Ioffe on Putin & US Presidents
Table of Contents 📖
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"Putin, as somebody who is, again, a specialist in communicating with people, sees Trump as a very easy subject to manipulate, somebody who is vain, somebody who is easily distracted, somebody who is quite stupid."
Introduction
Jonathan introduces an interview with Julia Ioffe from September 2022 where she analyses how Putin has seen and interacted with different US presidents - Bush, Obama, Trump and Biden. He notes how the first three were manipulated in various ways, while Biden has taken a different approach and not played Putin's games.
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Putin as a "specialist in communicating with people"
Ioffe explains that as a former KGB agent, Putin specialized in communicating with and manipulating people. He shapes himself to whoever he is talking to. With Bush, a born-again Christian, Putin brought a personally meaningful cross and told a story about his devout mother to connect with him. This led Bush to say he "looked into his eyes and saw his soul." Putin can also project strength and be standoffish when useful.
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Putin's view of Obama
To Putin, Obama was young, naive and black, which Putin did not respect, seeing him as someone who could be easily outmaneuvered. Racist memes about Obama circulated in Russia. Putin thought Obama's failure to enforce red lines in Syria showed he was weak, which emboldened Putin to invade Crimea, thinking Obama wouldn't do much in response.
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Putin and Trump
Putin saw Trump as vain, easily distracted and quite stupid - an easy subject to manipulate. He used flattery, disinformation (e.g. about Ukraine and Crimea), and election interference to influence Trump. Russian officials saw Trump as a "wrecking ball" weakening America and NATO from the inside. The Helsinki summit where Trump said he believed Putin over US intelligence was a huge win for Putin. Seeing the January 6th Capitol attack, Putin likely thought America was on the brink of collapse and too consumed with internal problems to counter Russian moves in Europe.
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The Biden administration's approach
Having dealt with Putin as VP and bringing in experienced foreign policy experts, Biden understood a "reset" with Putin was impossible. They aimed to contain Russia until Putin was gone, realizing nothing positive was possible with him in charge. When intelligence showed Putin preparing to invade Ukraine, the Biden team put out diplomatic "off-ramps" but Putin kept escalating. Though frustrated this crisis would consume Biden's presidency and derail other priorities, they resolved to strongly support Ukraine and punish Russian aggression, avoiding the weak responses of the past.
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Wrap up
Jonathan recommends watching the full 1 hour interview, which remains highly relevant despite being from September. He appreciates Ioffe's insights into how Putin manipulated past presidents to project strength despite Russia's limitations, which the Ukraine war has exposed. He notes Poland could likely defeat Russia now. Jonathan thanks viewers for their support and engagement with the channel.
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