Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
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Table of Contents 📖
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"Avdiivka is a nightmare. It is difficult to convey in words what is happening in the Avdiivka direction. But there is a real horror there."
Hello Team!
Jonathan had a good night's sleep and a lie in. His son's football game is not on today. He feels good and life is better, but not for many others as the war continues.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses at Avdiivka
- Ukrainian general staff figures show 790 Russian personnel lost, 16 tanks, and 55 armoured personnel vehicles (APVs) destroyed in one day
- Geolocated footage from Andrew Perpetua shows phenomenal Russian equipment losses at Avdiivka over the past 11 days
- Russians have successfully mine-cleared fields in Avdiivka by driving vehicles into the mines
- Two sets of figures from Perpetua show a 5-1 and 1.5-1 loss ratio of Russian to Ukrainian equipment, with many Russian infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) and APVs lost
- A Russian source claims after a recent failed offensive at Avdiivka, they had to pause due to heavy losses - 4 tanks and countless APVs and infantry
- Numerous videos show widespread destruction of Russian vehicles around Avdiivka
Helicopter Losses at Berdyansk and Luhansk
- Debate over the extent of damage to Russian helicopters at Berdyansk and Luhansk airfields from Ukrainian ATACMS strikes
- GeoConfirmed states at least 21 Russian helicopters were destroyed or damaged, higher than initial public estimates
- Damage assessment is challenging due to limitations of commercially available satellite imagery
- A Russian Telegram channel claims only one helicopter was not destroyed at one of the airfields
- Russian propagandists admit "practically nothing left undamaged" from the strikes
Other News
- A Russian border guards unit destroyed an attack aircraft on the Bakhmut flank
- A Russian IL-76 military cargo plane caught fire and crashed during takeoff in Tajikistan, possibly due to lack of maintenance
- Public buildings in Yekaterinburg, Russia suffered fires recently
- Russia used new tactics to hit Ukraine overnight, launching cruise missiles and anti-aircraft missiles simultaneously into several regions, killing at least one
- A school and apartment buildings in Kostantynivka, Donetsk were hit by Russian S-300 missiles
- Explosions were heard in occupied Melitopol and Crimea
Fractures in Russian Propaganda
- Propagandist Satanovsky, on Vladimir Solovyov's channel, criticised Maria Zakharova, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, and Mikhail Bogdanov, deputy foreign minister
- Solovyov fired Satanovsky for these comments, apologising to Zakharova and Bogdanov
- This incident highlights fractures in the unity of messaging in Russian state media, reflecting pressure from lack of success in the war
Other Points
- Ukraine's success at Avdiivka is not getting as much media coverage as Russian gains do, according to Zelenskyy and others
- Ukraine has planted 500,000 mines on its northern border, making it 16 times better protected than in February 2022
- Russia has reduced its aircraft presence at Belarusian airfields
- Putin visited the Russian army headquarters in Rostov, listening to a report "over an empty map", possibly indicating the poor state of the Russian military campaign
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and their marvellous support. He apologises for the longer video. The next one will be out shortly.
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