-in-Chief.
- Perception of Instability: Potential for exploitation by Russia and concerns from international partners.
- Propaganda Opportunities for Russia: Reinforces the narrative of a failing Ukraine.
- Zaluzhny's Future: Difficulty in finding a suitable position for someone of his experience and stature.
Jonathan agrees with Ryan's assessment and highlights the potential tragedy for Ukraine if the situation is not resolved.
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Wagner Group's exploitation of African resources
🎦 18:39-22:06⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to the Wagner Group's activities in Africa.
- He highlights a Euromidan Press article detailing how Wagner is generating billions of dollars by seizing control of gold mines in countries like the Central African Republic and Sudan, using this "blood gold" to fund the war in Ukraine.
- He mentions the presence of Ukrainian special forces in Africa targeting Wagner assets, highlighting the strategic importance of disrupting these financial flows.
The sinking of the Russian corvette Ivanovets
🎦 22:06-28:27⏩
Jonathan discusses the sinking of the Russian corvette Ivanovets by Ukrainian sea drones.
- He cites information from various sources, including naval analyst Chris O'Wickey and OSINT analysts.
- The Ivanovets was reportedly sunk near Lake Donoslav, with 32 out of 39 crew members surviving.
- Jonathan notes the silence of Russian state media regarding the incident, suggesting an attempt to downplay the loss.
- He highlights criticisms from Russian military bloggers who question the strategic deployment of the vessel and the lack of adequate defenses against drone attacks.
- He points out the effectiveness of Russia's propaganda machine in controlling the narrative domestically, allowing them to ignore inconvenient truths.
Wrap up
🎦 28:27-28:39⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by thanking viewers for watching.
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