Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"I'm optimistic for this year for Ukraine but I also think we should be realistic and there's not going to be a single magic wand moment when Russia collapses"
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides the latest figures on Russian losses according to Ukraine, which show a slight uptick in personnel losses to 670. Other losses include 2 tanks, 10 APCs, 6 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 10 drones, 15 vehicles and 2 pieces of special equipment. 10 out of 11 Shahed drones were taken out overnight by Ukrainian air defences. Jonathan expresses concern that Russia may be storing up missiles and drones to hit the coming Ukrainian counter-offensive with barrages.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses and Hits
Images show a Russian Buk air defence system being destroyed in Donetsk Oblast. Reports indicate Moscow hospitals are struggling to cope with the influx of wounded Russian soldiers, facing medicine shortages, low morale and overstretched staff. Corruption is rife with doctors selling drugs on the black market. There are rumours of a bridge being destroyed in Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the Obichna river. A plastics plant in Dzerzhinsk, Russia suffered a major fire, possibly due to partisan activity. Russians are using older guided FAB-500 bombs on the front, but their accuracy seems poor based on limited Ukrainian footage. Significant damage to buildings in Vuhledar from possible guided bomb strikes is shown.
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Civilian Evacuations and Tensions
Mysterious bright lights were seen over Kyiv, possibly a meteorite or satellite debris, triggering air raid sirens. Similar sightings occurred in Belarus. In occupied Kherson, Russian collaborators are being forced to sign agreements prohibiting them from leaving their districts, contradicting claims of "liberation". Genuine civilian evacuations are occurring in Tokmak, Zaporizhzhia Oblast amidst rising tensions and expectations of a coming Ukrainian counter-offensive in the area. People are leaving with their valuables, fearing being caught in a war zone soon.
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Counter-Offensive Outlook and Military Aid
UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace expressed optimism that Ukraine is in a stronger position for the coming counter-offensive than media reports suggest. He said Ukraine will not be rushed and shared figures on NATO training of Ukrainian troops - 29,000 in 2022 and 9,000 so far in 2023. Wallace stated the Russian Black Sea fleet is "stuck" and cannot move freely due to the Ukrainian coast being "riddled" with Harpoon and other anti-ship missiles. He also highlighted how the war has exposed weaknesses in European militaries, with one Mediterranean country finding its tanks are "all broken". Ukraine continues to receive significant military aid:
- Another IRIS-T air defence system from Germany (2 of 4 promised now delivered)
- Turkish TRLG-230 guided missiles with 150km range for use by Ukrainian artillery
- $325M package from the US including HIMARS, ammunition, TOW anti-tank missiles, and precision aerial munitions (likely JDAMs)
- Swedish RBS-70 air defence systems and PS-70 radars
- 50 more Finnish-made Rosomak IFVs ordered by Ukraine (200 total), 50 BMP-1s and 60 PT-91 tanks from Poland
Training of Ukrainian troops on Western equipment like Stryker vehicles is ongoing, showing combined arms manoeuvres on dry ground. Large numbers of Ukrainian soldiers are seen training, boosting optimism for the counter-offensive.
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Geopolitics and Sabotage
A Russian bank based in Hungary has withdrawn from the country after facing sanctions pressure. Hungary is facing pushback from the US and EU on its neutral stance. President Zelenskyy will address the Mexican Congress to try to win their support, after previous efforts by the German President and US Ambassador led to arguments. A documentary by Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland accuses Russian "ghost ships" of engaging in sabotage of undersea cables and wind farms in the North Sea. Dutch intelligence has also warned of Russian activity near critical marine infrastructure.
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Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for their support and says he will return later for a mapping update. He signs off with "toodlepips".
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