Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"And that's the human cost of this war. So, yeah, war sucks. Russia sucks. Kremlin sucks. Putin sucks. A lot. People die, and they don't need to."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:37⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the first part of his daily update. He explains he won't be doing his normal format for this part as he needs to take his son to rugby. Jonathan then reminds viewers that he includes the Ukrainian general staff figures for Russian losses in the video description.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses 02 March 2024
🎦 00:37-01:12⏩
Jonathan provides the figures for Russian losses for the previous day which are very high - double the average in many categories, including personnel (1160), tanks (16), armoured personnel vehicles (28) and artillery systems (35). Jonathan highlights the losses of vehicles and fuel tanks (65) which is huge.
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Russian Aircraft Losses & Ukrainian General Staff Figures
🎦 01:12-06:12⏩
Jonathan discusses claims that two Russian aircraft (Su-34 and Su-35) were shot down, with later reports suggesting the Su-35 may not have been downed. He addresses concerns about the accuracy of Ukrainian General Staff figures, arguing that they have a vested interest in being truthful to maintain credibility with open-source intelligence communities who generally work in unison with Ukraine. He suggests that visual confirmation of shootdowns 100km behind enemy lines is unrealistic. He cites comments by Oleksiy Arestovych who claimed a plane was downed near Mariupol and provided video footage. Arestovych's claims were questioned as the footage was a couple of days old. Jonathan notes this doesn't mean a plane wasn't shot down, just not the one Arestovych claimed it to be. He explains how he believes it is in Ukraine's interests to be accurate. He highlights Arestovych's comments that for the first time in the war, no Russian aircraft were observed in Eastern Ukrainian airspace for four hours, which would be unusual given their use of glide bombs in their attempts to take territory in the Avdiivka area.
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Russian and Ukrainian equipment losses 01 March 2024
🎦 06:12-08:45⏩
Jonathan analyses the Oryx daily infographic showing visually confirmed Russian and Ukrainian equipment losses for the previous day (01/03/2024), crediting Andrew Perpetua and his team for their work. Jonathan is very impressed by their work and notes how organisations such as the UN are not doing this work. He notes the 6:1 loss ratio in favour of Ukraine and comments on the huge losses sustained by Russia. Jonathan highlights the loss of a UK-provided Coyote Tactical Support Vehicle (TSV) which was abandoned after getting stuck in the mud. He provides an overview of Russian losses for the day, commenting on the vast numbers of tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and armoured personnel carriers. He emphasises that it is not just about the monetary value but the impact of these losses on Russia's ability to prosecute the war.
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Russian and Ukrainian equipment losses 02 March 2024
🎦 08:45-09:56⏩
Jonathan reviews the Oryx daily infographic showing visually confirmed equipment losses for the last 24 hours, which show significant Russian losses. He estimates the ratio to be at least 3:1, possibly 3.5:1 in favour of Ukraine. Ukrainian losses were not high value - a few T-64 tanks, BMP-1s and BMP-2s, an upgraded Dutch YPR-765 armoured personnel carrier and a few pickup trucks. Jonathan lists the Russian equipment losses noting they are not as high as the previous day but include a number of tanks and a large number of BMP-1 and BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles. He reiterates the point that Russia is sustaining huge losses in their attempts to take territory around Avdiivka, Novomykolaivka, and west of Avdiivka. He comments that the Ukrainians are fighting hard but taking significant casualties in the process.
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HIMARS Strikes on Russian Positions
🎦 09:56-11:47⏩
Jonathan discusses HIMARS strikes on Russian troop concentrations, highlighting two recent examples in Olenivka and Trudivske. In Olenivka, a strike on the 155th Separate Guards Marine Brigade (an elite unit) resulted in 12-19 killed and 12 injured, including high-ranking officers. Another strike on a training ground in Trudivske, near Volnovakha, killed around 60 troops, including the commander of the 36th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade. Jonathan emphasises that these strikes targeted both troops and military leadership, which will significantly impact the Russians.
Russians "Capture" Wooden Decoy Radar
🎦 11:47-13:45⏩
Jonathan reports that the Russians claimed to have successfully struck (captured) another decoy, a Nazan radar unit. The radar unit, a Ukrainian AN/MPQ-64 Sentinel radar, was made of wood. Jonathan suggests two possibilities - either the Russians are trying to pass off a decoy as a genuine radar system, or the decoy may contain a radar emitter, making it a cheap and effective way to lure Russian missiles. He explains how decoys can be fitted with cheap radar emitters to give a radar signature. The aim is to bait the Russians into expending expensive missiles and intelligence resources to destroy a worthless target.
Russian Equipment Losses Around Novomykolaivka
🎦 13:45-15:00⏩
Jonathan shows footage of four Russian infantry fighting vehicles and a tank being destroyed near Novomykolaivka as they attack Ukrainian positions. He notes that Russia is experiencing heavy equipment losses in areas where they are making territorial gains.
Jonathan's Reflections on the War
🎦 15:00-15:22⏩
Jonathan reflects on the heavy losses on both sides. He acknowledges that while Ukrainian forces are enduring immense hardship and casualties, the losses inflicted on the Russians are unsustainable. He emphasises he is not trying to downplay the difficulties faced by the Ukrainians but highlights the bigger picture of the conflict.
Russian T-90 Losses
🎦 15:22-16:11⏩
Jonathan provides further evidence of Russian losses, showing footage of destroyed T-90 tanks, including the advanced T-90M variant, near Avdiivka and Yampolivka-Terny. He points out that Russia has lost a significant portion of its T-90M fleet, which numbered only 100 before the war.
Ukrainian Bradley Survives ATGM Strikes
🎦 16:11-17:40⏩
Jonathan highlights the resilience of Ukrainian equipment, showcasing a Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicle that survived two anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) strikes in the Avdiivka area. One missile was defeated by the Bradley's Explosive Reactive Armour (ERA). The second missile struck the turret, causing minimal damage. The vehicle remained operational, and the crew was unharmed. Jonathan notes this is an example of why Ukraine is happy to receive this type of military aid, even if it is older equipment. He discusses debate on Twitter about the US military's decision to replace Bradleys with Strykers, which are considered less capable in some areas. He quotes Chuck Pfarrer, who described the Bradley as "shrugging off" the ATGM hits.
Drone Attacks on St Petersburg and Crimea
🎦 17:40-20:49⏩
Jonathan reports on drone attacks earlier in St Petersburg, which led to two explosions at the port of Bronka. The attacks caused the implementation of the "Carpet Plan" at Pulkovo Airport, grounding all civilian air traffic. He notes that this is indicative of increased Ukrainian drone activity over Russian territory, including Crimea. He highlights that there were no reports of missiles or drone attacks on Ukraine the previous evening, which may suggest a shift in tactics by Ukraine. He suggests Ukraine has been increasing its drone capabilities and predicts an increase in attacks on Russian and occupied territories. Jonathan states that there was a large explosion at the Russian-occupied port of Feodosia in southeast Crimea. He notes that air defences were active but believes a second, more powerful ground-based explosion indicates successful strikes on targets in Crimea. There were reports that an oil base was attacked, although it's unclear if this refers to a Pantsir or S-400 air defence site. Jonathan says that while the Russians claim to have shot down all 38 drones, local reports suggest 50-60 explosions, casting doubt on the Russian claims. The Crimean bridge and a bypass north of Feodosia were closed, indicating significant activity. Jonathan predicts more frequent and larger-scale Ukrainian drone and missile attacks on Russian targets.
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Civilian Casualties in Odessa
🎦 20:49-21:57⏩
Jonathan discusses the aftermath of a Russian missile attack in Odessa two nights prior. He shows images of a collapsed building, noting that the death toll has risen to 10, including a three-year-old and a four-month-old. He expresses sadness over the loss of innocent lives, particularly the mother and her child killed in the attack. Jonathan shows a poignant photograph of the mother leaving the maternity ward with her newborn child.
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Wrap up
🎦 21:57-22:09⏩
Jonathan ends the video, reminding viewers that war has a devastating human cost. He condemns Russia, the Kremlin, and Putin for the suffering and loss of life.
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