Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-03:37⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a frontline update for 16/01/2024 and discusses an article by Andreas Kluth from Bloomberg about the Davos meeting and the concept of a stalemate in the war. He highlights Zelensky's denial of a stalemate, which Jonathan believes is partially true due to differing attrition levels and Russian losses in the air and Black Sea. Jonathan also mentions that many analysts, including himself, believe that the West has not provided sufficient support to Ukraine. He expresses concern over the war becoming a bipartisan issue in the US, citing a comment from a viewer named Brian Ivey who has experienced this firsthand.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Kreminna Front
🎦 03:37-07:26⏩
Jonathan reports, citing mapping sources, that Russian forces have been pushing towards Makivka, west of Ploshchanka, with potential advances and increased offensive activity. He acknowledges discrepancies between mapping sources but notes that Russians are close to Mykhailivka. Further south, in the Siverskyi Forest, Jonathan (crediting JR for map updates) highlights small Russian advances. He observes that topography in the area makes significant gains challenging for either side, especially around Bilohorivka.
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Bakhmut Front
🎦 07:26-08:27⏩
In Bakhmut, Jonathan reports Russian advancements in the eastern part of Bohdanivka, estimating Russian control at 20-30%, with the centre remaining contested. He mentions a recent Ukrainian repulsion of a large Russian mechanized attack.
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Avdiivka Front
🎦 08:27-10:08⏩
Jonathan notes no significant changes in Avdiivka, despite ongoing Russian attacks. However, he cites a Getty report claiming Ukrainian forces regained positions northeast of the frontline, possibly near the industrial zone's water treatment facility. He reiterates that a lack of changes generally favours Ukraine but emphasizes the importance of game-changing aid for Ukraine to avoid a potential Russian-forced negotiation, driven by attrition and international pressure.
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Donetsk Front
🎦 10:08-13:31⏩
Jonathan observes substantial Russian gains south of Novomykhailivka, highlighting the discrepancy between mapping sources (Syriac Maps and Andrew Perpetua). He emphasizes the importance of a road connecting Vuhledar, Kostyantynivka, and Pobjeda, which the Russians aim to interdict. He speculates that Novomykhailivka might become isolated like Bakhmut and Avdiivka due to the Russian strategy of encirclement and overwhelming defenders with mass. Jonathan also briefly mentions that Niu-York was hit by three glide bombs.
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Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro River Delta Fronts
🎦 13:31-13:31⏩
Jonathan reports no changes on the Zaporizhzhia front or in the Dnipro River Delta area.
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Kinburn Spit
🎦 13:31-15:53⏩
Jonathan acknowledges the challenging situation in the Kinburn Spit, hinting at a possible Ukrainian withdrawal, although no decision has been made. He explains that Russians have been fortifying their positions and laying wired communications to prevent Ukrainian interception, making it difficult for Ukraine to operate in the area. Jonathan points out the high casualty numbers for both sides but emphasizes the strategic advantage of inflicting significant losses on the Russians. He questions whether maintaining a presence on the spit remains strategically viable given the difficulties in evacuation and the risk of becoming an easy target for the Russians.
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Russian Objectives in 2024: An Analysis
🎦 15:53-24:47⏩
Jonathan analyses a long thread by Vadim Skibitsky, Deputy Chief of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, about Russia's objectives for 2024:
- Capturing Donbas: Russia aims to capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, which will require significant advances.
- Securing Occupied Territories: They intend to hold onto the occupied territories of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and parts of Kharkiv.
- Neutralising Ukrainian Capabilities: Russia aims to destroy Ukraine’s air defence, aviation, and military-industrial complex to hinder Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.
- Foreign Support and Military Industry: Iran seeks modern aviation equipment from Russia in exchange for military cooperation, while North Korea continues to supply artillery shells. Jonathan highlights concerns over China supplying components, including electronics, for Russian weapons.
- Targeting Ukrainian Infrastructure: While focusing on military targets, Russia maintains the capability to attack Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. He also mentions reports of Russian drones conducting 3D mapping of Ukraine.
- Mobilisation and Equipment: Despite facing challenges, Russia prioritizes restoring and deploying older equipment from storage alongside new production. They are also actively recruiting and mobilizing personnel, with an estimated recruitment rate exceeding their losses. This suggests they are building their forces for a potential offensive, although Jonathan doubts the quality of their personnel and equipment.
Wrap up
🎦 26:43-27:11⏩
Jonathan expresses excitement and nervousness about his planned trip to Ukraine next month. He hopes to provide valuable insights and accurate reporting from the ground.
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"As difficult as it is for Ukrainians, it's pretty harsh to say this, but they are essentially being used in order to extract a cost on the Russians, and as long as that cost, that ratio, is to Ukraine's advantage, they'll probably keep the troops there."
