Ukraine War BREAKING NEWS: Russian Submarine Sunk, S-400 Battery Destroyed
Title:Ukraine War BREAKING NEWS: Russian Submarine Sunk, S-400 Battery Destroyed Topics:Hello Team, Ukrainian General Staff Report on Russian Losses in Crimea, Jonathan's Assessment of the Damage to the *Rostov-on-Don*, Analysis of the Weapons Used in the Attack, Further Details of the Attack from R
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"The Ukrainians have been engaged in this highly destructive campaign of degrading the Russian air defenses across Crimea, and they've done a really good job."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:19⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to an ATP Geopolitics breaking news update on the Ukraine War, emphasizing that the content, previously discussed on a live stream, merits a dedicated video.
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Ukrainian General Staff Report on Russian Losses in Crimea
🎦 00:19-00:54⏩
- The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Ukrainian forces successfully struck an S-400 air defence battery and sank the Russian submarine Rostov-on-Don in the port of Sevastopol, Crimea.
- The attack on the S-400 battery involved four launches and resulted in significant damage.
- Satellite images from a Telegram channel called "Nepro Official" purportedly show burn marks on the docking area where the Rostov-on-Don was last docked.
- The Rostov-on-Don submarine had been undergoing repairs since being damaged by Ukrainian missiles in September of the previous year.
Jonathan's Assessment of the Damage to the Rostov-on-Don
🎦 00:54-01:35⏩
- Jonathan expresses his initial belief that the damage sustained by the Rostov-on-Don in the previous year was beyond economic repair.
- He notes rumours suggesting the Russians had managed to repair the submarine to a seaworthy condition and had even conducted limited trials in Sevastopol.
- Jonathan highlights the strategic significance of striking the submarine while it was docked in Sevastopol, as it would have been much harder for Ukrainian forces to target once it was moved to Novorossiysk.
Analysis of the Weapons Used in the Attack
🎦 01:35-02:06⏩
- Jonathan speculates on whether the attack on the submarine was carried out using drones or missiles.
- He considers the distance between Ukrainian-held territory and Sevastopol (288 km), suggesting the involvement of Ukrainian Neptune or Harpoon missiles.
- Jonathan points out that while it is possible to target Novorossiysk with drones, the greater distance makes it a more challenging target.
Further Details of the Attack from Russian Sources
🎦 02:06-02:54⏩
- Jonathan cites a report from the Ukrainian General Staff confirming successful strikes on a Russian submarine and an S-400 missile system in occupied Crimea.
- The General Staff report states that four launches were significantly damaged in the attack on the S-400 battery.
- Additional information from other sources (B237) corroborates the attack on the Rostov-on-Don submarine, claiming it sank immediately. The estimated value of the submarine is $300 million.
- Jonathan notes that satellite imagery analysis from Kaya Bash Heights in Balaclava appears to show burn marks at the location of the S-400 battery.
The Impact of Ukrainian Attacks on Russian Air Defences in Crimea
🎦 02:54-03:27⏩
- Jonathan observes that Ukraine has been conducting a highly effective campaign to degrade Russian air defenses across Crimea.
- He mentions rumours that Russia has been consolidating its remaining air defenses around Kerch, potentially out of fear of a Ukrainian attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge.
- Despite these efforts, Ukrainian forces continue to successfully target Russian air defense systems in Crimea.
The Significance of the Submarine Loss for Russia
🎦 03:27-04:05⏩
- Jonathan emphasizes the significance of the loss of the Rostov-on-Don, stating that it is a major public relations blow to Russia.
- The sinking of the submarine represents the loss of a quarter of Russia's submarine fleet in the Black Sea.
- Jonathan presents an infographic illustrating the extent of the damage and destruction inflicted upon the Russian Black Sea Fleet throughout the war, highlighting the addition of the Rostov-on-Don to the list of losses.
- There is some uncertainty about the exact number of submarines in the Black Sea Fleet, with Jonathan initially believing there were only three remaining.
Unconfirmed Reports and Speculation Regarding the Attack
🎦 04:05-04:38⏩
- Unconfirmed reports from both Ukrainian and Russian sources suggest that the Rostov-on-Don was targeted and destroyed using a combination of unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) and missiles.
- Jonathan expresses intrigue at the possibility of USVs being involved, given the challenges they would face navigating the booms placed at the entrance of Sevastopol harbour.
Jonathan's Assessment of the Strategic Implications of the Attack
🎦 04:38-05:28⏩
- Jonathan reiterates that the sinking of the submarine is a major strategic loss for Russia, as it effectively removes a quarter of their operational submarine capacity in the Black Sea.
- He speculates that this loss might prompt Ukraine to shift its focus from Sevastopol to targeting Russian naval assets in Novorossiysk.
- Jonathan draws parallels to a recent attack on Morozovsk airbase in Russia, which resulted in significant damage to aircraft, ordnance, and infrastructure.
- He posits that a similar large-scale, coordinated assault involving drones and missiles could be highly effective against targets in Novorossiysk, potentially crippling Russia's naval capabilities in the region.
Jonathan's Concluding Remarks and Praise for Ukrainian Efforts
🎦 05:28-07:11⏩
- Jonathan concludes by reflecting on the success of Ukraine's recent attacks on Russian military targets, particularly those targeting the Black Sea Fleet.
- He reiterates his belief that overwhelming strikes involving large numbers of drones and missiles are highly effective.
- Jonathan commends Ukraine for its strategic thinking and the efficient use of its resources in targeting high-value assets.
- He expresses hope that Ukraine can maintain this momentum and continue its campaign of degrading Russian military capabilities.
Wrap up
🎦 07:11-07:11⏩
- Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and bids them farewell.