Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Jets for Ukraine, Mad Max Vehicles, Metic ATGM, & Dame to Ukraine
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"I'd rather hear that the war has ended sooner than expected, even if it means admitting that my previous predictions were incorrect, than to hear that my advice could have made a difference if only it had been heeded earlier."
Hello Team!
Jonathan has been busy catching up on frontline updates after missing a couple days. He enjoys a glass of wine with his wife while watching The Last of Us in the evenings.
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Jets for Ukraine
- An article by Shashank Joshi in The Economist discusses which fighter jets would be best suited for Ukraine's needs
- Ukraine has lost 40% of its pre-war fleet and needs a fresh fleet of jets to compete with Russia's air force
- The Swedish Gripen is well-suited as it was designed to defend against Russian jets, can land on short runways, and requires minimal maintenance
- However, there are very few Gripens available (around 150-160 total)
- F-16s are the ideal choice according to Ukraine, as there are over 4,600 built and many countries are retiring them in favour of F-35s
- Concerns include the cost of F-16s, debris on Soviet-style runways damaging the jets, and the need for the latest air-to-air missiles
- Jonathan believes the West is likely already training Ukrainian pilots on the jets they will receive, while publicly debating the issue to make it more acceptable
Damage to Ukraine
Timofey Milovanov provides 10 analogies to help understand the scale of damage inflicted by Russia:
- $143.8B in direct losses, equivalent to rebuilding Los Angeles from scratch
- 185,000 km2 contaminated with explosives, an area larger than Florida
- 5.5M tons of pollutants released, like adding the annual CO2 emissions of the Netherlands
- $36.2B in infrastructure damage, like wiping out London's entire public transport
- $8.1B in energy infrastructure damage, the cost of building 10 Hoover Dams
- 3,000 educational institutions damaged, like wiping out New York City's education system
- 153,000 housing objects destroyed, 1 in 13 houses in Ukraine
- Extensive damage to Donetsk, Kharkiv, Luhansk - like 3 cities the size of Paris being destroyed
- $13.69B in damage to public sector facilities, NASA's budget for half a year
- Healthcare infrastructure losses equivalent to 36 large hospitals
Metic ATGM Footage
Jonathan shows footage of a Russian Metis ATGM being used in Bakhmut. Multiple missiles are fired at a single already smoking target, likely a vehicle. The Metis requires the operator to lie down due to its short tripod.
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Cautionary Thoughts on Upcoming Offensive
Tatarigami_UA shares some cautionary thoughts on the upcoming Ukrainian offensive:
- Expectations should be tempered, the war is unlikely to end quickly
- Ukraine has received substantial support but only enough for a few large offensives
- Clearing the southern region won't necessarily resolve issues in Donbas or Crimea
- Russian forces are actively preparing and should not be underestimated
- Ukraine needs to improve its command and control structure, especially for senior officers
- It's better to hear the war ended sooner than expected than to realize advice could have made a difference if heeded earlier
Mad Max Armoured Vehicles
- Romanians are crowdfunding custom-built armoured vehicles for Ukraine
- One is a former Polish bus converted into a mobile field hospital, positioned near the frontlines
- The project commemorates Oleg Gubal, a Ukrainian soldier who died while being transported to a hospital
- An accompanying truck provides living quarters for the medical staff
- The complex cost €130,000, mostly for medical equipment and armour plating
- An armoured extraction vehicle to transport wounded soldiers to the hospital is also being built
- Many Romanians, even pensioners, have donated generously to the project
- The fleet is scheduled to depart for eastern Ukraine in early May
Wrap up
Jonathan appreciates everyone's support. He mentions his fiction books "Survival of the Fittest", "Metamorphosis" and "Adaptation" set in a dystopian UK beset by a pandemic worse than COVID. He asks viewers to like, subscribe, share and hit the bell icon. He will be back with another video tomorrow.
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