Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"If you're thinking about the Kellogg and Flights plan for Ukrainian peace negotiations with the Trump administration, bringing on this idea that if you're forcing Ukraine to the table, and if you don't go to the table with Russia, then we simply won't, the US this is, give you any more aid. So forcing to the table. But this is what the russians generally think though"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-03:20⏩
Jonathan starts the video by explaining why he is appending this bit to the beginning of his first daily news video for the day. He has been having issues with his videos getting restricted on YouTube because of the use of footage that shows cluster munitions exploding. He believes it is an automated system that is flagging the videos because of the content. He explains that he has to go through an appeal process that can take up to 3 days which delays the upload of his videos. The video footage in question, he claims, does not show any people being injured or dying and is simply footage of cluster munitions exploding in a field. Jonathan also mentions that YouTube is currently deleting comments randomly at the top of his comment thread. He advises viewers to check their comments and make sure they are still there and how to do this. Jonathan then welcomes viewers to his ATP Geopolitics video and gives the date for the video.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses
🎦 03:20-04:44⏩
Jonathan outlines the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses for the day before. He reports that 1110 personnel were lost, 11 tanks, 9 armoured personnel vehicles (APVs), 43 artillery systems, 1 multiple launch rocket system, 1 anti-aircraft warfare system, 61 vehicles and fuel tanks and 9 pieces of special equipment were lost. He notes that the loss of personnel and tanks is fairly average but that the loss of artillery systems and vehicles is higher than usual. Jonathan speculates that this might suggest a slight downtick in activity. He states that while a quieter day on the front line, the losses are still pretty bad.
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Footage of an ATACMS strike on a Russian S-300 air defense system near Manush-Mariupol
🎦 04:44-07:20⏩
Jonathan presents footage of a Russian S-300 air defense system being hit by a strike. He believes the strike was carried out by a ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) and that multiple missiles were fired in order to destroy the target. The system was located near Manush-Mariupol, approximately 80 kilometers from the front line. Jonathan explains that this strike is believed to have caused the explosions seen at night in the area. There has been some confusion as to the exact location of the strike, with some suggesting it was at Mariupol Airfield but Jonathan points out that the footage suggests the strike was a bit further west. Jonathan concludes that the strike appears to have at least largely damaged the S-300 system, destroying at least two launchers and a radar.
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Significant fires in Russia
🎦 07:20-08:55⏩
Jonathan shows footage of fires in Krasnodar, Crimea and Novotavolzhanka in the Belgorod region of Russia. Jonathan highlights that fires are ripping through several places in occupied Ukraine or in Russia itself. He explains that the fires in Novotavolzhanka are getting too close to residential houses and that the emergency services are struggling to contain them. Jonathan notes that in peacetime, conscripts were often used to help tackle fires during the summer but that their attention is elsewhere at the moment. As a result, there are potentially too few people available to tackle these emergencies.
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Russian strike on a Ukrainian training ground
🎦 08:55-10:35⏩
Jonathan presents footage from War Vehicle Tracker that shows a Russian strike on a Ukrainian training ground. The training ground is reportedly for the 13th Brigade of the Ukrainian National Guard, located near Peresichny in Kharkiv Oblast. The footage shows coaches dropping off troops at the training ground and then cluster munitions exploding in the area. Jonathan notes that there are casualties, as ambulances were seen arriving at the scene. He concludes that this is not good news for the Ukrainians. He states that the medium range reconnaissance drones being used in the attack are a huge problem for the Ukrainians.
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10th anniversary of the MH17 tragedy
🎦 10:35-12:09⏩
Jonathan mentions that it is the 10th anniversary of the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine. The flight was shot down by a Buk surface-to-air missile and 298 passengers and crew were killed. Jonathan mentions that British journalist Jonathan Oliphant was one of the first on the scene and helped to identify the missile used in the attack. Jonathan also notes that the Netherlands was particularly affected by this tragedy, as 196 of the victims were Dutch citizens. He suggests that this is a significant reason why the Netherlands is so staunchly supporting Ukraine. He also mentions that three people have been charged with war crimes in absentia in connection with the attack, including Evel Gerken.
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Russia and Ukraine set to swap 180 prisoners
🎦 12:09-12:56⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia and Ukraine are set to swap 180 prisoners in a deal brokered by the UAE. The deal was expected to take place in the morning of July 17th, Ukraine time, so it is possible that it has already happened. Jonathan notes that this is good news for the POWs involved.
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Ukraine lists 42,000 citizens in its unified register for persons missing under special circumstances
🎦 12:56-13:22⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine has a unified register for persons missing under special circumstances, which includes people who have disappeared due to war, occupation, natural and man-made disasters. He notes that 42,000 people are currently listed in the register and wonders how many of those are children. He states that this is part of the "hybrid war efforts" being waged against Ukraine.
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Ukrainian cyber attack on Russian websites
🎦 13:22-14:54⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian intelligence and cyber volunteers attacked nearly 100 Russian websites, with 39 of them still down as of the previous day. The attack targeted companies linked to the Russian state sector, including those involved in the war against Ukraine. The websites now display a pig's head and a 404 error message. Jonathan states that this is a useful way of reminding Russian citizens that they are involved in a war, that their own citizens are being sent to their deaths by a dictator, and that it helps to debilitate the Russian war machine. He concludes that this is a very effective tactic for the Ukrainians.
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Accidents at Russian power plants
🎦 14:54-15:40⏩
Jonathan reports that there have been accidents at the Rostov nuclear power plant, the thermal power plant in Borachia, and the Balaclava thermal power plant in Sevastopol. He states that it is unclear whether sabotage was involved but that high temperatures and heat have caused some problems. He also notes that the Rostov nuclear power plant is back online. He concludes that this signifies the strain on the Russian civil infrastructure.
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Blackout in Yevpatoria, Crimea
🎦 15:40-16:10⏩
Jonathan reports that there was a blackout in Yevpatoria, Crimea, last night. He states that this is indicative of the problems being faced in occupied Crimea in trying to maintain normality.
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Russian companies increase recruiting in Africa
🎦 16:10-17:45⏩
Jonathan reports that Russian companies have exponentially increased their recruiting in Africa. He states that this is due to a labor shortage in Russia, caused by the war in Ukraine. The Russian government has sent many men to die in Ukraine, creating a lack of manpower in various sectors of the economy. As a result, companies are forced to hire workers from Africa to keep the wheels turning. Jonathan notes that this is another sign of the many problems being faced by the Russians as they continue to prosecute the war.
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Wrap up
🎦 17:45-21:06⏩
Jonathan signs off his video by stating that it was a shorter one today due to the lack of activity. He mentions that he will check the socials for any further news and then discusses the Republican National Committee (RNC) convention, where some speakers have suggested that Ukraine should be pressured to negotiate a peace deal with Russia. Jonathan shares an opinion from a Russian source that suggests the Russians will not stop until they have taken over Ukraine and that they will then move on to attacking Europe. Jonathan also shares a comment about how Russian state TV is war gaming the effects of a nuclear war, suggesting that the UK would be the first to be attacked. He concludes that negotiations with Russia are pointless and that they will not keep their word. Jonathan reiterates that Russia has broken every treaty they have ever signed and that they are the ones who have consistently violated agreements. He ends the video with his usual call to like, subscribe and share.
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